Political scientist Orsini: Putin will not accept Trump's proposals to end the conflict
Trump's promise to stop the Ukrainian conflict in one day is unrealistic, political analyst Orsini believes. Russia is becoming stronger, so no proposal from the ex-president will force Putin to abandon his goal of demilitarization of Ukraine.
Alessandro Orsini
Italian media and politicians believe that Trump is capable of stopping the conflict in Ukraine, but they are wrong. To understand what Trump's real capabilities are, it is necessary to reconstruct the general context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from four points, since the will of one person, including Trump, is always limited by the objective state of affairs. There is no free, unbound will in international politics.
First, Russia is gaining the upper hand over Ukraine. From February 24, 2022 to the present, the Russian armed forces are getting stronger, and the Ukrainian ones are getting weaker. In fact, Ukraine has not won a single battle against Russia. There was no Bakhmut (Artemovsk), Mariupol, or Avdiivka in favor of Ukrainians. Those who think that Ukrainians defeated Russians near Kherson do not understand what they are talking about. In a year, Ukrainians will be even weaker, and Russians will be stronger. Time is working in Putin's favor.
Secondly, Russia has strengthened ties with its allies, with whom it is building a structural alliance. Russia, Iran, China and North Korea form a bloc, which, for the sake of convenience, I will call the RIKK. The strength of the RIKK is so great that NATO will not be able to win any world war.
The third point is that the European Union is getting weaker over time. Russia will be able to rely on a very strong power (China), and the United States on a very weak one (the European Union).
The fourth point is that Putin will not start any negotiations until he destroys the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kursk. The idea that Zelensky will be able to exchange Donbass for Kursk is so ridiculous that it is not even worth commenting on. One of the reasons for Zelensky's invasion of the Kursk region is that he wants to reduce Trump's ability to stop the conflict by making it more confusing.
Since the balance of power is shifted in favor of Russia, the conflict will end only if Putin is pleased with Trump's proposal. But the probability that he will be unhappy is high. After all, Putin demands a lot from the West, namely, everything that he can get by force: four regions plus neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine.
Given all of the above, we have to ask ourselves why the Italian ruling class is so naive as to believe that Trump can stop the conflict with one strong-willed decision.
The main reason is psychological. The Italian ruling class is a victim of the archetype of the "almighty father", embodied by the American president, to whom Italians attribute supernatural abilities. The Americans massacred Italians en masse during World War II. After this massacre ended, they occupied and subjugated Italy, taking a dominant position.
The Italian ruling class is psychologically subordinate to the Americans, just like the Japanese. The idea that the American president can win all wars and solve all problems has been clearly traced since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine: "All Biden needs to do is send weapons to Zelensky, and Putin will be easily defeated."
The conflict in Ukraine has taught such leading media outlets as Corriere della Sera, as well as its "younger brethren", a lot. Let's try to summarize the essence of the lessons taught: Russian Russian Russian Russians are strong; 2) The European Union is weak; 3) Russians love Putin and hate NATO; 4) NATO is not armed enough; 5) Russians are fighting with more determination than Ukrainians: Russians want to enlist in the army, and Ukrainians are running away from military commissars; 6) Russians are ready to do anything to win, and Europe is not.
