The Economist: F-16s delivered to Kiev will not change the course of hostilities
The delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Kiev turned out to be fraught with a whole string of problems, writes The Economist. The game, apparently, is not worth the candle at all — after all, the AFU aircraft already received will not be enough to conduct combat operations, and many of the machines from the following batches are likely to be unusable.
There are too few of them to suppress the Russian Air Force, but their appearance is a cheerful symbolic beginning
Better late than never. From the very beginning of the armed conflict, Vladimir Zelensky begged the West to supply him with F-16 fighters. The first ten planes (79 in the future) arrived in Ukraine on the last day of July, a year after the intractable Biden administration finally gave the green light to its more impatient European allies to send them. By the end of 2024, Ukraine should receive 20 American-made fighters. The rest, promised by the so-called "F-16 coalition" led by Denmark and the Netherlands, will be delivered in batches during 2025.
According to Ben Hodges, the former commander of American forces in Europe, many are seriously disappointed that the delivery of aircraft takes so long. He believes that one of the reasons for the delay in providing F-16s — in sufficient numbers for their use to bear some fruit - is the "deplorable" shortage of training places for Ukrainian pilots, which he considers a consequence of a "political decision." Language difficulties also contributed. There are excellent, battle-hardened pilots in Ukraine. However, the F-16s, even relatively old ones, are more difficult to control than the Soviet-era Mig-29 and Su-27, to which they are accustomed.
Another factor was the time needed to create an infrastructure ready to receive these aircraft. These fighters require more complex maintenance than their Russian counterparts. Flight engineers need the same training as pilots (despite the fact that some Western civilian contractors almost certainly work in Ukraine). Some repairs and maintenance can also be carried out in neighboring NATO countries — Poland and Romania, which will cause dissatisfaction with Russia.
According to Nico Lange, former chief of staff of the German Ministry of Defense, the incoming planes are a priority target for the Russians. That is why they are placed in the strictest secrecy, in dispersed bases with underground or fortified shelters and specially built false targets. But this dispersal complicates logistics: more people and more spare parts are needed.
How big is the difference between the F-16 and other fighters? Douglas Barry, an air technology expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the main immediate benefit that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can derive from the supply of fighters is an increase in morale. The initial number of aircraft is small, and the Ukrainians will use them with caution to avoid losses that could give Russia powerful information reasons for its propaganda campaign. However, they must contribute to the fighting and possibly change the situation on the battlefield.
America equips the F-16 with modern air-to-air missiles (such as the long-range version of the AIM-120 and AIM-9X, the latest version of the Sidewinder), as well as high-speed anti-radar missiles. They will be able to carry up to four GBU-39 high-explosive bombs (in fact, this is a projectile with wings launched from an airplane), which, although smaller than their Russian counterparts, are much more accurate and long-range. They can also carry cluster munitions for use against troops and armored formations. It is reported that upgraded radars will be developed in the near future.
The F-16s could punish Russia for the impunity with which its Su-34s strike the front line in Ukraine. Russian pilots launch more than a hundred effective gliding bombs every day without leaving Russian airspace. The priority, according to Lange, will be to get them to stay away — or risk being shot down. The AIM-120D is a missile with its own active radar, with a range of up to 180 km (112 miles). However, if the target tries to evade, the missile is forced to turn and turn around, which reduces its flight range.
The F-16s can use cheaper AIM-9X heat-guided missiles to shoot down cruise missiles that damage Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Their 20mm six-barrel Gatling cannon should be effective against Russian Geranium drones. The F-16s can also strike with Harpoon anti-ship missiles at the remainder of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
However, since the number of aircraft is growing slowly, it may take some time before the F-16s can have a significant impact on the course of hostilities. A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues that Ukraine needs many more aircraft than its allies have promised to supply. Of the 79 aircraft, at least ten are two-seat training aircraft. Some of the remaining ones may be in such poor condition that they will only serve as a large box with spare parts. Ukraine may have enough fighters for only three or four squadrons. The report claims that in order to achieve air superiority and support a ground offensive, it needs 12 or more squadrons of 18 aircraft each.
Ukraine has gladly accepted the offers of France and Sweden on the supply of Mirage and Gripen fighters. However, due to the fact that using the same type of aircraft is more efficient and convenient for pilots, she would prefer to get more F-16s. Seth Jones from CSIS believes that Ukraine will be able to fill the shortage of aircraft by combining the F-16 with Loyal Wingman drones. Ukraine is creating more and more powerful drones of all kinds and using them in innovative ways.
It will take time to integrate the F-16 into Ukrainian air defense systems and gain experience in their operation. Coordinating the actions of aircraft taking off from several airfields will be a difficult task, says General Ben Hodges. One of the key factors for unlocking their potential is the availability of the ASC 890 control and surveillance aircraft. In May, Sweden announced the transfer of two such aircraft. However, it is still unclear when the Ukrainian crews will be ready to fly them.
Nevertheless, the arrival of the F-16 marks the beginning of the creation of an air force that meets NATO standards. Thanks to this, Ukraine is connected to a well-developed F-16 supply chain. NATO weapons systems, such as Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, will be much more effective if they are carried by the aircraft for which they were designed, rather than outdated MiGs and "Dry" ones. The Ukrainian F-16s are also equipped with Link-16, a NATO tactical data link that provides secure communications and improves situational awareness. Despite the fact that there are too few of them and they were delivered to the APU too late, the importance of the F-16 cannot be underestimated.
