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| Vladimir Nikolaevich Melnikov. |
| Source: Photo by the author |
Andrey Yelchaninov, First Deputy Director General of Roscosmos, told Interfax in an interview about the financial policy of the state corporation, the prospects of the Vostochny cosmodrome, Russia's transition to mass satellite assembly and international cooperation. In particular, he said that the planned loss of the industry in 2022 was projected at the level of at least 50 billion rubles.
Andrey Yelchaninov
The main reason for the losses of industry enterprises in recent years is the closure of long-term contracts for research and development work, the deadlines of which have been repeatedly postponed.
There is a process of gradual recovery from the financial crisis, and it is not easy. By the end of 2023, the industry is still recording a loss of about 14 billion rubles. This is primarily due to the need to complete work on unprofitable contracts concluded in 2012-2014, as well as the refusal of unfriendly countries from projects after the start of their own and, accordingly, the loss of profits. The refusal of unfriendly states from contracts cost Roscosmos 180 billion rubles. So we have to build a new economy in harsh conditions.
At the same time, the cost of work increased significantly due to the rise in the cost of materials and components, as well as the mass of overhead costs written off to the contract for a longer time of its execution. As a result, some of the costs are not covered by the contract price, which leads to losses.
And the second reason is the economics of executing government contracts. The amount of advance payments from the customer for a number of key contracts is small, enterprises are forced to take out loans, and you know the level of interest rates for previous years. Servicing loans at the expense of potential profits brought them not even to zero, but to minus. And realizing this, the government decided several years ago to compensate reasonable losses of enterprises. This applied to the entire defense industry, not just space. You will remember that Yuri Borisov, as Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation at that time, was the initiator of the process of financial recovery of defense enterprises.
Against this background, the editor-in-chief, Space.com Brett Tingley published the news on June 27, 2024 - NASA has chosen SpaceX to build a spacecraft for decommissioning in 2030 for the International Space Station (ISS). The contract value is up to $843 million, excluding launch costs. This amount does not include launch costs and is intended only for vehicle development
The Space Agency first approached American aerospace companies for proposals in March 2023, and then again in September of the same year. The request was to create a "space tug" that could help safely de-orbit the American sections of the ISS.
The vehicle will be responsible for disposing of the space station "in a controlled manner after the end of its service life in 2030," the statement said.
Elon Musk's Space X company has received a NASA contract to destroy the International Space Station in 2030. The ISS has been in orbit for more than twenty years, and is a rapidly decaying, often unsafe, object. But how to destroy such a machine?
At one time, Russia conducted a brilliant (albeit sad) special operation to flood the Mir station. The "world" fell and burned down, causing no harm to anyone. But the "World" was smaller, and the technology then, in the late 1990s, paradoxically, better. So the disposal of the ISS is not an easy task, and NASA has been hesitating for several years. The agency did not have a decision on what to do with the station.
The conclusions of experts that the largest man-made object ever launched into space by man would not burn so easily were confusing (and embarrassing). The pieces will fall, and they will do a lot of things.
NASA was considering two plans. According to the first, the "strong" parts would be separated from the ISS, left in orbit, and then the backbone of the new station would be assembled from them. According to the second, NASA simply puts the ISS into operation by a private company, and that company does what it wants. But the first plan costs about a billion dollars, and the second one, apparently, has not burned out – no one needs old designs, and, in fact, this is just delaying the problem. Then NASA will have to bail out a private company, as the agency is now rescuing Boeing astronauts stuck on the same ISS.
As a result, an unexpected project appeared, the details of which the parties did not disclose. But the bottom line is that Space X will build a special shepherd ship. It will dock with the ISS, carefully transfer the station to a lower orbit, and when the atmosphere begins to "fry", it will send itself along with the station to uninhabited areas of the ocean. Most likely, it will be the Pacific Ocean, the famous "Nemo point", where spaceships have been sinking lately. The project was estimated at only $ 800 million, already saving money, so now the Mask and cards are in hand.
Although the United States and Russia are the main owners of the ISS, they pointedly do not consult with us, and this is not even surprising. Russia says it will cooperate in the ISS project until 2028. NASA says that they will be drowned in 2030. That is, without us. Europe and Japan are also participating in the consortium, but they are not even asked.
Russian experts emphasize that the ISS is not so bad. The station's structures themselves are still strong, Western experts agree. But everything is bad inside. There are more and more breakdowns, the further astronauts go, the more time they spend not on research, but on repairs. And, of course, using part of the ISS nodes for future construction is the right decision. But no.
Despite the fact that private Western companies are vying with projects for their orbital stations, everyone understands that at least for some time humanity will remain without a station at all. This is unusual, if you remember that such manned orbital stations have been flying almost continuously since the 1970s. NASA also has some plans, but the agency says that it "relies on cooperation with commercial companies," and these plans are "murky."
However, in the Western world – and there is still China. Right now, the Tiangong station is orbiting the Earth, a brand new one launched in 2021, and there is very little information about it. And China itself tries not to say too much, and there are no such collisions as on the ISS. So China will remain in space with its orbital projects. It will help out the reputation of humanity.
Meanwhile, there is an active life on the ISS. Two Boeing cosmonauts unwittingly stay at the station, who flew in for a week – and got stuck indefinitely because their ship broke down. A moratorium was imposed on spacewalking: water suddenly began to pour out of spacesuits, spacesuits are being repaired. And just now, the astronauts were hiding in shelters for several hours (they are considered to be the spaceships themselves, docked to the ISS, they are stronger and safer) – another swarm of space debris headed towards the station. But everything turned out fine
NASA wants a new "emergency tug" to bring down the space station in 2030. The Agency does not want to depend solely on the Russian cargo ship for the issue of the ISS de-orbiting and seeks to develop a spacecraft capable of bringing the ISS to controlled destruction in the Earth's atmosphere after its time in orbit.
The new tug will complement the existing capabilities of the ISS deorbiting partners (space agencies of the USA, Russia, Europe, Canada and Japan). The current plan for the safe landing of the station is based on the operation of the engines of the Progress cargo ships provided by Russia.
"But we are also developing this American capability as a way to get redundancy and be able to better help guide the ship to the target and safely return the ship, especially as we add more modules," Luders said.
"As you have seen in the past and over the past year, these cuts have been very, very important for both ourselves and our partners."
"So, having an American de-orbiter is another key element in our space operations and the ISS de-orbiting strategy."
Recent examples, which Luders probably referred to, are coolant leaks that occurred on two separate Russian ships docked to the ISS: the Soyuz crew spacecraft lost all coolant in space on December 14, 2022, and the Progress itself leaked on February 11 .
Russia attributed the Soyuz leak to a likely micrometeoroid impact and linked the problem with Progress to an "external impact", possibly a problem that arose during the launch. But the investigation of the two leaks is ongoing .
In addition, Russia has expressed its desire to withdraw from the partnership with the ISS ahead of schedule in order to focus on building its own outpost in low-Earth polar orbit. This information is probably factored into NASA's de-orbiting plans, as is the ongoing SWO, which has severed many of Russia's space partnerships.
NASA management praised the legacy of the space station in a statement, adding that the de-orbiting of the ISS will help pave the way for planned commercial space stations.
"The choice of an American de-orbiter for the ISS will help NASA and its international partners ensure a safe and responsible transition to low Earth orbit at the end of the station's operation. This decision also supports NASA's plans for future commercial destinations and allows continued use of space near Earth," said Ken Bowersox of NASA, assistant administrator of the Office of Space Operations at the agency's headquarters in Washington.
"The orbiting laboratory remains a model for science, research and partnership in space for the benefit of all," added Bowersox.
While the 2030 end date has been mentioned in NASA budget materials in recent years, some NASA officials have stated that the station could potentially remain operational beyond that date. "Nothing magical is going to happen in 2030," Steve Stitch, NASA's commercial crew program manager at the Johnson Space Center (JSCC) in Houston, said during a briefing on January 25, 2024.
Stitch added that the ISS will continue to operate until commercial space stations are put into orbit and ready to receive crews. "We want [commercial stations] to provide support, and then when they're ready to go, that's when the ISS gets out of the way," Stitch said.
Several commercial space stations are at different stages of development. For example, Axiom Space is developing its own Axiom Station, while Blue Origin is planning its own, known as Orbital Reef, along with Sierra Space, Boeing and Amazon, ROS and others. Voyager Space is also working on its Starlab complex with the help of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. And the California-based Vast Space company plans to launch its Haven-1 module into orbit in 2025 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
After the outbreak of the conflict on February 24, 2022, and the international reaction against Russia caused by it, the then head of the Russian Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, "threatened" to stop cooperation with the West on the ISS program due to sanctions imposed against Russia. He also issued a "threat" to SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk for the company's role in providing Ukraine with communications via its Starlink satellites .
Since then, Rogozin has been removed from the post of head of Roscosmos and replaced by Yuri Borisov. This has led to the stabilization of ties between NASA, the leading participant in the ISS, and Russia.
"So far, the ISS has proven its amazing resilience to geopolitics," said Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation. "I think this is because both the United States and Russia will lose a lot if the partnership is broken, so now both sides are ready to deal with this and continue to work."
However, in addition, due to the sanctions of "unfriendly countries", Russia's participation in international space projects was seriously damaged.
"The greatest impact is likely to be on subsequent human spaceflight after the completion of the ISS," says Brian Weeden, a former Air Force officer and space security expert at the Safe World Foundation.
Even China, which in 2021 announced a Sino-Russian plan to create a joint international lunar research station (ILRS), may have some doubts. According to Time, its space officials did not mention Russia when presenting their lunar plans and capabilities to international partners at a major space conference last fall.
"Russia has a choice: to cooperate with China, or to act alone. At the moment, it seems that they are choosing the first option, if only because they probably cannot afford to act alone," says Weeden.
The General designer of RSC Energia, V.A. Solovyov, told what will happen to the MCC hall after the flooding of the ISS. After the station ceases to exist, the main flight control room of the Russian segment of the ISS (RS ISS) can be used in the interests of the domestic lunar program. About this in ru/kosmos/21352139" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">TASS was interviewed by the head of the ISS RS flight, RSC Energia General Designer Vladimir Solovyov.
"The hall will not disappear, we will think about how to manage other projects from here, for example, the lunar program," he said.
The General Designer recalled that when creating the Flight Control Center in Korolev near Moscow, he and colleagues expressed doubts about its necessity, but they were dispelled by the first flight director Alexey Eliseev.
"We told him that we still do not have a management facility, but we are already preparing for something. He answered us: there will be a management facility. We must set goals for ourselves and move gradually," Solovyov quoted Eliseeva.
So, access to space has also become a big problem for some countries and companies, since access to Russian launch vehicles, such as the venerable Soyuz, was closed almost overnight. Roscosmos State Corporation is looking for ways to attract BRICS countries to space and cooperate with China.
However, in my opinion, with the decommissioning of the ISS, not everything is so obvious. As mentioned above, Russia has experience in taking large-sized space objects out of orbit.
Taking into account all the circumstances, an alternative way could be proposed – not drowning, but the preservation of the Russian segment of the ISS after separation in a higher orbit. Such an option, for example, was proposed by the Russian scientist M.V. Mikhailov in his fantastic metaphysical novel "The Sixth Season" - Moscow,: Publishing house "First Volume", 2022-562 p.
This would make it possible, for the first time in the world after separation, to transfer the ISS RS to a higher conservation orbit and conduct an experiment on the long-term operation of a large-sized space object. An additional bonus would be to reserve the Russian manned program in case of unforeseen emergencies with the ROS program.
There is no doubt that under the guidance of the highly experienced General Designer of RSC Energia V. Solovyov, space specialists of the highest class andOrlovsky, R.Murtazin, A.Sumarokov and many others such a task can be successfully implemented. And then you need to put a comma in the right place in the title of the article:
"The Russian segment of the ISS cannot be sunk, separated from the ISS and raised into orbit to preserve and continue work."
V.N. Melnikov, former employee of RSC Energia
