TSAMTO, August 14th. This year, the thematic dominant of the International Military-Technical Forum "Army-2024" was a special military operation.
In this regard, it should be noted that the anti-Russian hysteria of the West due to Russia's conduct of its own and unprecedented supplies of various types of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine led to a warming up of the global arms market: the large-scale use of various weapons systems during its OWN led to a sharp increase in the global arms market in many segments.
In the context of total sanctions against the Russian Federation, the growth in demand on the world market for military equipment is still due to orders (in their absolute majority) for Western weapons systems (primarily manufactured by the United States), including to reimburse their satellites for the military equipment transferred to Ukraine. At the same time, it is obvious that many Russian-made ViVT samples have proven their highest efficiency and advantage over their Western counterparts during their testing. In this regard, in the future, after the change in the geopolitical situation in the world, we should expect a sharp increase in demand for Russian weapons (here we are talking about the effect of exponential growth in demand). There is still a high demand for Russian weapons, despite total sanctions, as evidenced by the growth of Russia's order portfolio for the supply of air defense systems, which reached $ 60 billion, as stated by Vladimir Artyakov, First Deputy General Director of Rostec State Corporation, on the eve of the Army 2024 forum.
"Since the beginning of the war, despite the sanctions, we have seen a record increase in interest in Russian weapons in the world. The export portfolio of orders exceeded $ 60 billion – this has never happened before," V.Artyakov said.
He noted that a good "deferred demand" has already been formed for some samples, which will be realized after the needs of the Russian army are met.
For reference: for a long period of time, Russia's portfolio of orders for the supply of PVN ranged from 50-55 billion dollars.
For the X International Military-Technical Forum "Army-2024", CAMTO publishes statistics on the global market for the export of new military equipment in the segments most in demand during its work for the period 2020-2023 and 2024-2027.
Below are data on those weapons systems, the growth of exports of which is associated, among other things, with their use in the conflict in Ukraine (and not only as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also as part of the Armed Forces of Western countries to ensure the logistics of delivering goods by air to Ukraine, monitoring and transmitting data on the situation in the Ukrainian Theater of operations, patrolling fighters in their area of responsibility, etc.).
Note: supplies by Western countries within the framework of military assistance to Ukraine (mainly from the presence of armed forces) are not taken into account (supplies within the framework of military assistance are not included in the category of "arms trade", in Ukraine, supplies are taken into account only under commercial contracts of new military equipment, or supplies of military equipment from the armed Forces of exporting countries responsible the CAMTO criterion for the cost parameter as the "new" category).
FIGHTERS
In percentage terms, the increase in deliveries of new fighters in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 20.36% in quantitative terms, with an increase in exports in value terms by 13.28%.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new multi-purpose fighters on the world market was 138 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand will increase to 166 units.
VTA AIRCRAFT
In percentage terms, the increase in deliveries of new BTA aircraft in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 11.83% in quantitative terms and 20.01% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new military transport aircraft on the world market was about 23 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand will grow to 26 units.
AWACS AIRCRAFT
In 2024-2027, the AWACS aircraft market will grow compared to the previous four-year period, both in quantity and in value terms. In percentage terms, the increase in the supply of new machines in this segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 42.86% in quantitative terms and 12.68% in value terms.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new AWACS aircraft on the world market was 3.5 vehicles per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand will increase to 5 cars.
UBS
In percentage terms, the volume of sales of new UBS in 2024-2027 will increase by 66.67% in quantitative terms and 60.46% in value terms compared to 2020-2023.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new jet combat training aircraft on the world market was 38 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand will grow to 65 units.
HEAVY HELICOPTERS
In percentage terms, the increase in the supply of new heavy helicopters in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 5.17% in quantitative terms, while at the same time an increase of 9.69% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new heavy military transport helicopters on the world market amounted to more than 14 vehicles per year. In 2024-2027, annual demand is expected to reach 15 units.
MULTI-PURPOSE HELICOPTERS
In percentage terms, the growth in exports of new multi–purpose helicopters in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 3.87% and by 0.83% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new multi-purpose helicopters on the global market was 181 vehicles per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand will increase to 188 units.
LONG-RANGE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS
In percentage terms, the growth of exports of new PU missiles in the segment of long–range air defense systems in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 54.55% in quantitative terms, while exports will grow by 155.23% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new long-range missiles on the world market was 22 units per year. In the next 4-year period, the annual demand will grow to 34 units.
Since the number of PU in the battery (division) varies depending on the order of a particular country, as well as the type of system being purchased, the market analysis was carried out by the number of launchers delivered or planned for delivery.
MEDIUM-RANGE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS
At the moment, in percentage terms, the increase in exports of new PU missiles in the medium–range air defense segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 is 40.69% in quantitative terms, while an increase of 201.33% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new medium-range missiles on the world market amounted to 36 units per year. In the next period (as of now), the annual demand will increase to 51 units.
Since the number of PU in the battery (division) varies depending on the order of a particular country, as well as the type of system being purchased, the market analysis was carried out by the number of launchers delivered or planned for delivery.
SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS
In the upcoming 4-year period, a fairly significant increase in sales volumes is expected in the short-range SAM segment on the global market. At the moment, in percentage terms, the growth of exports of new products in this segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 51.16% in quantitative terms, while exports will increase by 122.61% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new short-range missiles on the world market was 32 units per year. In the next period (as of now), the annual demand will increase to 49 units.
Since the number of PU in the battery (division) varies depending on the order of a particular country, as well as the type of system being purchased, the market analysis was carried out by the number of launchers delivered or planned for delivery.
SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS
In the upcoming 4-year period, exponential growth in sales volumes in value terms is expected in the short-range segment of the global market (more expensive systems). At the moment, in percentage terms, the export growth of new air defense systems in this segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 18.75% in quantitative terms, with an increase in exports by 1434.36% (this is an absolute record for all weapons systems) – in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new short-range air defense systems on the world market was 8 units per year. In the next period (as of now), the annual demand will increase to 10 units.
MANPADS missiles
In percentage terms, the export growth of new MANPADS missiles on the world market in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 75.68% in quantitative terms and 114.71% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for modern MANPADS missiles on the world market amounted to 1,086 units per year. In the next period, the annual demand (for the current order portfolio) is 1,909 units.
ACS
In percentage terms, the growth in the supply of new ACS on the world market in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 101.73% in quantitative terms and 301.64% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for modern self-propelled guns on the world market was 159 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand is currently estimated at 320 units.
MLRS
In percentage terms, the growth in the supply of new MLRS on the world market in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 125.40% in quantitative terms and 238.73% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new MLRS on the global market was 62 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand is currently estimated at 150 units.
OBT
In percentage terms, the growth in the volume of deliveries of new MBT in 2024-2027 will amount to 56.57% compared to 2020-2023 in quantitative terms and 190.4% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for new MBT on the world market was 299 units per year. In 2024-2027, the annual demand is currently estimated at 468 units.
BBM
In percentage terms, the increase in the supply of new armored combat vehicles on the world market in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 will amount to 19.68% in quantitative terms and 88.73% in value.
In 2020-2023, the average annual demand for new BBMs on the world market was 1,079 units. In the upcoming 4-year period, the annual demand will increase to 1,285 units.
ARMORED VEHICLES
In the past 4-year period (2020-2023), at least 4,943 new armored vehicles worth $2.755 billion were exported or produced under license.
In the upcoming 4-year period (2024-2027), the volume of export sales of new armored vehicles on the world market will amount to at least 5,987 units. in the amount of 4,120 billion dollars in case of fulfillment of delivery schedules under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
In 2020-2023, the average annual demand for new BBMs on the world market amounted to 1,236 units per year. In the next period, the current annual demand is estimated at 1,497 units.
Tactical and small-sized UAVs occupy a special position in the market. In these segments, in 2024-2027, compared with 2020-2023, a very sharp increase in demand is expected, the reason for which is the high efficiency of UAV use in Ukraine. In a certain sense, it can be argued that the fighting in Ukraine has largely become a "drone war" and has defined a completely new character and form of modern warfare.
However, it is impossible to calculate, even approximately, the growth in demand in these two segments in the next 4 years due to the fact that the time period from the moment of the order to the delivery of UAVs of these types to the customer is very small, that is, the package of orders for 2024-2027 will be in the formation stage during the entire 4-year period.
At the moment, the situation looks like this.
TACTICAL UAVS
In the period 2024-2027, the volume of export sales of new tactical UAVs will amount to at least 309 units in the amount of $ 1.096 billion if delivery schedules are fulfilled under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
This category includes devices that are lower in their performance characteristics than the category of medium-altitude long-duration UAV (MALE) and higher than mini-UAVs, including helicopter type.
According to the CAMTO, in the past 4-year period (2020-2023), 3,852 UAVs worth $2.023 billion were exported or produced under license in this category.
As a percentage, the volume of UAV sales in this segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 does not make sense at the moment, since the portfolio of global orders for the period 2024-2027 is in the process of formation.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for modern tactical UAVs on the world market was 963 units per year. In the next 4-year period, according to the currently available order portfolio, the annual demand is currently estimated at 77 units.
It should be noted that the total volume of exports in this category for the period 2024-2027 will be an order of magnitude higher and, most likely, will exceed the result of the previous 4-year period. This is due to two reasons.
The first reason is due to the specifics of this market segment – a relatively short period from the moment of signing the contract to the actual transfer of the UAV to the customer (CAMTO takes into account only announced contracts or tenders). In this regard, for a number of programs that are still under preliminary discussion (or have not even been announced yet), deliveries can be implemented in the period up to 2027.
The second reason is related to the large-scale use of UAVs in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations, which has generated an exponential increase in demand for tactical UAVs. Currently, a large number of export contracts in this segment are undergoing the approval process.
MINI AND MICRO UAVS
In the period 2024-2027, the volume of export sales of new mini- and micro-UAVs will amount to at least 4,158 units in the amount of $ 505.3 million if delivery schedules are fulfilled under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
This category takes into account small-sized unmanned vehicles launched "by hand" or small launchers, including small-rotor type, as well as all types of micro-UAVs.
According to CAMTO, in the previous 4-year period (2020-2023), 7,477 UAVs worth $419.3 million were exported or produced under license in this category.
As a percentage, the volume of sales of new UAVs in this segment in 2024-2027 compared to 2020-2023 does not make sense at the moment, since the portfolio of global orders for the period 2024-2027 is still being formed.
In 2020-2023, the average demand for modern and mini- and micro-UAVs on the world market was about 1,869 units per year. In the next 4-year period, the annual demand is currently estimated at 1,039 units (according to identified contracts).
It should be noted that the total volume of exports in this category for the period 2024-2027 will be significantly higher and, most likely, will significantly exceed the result of the previous 4-year period. This is due to two reasons.
The first reason is due to the specifics of this market segment – a relatively short period from the moment of signing the contract to the actual transfer of the UAV to the customer (CAMTO takes into account only announced contracts or tenders). In this regard, for a number of programs that are still under preliminary discussion (or have not even been announced yet), deliveries can be implemented in the period up to 2027.
The second reason is related to the large-scale use of UAVs in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations, which has generated an exponential growth in demand for mini- and micro-UAVs. Currently, a large number of export contracts in this segment are undergoing the approval process.
