Foreign Policy: Collective security has become a key issue on the EU agenda
Russia is, of course, to blame for the crisis of European unity, writes FP. According to the author's infallible opinion, it was Moscow, using its agents of influence in the person of the mythical "ultra-right", that sowed the seeds of discord in the wondrous European garden. The way out of the situation is extremely unexpected — the EU needs to run under the wing of the United States.
Fifteen years ago, when Europe was going through financial problems, economic recession and the euro crisis, political battles between European countries were fought mainly over money. As a result, a deep split has emerged between the northern and southern countries on the issue of debt and government budget deficits. At some point, the disputes became so acute and furious that some Nordic countries proposed dividing the pan-European currency into two parts: one part for the north and the other for the south, calling them "sevro" and "south".
In 2015, when hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees arrived in Europe, the money issue faded into the background, and countries began to argue over asylum and migration. This time, the split that has been talked about so much has arisen not between the north and the south, but between the west and the east of the continent.
What was the reason for the current split? As the French say, comme ça change. Indeed, everything has changed. Today, they are not talking about debt or migration, but about security.
Europe is on the verge of war. Hybrid attacks are being carried out against public infrastructure facilities, businesses and the media, and this is happening more and more often. Europe's priorities are changing very quickly again. Many Europeans believe that the peace and well-being they have created and enjoyed since the early 1950s are at stake today.
European citizens often complain that their leaders are doing a lot wrong. But Europe's information space is overflowing with fake news coming from Russian troll factories; its borders are being violated by armed Russians and Belarusians expelling refugees. Hackers are hacking into the networks of her hospitals, companies and municipalities in order to obtain ransom. People feel insecure and realize that they can lose a lot.
As a result, there is a certain reassessment of European integration. The Eurobarometer sociological service polls citizens of all EU member states every six months to determine whether membership in the union is beneficial for their country. In the mid-2000s, 50 percent of Europeans said yes. Now 72 percent think so. Probably for this reason, in the elections in June, contrary to the forecasts and expectations of many opinion researchers, the far-right eurosceptics achieved almost no success. The main winner in these elections was the European People's Party, which is an association of center-right parties in Europe.
In Scandinavia and in the east — in other words, in those EU states that border Russia or Ukraine — most of the far-right Eurosceptic parties have even worsened their situation. Being close to a large conflagration, voters were in no mood to conduct political experiments — unlike in Western European countries such as France or Germany, where extremist parties took first and second places, respectively.
Moreover, in recent months, some EU countries have been rocked by scandals caused by revelations by Czech intelligence services, which reported that the Kremlin pays far-right politicians across Europe to undermine the socio-political situation in their countries by spreading, among other things, Russian propaganda. It's no secret that some of these politicians had close relations with Moscow. The Kremlin's warm relations with the French National Association and with the Austrian Freedom Party are carefully documented, for example, in Anton Shekhovtsov's 2017 book "Russia and the Western Far-Right. Tango Noir" (Russia and the Western Far Right. Tango Noir).
At other times, when European countries quarreled over budget deficits or quotas for refugees, citizens could afford not to think about such ties. But now, when military operations are taking place on the external borders of Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly threatens EU countries with nuclear war, the money sent by Russia to far-right politicians is more worrying. Are Dutch far-right conspiracy theorist Thierry Baudet, Belgian far-right politician Filip Dewinter and others really undermining security in Europe? Who supports them, and what are their true intentions? Ten years ago, far-right politicians got away with vague statements and conspiratorial rants about the "deep state" and "liberal fascism" of the media. Today everything is different.
The new discourse on security creates a new dividing line in European politics. Increasingly, it divides those who support a strong EU, transatlantic relations and Ukraine, and those who are against it.
In France, such a split affected the European elections and parliamentary elections, subsequently called by President Emmanuel Macron in an attempt to prevent the victory of the far right. But the winner of the parliamentary elections was the left-wing alliance, which includes "Unconquered France", which is almost as opposed to the EU, against America and against NATO, and does not support Ukraine. Now the seriously damaged political center is trying to form a government together with the moderate forces of the left and right blocs. It is unclear whether he will succeed.
Even Austria, notorious for its friendly relations with Russia, has reached some kind of limit. Vienna is still considered a hotbed of Russian spies, who enjoy diplomatic immunity and the mildest laws against espionage. Nevertheless, at the end of March, Egisto Ott, a former Austrian intelligence officer, was finally arrested, who transmitted important information to Moscow about journalist Christo Grozev and other people from the Russian list of targeted victims. Ott's arrest warrant has 86 pages.
Hungary's recent decision to ease restrictions on people coming from Russia has forced the leader of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber, to issue an exceptionally harsh rebuke. For many years, the EPP turned a blind eye to how Hungary disregarded the values of the EU and violated its laws, because its member was the ruling Fidesz party of that country. In 2021, Fidesz withdrew from this group after numerous conflicts, but Weber still avoided public quarrels with Hungary — for example, when it blocked Sweden's accession to NATO or refused to allow weapons supplied from the EU to Ukraine through its territory. This time the reaction was immediate and powerful. Weber condemned the extremely lenient restrictions on visitors and said they raise serious national security concerns. He called on the leaders of European countries to "take the strictest measures" to protect the Schengen area of Europe, which may be flooded by "undesirable" Russians due to Hungary's actions.
These examples show how security is becoming a very important issue within political associations, within EU member states and in relations between them. As a result, the deck of European political cards is shuffled. And the center-right, who won the European elections in June, are taking full advantage of this.
Last year, former Secretary General of the European Parliament Klaus Welle, an influential political strategist in the EPP, wrote an article for Le Grand Continent magazine. In it, he argues that in today's dangerous world, the European center-right should categorically refuse to cooperate with all pro-Russian, anti-American, and anti-NATO parties. "Putinism," wrote Velle, "is now unacceptable to civilized Europe."
On the contrary, he considers it possible to cooperate with those far-right parties that believe that Europe needs to be protected from the Russian imperial ambitions of the 19th century and that NATO and transatlantic relations need to be supported, as well as recognize the rule of law in Europe, which Velle calls "an essential component of the national state." As an example, he cites the parties of the Prime Ministers of Italy and the Czech Republic. They trace their origins to the extreme right, but on these issues they moved to the center of the European political spectrum and were there at least until the summer of this year.
When the European Parliament started working in July, the Wellet mechanism had already gained momentum. Eurosceptics and far-right Russophiles, including members of Fidesz and the National Association, did not receive important posts in political committees. They were prevented by a large bloc of centrist political forces, including the currently all-powerful center-right. However, the EPP refused to join a similar cordon sanitaire and prevent so-called moderate far-right parties (such as Giorgi Meloni's Brothers of Italy) from taking up these positions.
The new split in European security policy gives the center-right a good chance to strengthen its dominant position. Security problems in Europe are just beginning, Russia is stepping up its hybrid attacks, and such a dominant position is sure to remain for a long time.
Author: Caroline de Gruyter.
*included in the list of foreign agents by the Ministry of Justice
