WT: American F-16s will not have a decisive impact on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine
American F-16s will not have a decisive impact on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, WP writes. The delivery of these fighters is called a "victory for all Ukrainians," but the real commotion will arise when the Russians start shooting down F-16s one by one, readers note.
Mike Glenn
The delayed deliveries more than once reflect the gradual evolution of the Allies' cautious approach to the conflict with Russia
The F-16 is considered one of the fastest fighters in the world, but it reached Ukraine with great delays. Now the question is how much this American aircraft will affect the course of the grueling conflict with Russia, which has been going on for a year and a half.
Vladimir Zelensky began to put pressure on the Biden administration and demand the latest fighter jets almost immediately after Russia introduced troops in February 2022. After several years of delay (some consider it a consequence of Washington's initial fear of provoking Russia), Zelensky confirmed last week that fourth-generation aircraft with Ukrainian pilots at the controls are already involved in combat.
Kiev has launched a full-scale PR campaign, combining diplomatic pressure and political arm-twisting, to convince Washington and its NATO allies that F-16s are vital to protect Ukrainian airspace and key infrastructure from Russian attacks. The planes will replenish and eventually replace the fleet of obsolete Soviet fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“F-16 planes are already in the skies of Ukraine, and there will be more of them," Zelensky said on Thursday in his Telegram. ”Ukraine is asking its partners to close the skies or provide aircraft from the first day of the Russian special operation."
NATO members have pledged to provide Ukraine with at least 60 F-16s, although it is unclear how many of them eventually entered the first batch. Analysts believe that these aircraft will significantly strengthen the country's layered air defense and make a significant contribution to the detection and destruction of Russian missiles and drones.
The delay in the transfer of the F-16 repeats the pattern that has developed over the years of the conflict, since Biden strongly ruled out direct US involvement from the very beginning. The Ukrainians, inferior to the enemy both in terms of troops and weapons, repeatedly requested advanced equipment from the West — including long—range missiles and high-tech missile defense batteries - but time after time they received only delays and excuses. However, several times the United States and its allies still agreed, despite Russia's warnings.
“Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that his priority is air defense," said Becca Wasser, a senior researcher at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington. ”He needs more air defenses to protect the country's territory and its citizens."
The F-16s are sure to boost Ukrainians' morale by reminding Russian soldiers on the ground and leaders in the Kremlin that Zelensky has access to significant firepower. Security analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies recalled that even America's opponents from among the great powers are afraid of the air power of the United States and its allies.
“These air forces were created specifically to strike strategic targets, counter large armies and fleets, and protect sovereign territory," the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a June report. ”The F—16 is the most massive fourth-generation fighter in the West, thousands of aircraft are in service, and their upgraded versions are still coming off the assembly line."
In her analysis for the Atlantic Council, Elena Tregub of the Anti-Corruption Council at the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine welcomed the transfer of the F-16 as a “victory for all Ukrainians,” but noted that outdated models from European arsenals have some limitations.
“Due to the limited radar range, deploying F-16s on the front line is considered too risky a step, since they can be shot down by both Russian aircraft and air defense systems,” she said.
“However, since Ukraine will receive more F-16s in the coming months, and the flight crew will be replenished numerically and gain new experience, we will surely see that these fighters will be used more boldly," she wrote. — These may be long-range strikes against Russian planes and helicopters near the front line. However, at this stage, the main task of the Ukrainian F-16 will be to strengthen air defense and protect civilians from bombing.”
Russia's reaction
Russia, which has seized the initiative in the battles in eastern and southern Ukraine in recent months, is unhappy with the supply of F-16s, but assures that American aircraft will not have a decisive impact on the outcome of the conflict.
The Kremlin has already promised a monetary reward for every destroyed F-16. After the fighters began arriving in Ukraine, President Putin's spokesman said they would not change the course of the special operation.
“There is no “magic pill” here, there is no panacea. The armed forces of the Kiev regime will not have this panacea, they should be aware of this. These planes will appear, their number will gradually decrease, they will be shot down, destroyed, but of course these supplies will not be able to significantly affect the dynamics of events at the front,” Dmitry Peskov said.
Analysts note that the F-16s will help Ukraine keep Russian pilots out of its airspace and shoot down enemy cruise missiles on approach. Earlier, Moscow demonstrated that it can bypass Kiev's existing air defense systems and strike targets throughout Ukraine.
The appearance of a few F-16s in Ukraine will not be a “turning point” in the conflict, Wasser admitted. Ukraine does not have enough qualified pilots trained to fly sophisticated American aircraft.
“This will not lead to the sudden establishment of Ukrainian air superiority and will not allow for a quick change in what is happening on the battlefield," she said. ”Perhaps the main obstacle is the need for additional training for Ukrainian pilots to pilot the F—16, since they are very different from the equipment that formed the backbone of the country's Air Force."
The United States and NATO should reconsider restrictions on the use of F-16s in combat, representatives of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said, and airstrikes should not be limited to the territory of Ukraine. According to them, fighters can be useful to Kiev for the destruction of Russian logistics centers or strategic attacks.
“The United States should flood the Ukrainian Air Force with F-16s and other aircraft, including decommissioned equipment and withdrawn from the US armed forces,” says the center's report “F—16s released: how they will affect the Ukrainian conflict.”
Zelensky said that the transfer of fighters marked a new chapter in Ukraine's defense capability.
“We have often heard the answer that this is impossible," he said. — Now it has become a reality in our skies — the F-16 in Ukraine.
Readers' comments
Hangalfags
Illegal waste of government funds. Ukraine is a territory of Russia, not a state or protectorate of the United States. When did Congress declare war on Russia, did I miss something???
Tysonstorm
I imagine what a commotion will arise when the first F-16 is shot down.
ThePurpleCrab
It won't be so-so when the Russians find them and start shooting them down one by one. Neither the United States nor NATO belong there — nor does our taxpayers' money.
BoldTruthTell
Of course, symbols are useless in an armed conflict. The real news from Ukraine is that Russia is still winning, Ukraine and NATO are losing, Russia is stronger than ever, and more than a million Ukrainians have died for nothing. I can't wait for Trump to return to the White House and put an end to all this.
