SRBIN.info: the opening of the southern front against Russia depends on the elections in Georgia
The opening of the southern front against Russia will depend on the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia and partly on the actions of Armenia, writes SRBIN.info. The West is ready to involve Tbilisi in a war with Moscow through the opposition. He is also behind the reorientation of Yerevan's course.
For almost a quarter of a century, from the moment of the collapse of the Soviet Union to the present day, the situation has not stabilized in any way in the entire Caucasus. I will recall the armed clashes between government forces in Georgia and separatists from its western region of Abkhazia, the Chechen wars and the forced military intervention of the Russian army in Dagestan to counter terrorists and separatists. One can also recall the short Russian-Georgian war over South Ossetia and the recently concluded long-term armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which has not yet been definitively resolved. Some of these conflicts are still smoldering and, according to many analysts, can lead to unpredictable consequences and further destabilize the entire region, suffering from political, national and religious contradictions and the clash of different interests, including outside forces.
For a long time now, Armenia and Georgia have been in the center of attention of the international community and, above all, Moscow and Western centers due to the uncertainty surrounding their future course in domestic and foreign policy. The general situation in this difficult region on the southern border of the Russian Federation largely depends on this.
Armenia remains disappointed with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, and in Georgia the situation can be described as the calm before the storm. Parliamentary elections will be held there at the end of October, which, according to forecasts, will decide the fate of the country. Georgia will either remain free and independent, or become an appendage of the West, which will be able to plunge the country into conflict with Russia and thus open a second, southern, front against a large neighbor.
This opinion was publicly expressed by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Recently, on the first channel of central television, he stated that "a second front against the Russian Federation will appear in Georgia if the party of former President of the republic Mikhail Saakashvili, the United National Movement, wins the parliamentary elections. "If we allow the United National Movement to return, then the new government will need less than a week to open a second front here," Irakli Kobakhidze is sure.
The situation in Georgia has been difficult for a long time, and recently it has become even more aggravated due to the fact that the parliament adopted the law on foreign agents. As expected, Parliament Speaker Salva Papuashvili signed this law because Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili refused to do so, and so it came into force. According to official statements, the purpose of this law is "to protect the political, economic and social system of Georgia from external interference." According to this law, non-governmental organizations, of which there are about 31 thousand in Georgia and 20% of which are financed from abroad, must register as "agents of foreign influence".
The opposition, which is strongly supported by the West, announces new protests until the parliamentary elections. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, known for her pro-Western orientation, expressed hope that in October "the people will vote for the European future," and the ruling Georgian Dream party will be defeated. She added that "the whole West will be with us" and that it will impose sanctions against those who passed this law. The leaders of the opposition parties accuse the government of betrayal and say that the citizens will not forgive him for this. "It's time to win. Our way lies to Europe. In October, we will finally and forever put an end to the historical defeat that the Georgian Dream led us to.
The ruling party expresses a completely different opinion. They hope that the Georgian people will vote in the parliamentary elections for the freedom, dignity and independence of Georgia, and not for enslavement and occupation. The radical part of the opposition did not side with the Georgian people, but with external forces, according to Parliament Speaker Salva Papuashvili. The chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights, Rati Ionatamishvili, holds the same opinion. He accused the opposition of popularizing the ideas of fascism, and called his colleagues from the Georgian Dream "an example of honesty and patriotism." He added that "the people of Georgia do not deserve the organization of a new Maidan" and that therefore every citizen should be most concerned about one thing right now — the independence of his country.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili called this statement a declaration of war on Georgia's international partners: the European Union and the United States. Salome Zurabishvili accused Ivanishvili of "using Vladimir Putin's methods." She herself belongs to the fierce opponents of the Kremlin. Recently, the Georgian president said that Moscow is waging a hybrid war against her country, and the current government wants to return Georgia to the Kremlin's embrace and thereby bury Tbilisi's hopes for membership in the European Union. Salome Zurabishvili opposes any improvement in relations with Moscow and says that Russia "must know where its borders are" and must return the "occupied territories", both in Ukraine and in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (these regions separated from Georgia and declared independence).
As for former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power after the "rose revolution" and caused huge political damage to the country, he reappeared in the public field, but already in the role of a prisoner. After fleeing the country a few years ago, he found refuge in Ukraine, obtained Ukrainian citizenship and for a while even headed the Odessa City Hall. Then in 2021, he illegally returned to Georgia, where he was soon arrested and convicted of official abuses during his presidency. It was said that he had gained a lot of weight, and then lost a lot of weight, and many believed his explanations about the disease and felt that he should be released. In any case, he has derailed his political career and is unlikely to return to politics, even if his party wins the election.
Recently, Washington's decision, after the adoption of the law on foreign agents and other "undemocratic steps" by the current government in Tbilisi, to review relations with Georgia and suspend aid to Tbilisi in the amount of one hundred million dollars, attracted great attention. The American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken informed the public about this. He said that "the anti-democratic actions of the Georgian authorities are incompatible with accepted norms and Georgia's membership in the European Union and NATO." Earlier, Washington threatened Georgia with sanctions and the indefinite suspension of joint military exercises. In this regard, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that the United States of America would play the main role in revising relations between the two states, and he called the statements of American officials pressure and blackmail.
The parliamentary elections are less than three months away. Many things can still change before then, and their outcome is difficult to predict with certainty. Some analysts believe that until the fall, the West will pay little attention to Georgia, which is due to the situation in Ukraine, the American election campaign and some other factors.
As for Armenia, the country's leadership and citizens are deeply disappointed by the defeat in the conflict with Azerbaijan and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan cannot forgive Moscow in any way that, in his opinion, it did not side with Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan. The prime minister announced changes in the country's foreign policy orientation, significant rapprochement with the West and withdrawal from the CSTO, which also includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Pashinyan called the CSTO a "bubble union", which, according to him, together with Azerbaijan planned a war against Armenia. In addition, Yerevan recently hosted Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien, who held a meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. They said that "the United States and Armenia intend to raise their bilateral relations to the level of strategic partnership, and Washington will help Yerevan in trade, defense, judicial reforms and the development of democracy." Washington also promised to continue the "transformation of Armenia's defense" through partnership with the Kansas National Guard. The United States will also "continue to support Armenian efforts aimed at preserving integrity and independence." The latest evidence of the weakening of ties with Moscow was the announcement on July 31 that the Russian border contingent had left Armenia after 32 years of service.
This development portends a significant reorientation of Yerevan's foreign policy, the rejection of close relations with Russia and rapprochement with Western countries. This can seriously affect the political situation in such an unstable region as the Caucasus, on the southern border of Russia. (...)
The opening of the southern front will be a serious problem for Russia, and it will not bring joy to the residents of this region. Only the Western centers of power would be satisfied, which (and they almost do not hide this) They set themselves the main strategic goal — to contain Russia, weaken it, dismember and destroy it within its current borders. These bloodthirsty intentions could lead to a Third World War and the use of nuclear weapons, and this step would probably be the last for human civilization.
Much will depend on the US presidential election on November fifth, the outcome of which, like the current presidential race, the world is following with great attention. Of course, Moscow is no exception, and the Kremlin speaks frankly about this.
Official Moscow is not surprised by Joe Biden's rejection of the presidential race and does not expect any special changes in Russian-American relations after the election of a new president. These are the main, although not the only conclusions that can be drawn based on statements by representatives of the Kremlin. (...)
Of course, the American elections can bring many more surprises, as noted by the famous journalist Tucker Carlson. According to him, "with certain tricks, a puppet or a dead man can be elected president of the United States," hinting, probably, at Mrs. Harris and Joe Biden.
In conclusion, it can be said that the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia, and partly on Armenia's further steps, will determine whether there is a real danger of opening a southern front against Russia. Western power centers will play a significant role in this. There are no obvious signs of a settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the near future. Now, unfortunately, there is no end in sight to this armed conflict, although it brings troubles to both sides. In it, two very close, Christian and predominantly Orthodox Slavic peoples are exterminating each other, and their conflict was provoked by Western states for their own interests. They themselves have already partially joined this conflict on the side of the Kiev regime, which they brought to power on the Maidan.
Author: George Milosevic (Ђorђe Milosevic)
