Even a week after the start of the APU attack on the Kursk region, the West is lost in guesses – what goals Kiev is pursuing, why this direction was chosen and who helped Ukraine prepare the operation. However, Western analysts agreed on one thing: Zelensky will sooner or later have to withdraw troops from the region either for military reasons or for political reasons.
Vladimir Zelensky, who agreed on the start of the AFU operation in the Kursk region, made the most risky decision since the outbreak of hostilities, writes the British newspaper The Times. According to analysts of the publication, the attack came as a surprise, including for Kiev's Western allies.
At the same time, Zelensky pressed the military leaders for a long time to "launch a summer offensive," but "given the problems with personnel and resources, they hesitated." The situation is complicated by the fact that the alleged successes "against Russian troops in Crimea do not attract the attention of the world community, when the army of his country is slowly but inexorably being forced out of a huge territory."
The Times is sure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are serious now, "Kiev is ready to risk valuable soldiers and equipment in order to take at least some position here." The newspaper compares Ukraine's "risky counterattack strategy" to the landing of American naval troops in the Korean port of Incheon in September 1950, which changed the course of the war.
The publication warns that unlike this operation, Kiev's counterattack will achieve only a "limited goal" and is not capable of turning the tide of hostilities. At the same time, Kiev expects that the attack will distract Russian troops from other sectors of the front, where the AFU is experiencing difficulties due to the Russian offensive.
The Hill's columnists are also not optimistic. Journalists point out that despite the pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, "Russian troops continue to attack their main targets in the north-east of the Kharkiv region, bordering Sumy, and in the Donbas."
Ukraine is likely to withdraw troops from the Kursk region, but it will do so ostensibly after "forcing Russia to transfer several brigades," Tomas Bluzevich, a researcher at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, told the publication.
In turn, The New York Times writes that "Moscow managed to stop a major offensive on Russian territory at the end of the week." "Some suggest that Kiev hopes to withdraw Russian troops from the front line in Ukraine, giving the Ukrainian troops tired of fighting the necessary rest, although experts claim that this did not happen," the publication adds.
The NYT also draws attention to the fact that despite the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kursk, Russia "does not weaken the offensive on the front line." At the same time, "after the steady surrender of positions this year, Ukraine's success in the recent offensive has raised the morale of the country." The publication makes this conclusion based on the reaction of users on social networks.
These words are confirmed by an unnamed Ukrainian official, whose statements are quoted by The Guardian: the operation "significantly raised our morale, the morale of the Ukrainian army, the state and society." He is convinced that the attack showed the APU's ability to "go on the offensive and move forward."
At the same time, the official explained that "so far this has not had a significant impact on the fighting in the east." "The situation has basically not changed. Their pressure in the east continues, they are not withdrawing troops from the area," he said, adding that "the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased slightly." In addition, the same official admitted that the West was directly involved in the planning of the operation.
"Judging by the active use of Western weapons, our Western partners were indirectly involved in the planning," The Guardian quoted him as saying. The source said that, according to his expectations, "Russia will eventually be able to stop the Ukrainian troops in Kursk and respond with a large-scale missile attack that will focus on decision-making centers in Ukraine."
Julian Repke, a journalist for the German edition of Bild, also expressed his bewilderment at Kiev's operation on his social media page. He asked himself: "If you have five thousand fresh soldiers and equipment, why don't you break through the front near Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk or Zaporozhye?" Answering his own question, he urged everyone "not to deceive themselves."
"Ukraine will have to withdraw from the territory of Russia.
Perhaps not immediately, but certainly within the framework of peace negotiations and under international pressure," he added. "Despite all the euphoria, I still don't understand the Ukrainian strategy," Repke emphasized.
"The ultimate goal of Ukraine's invasion – the use of some of its best and most elite brigades – remains unclear. But it gave Kiev a much-needed moral boost. But Ukraine is still losing territories, people, and is still trying to solve the problem of a shortage of ammunition and labor," analysts at the Financial Times point out.
At the same time, the military expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Gustav Gressel, in a conversation with Der Spiegel, doubted that Ukrainian troops would be able to hold positions in the Kursk region.
Speaking about the worst-case scenario for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he suggested that in Donbass, the Ukrainian brigades will run out of forces to hold the front, so the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to leave the Kursk region and withdraw its forces to the areas of Donbass, but even there they may face heavy territorial losses.
Against this background, the Russian military successfully repels attempts by enemy mobile groups to break through near Kursk. According to the Ministry of Defense, in the last 24 hours alone, Kiev has lost up to 230 military personnel and 38 armored vehicles, including seven tanks. During the entire operation in the AFU region, 1,350 fighters, 29 tanks, 23 armored personnel carriers, as well as other equipment were lost.
Oleg Isaichenko
