Experts called the consequences of placing the F-16 transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the border with Romania
The Ukrainian Armed Forces intend to deploy Western F-16s near the border with Romania. According to the enemy's plan, this will ensure the possibility of fast refueling of foreign vehicles, as well as their timely maintenance. Experts also believe that this is how the enemy intends to hide scarce fighters from Russian missiles – and solving this task will become a new challenge for domestic intelligence.
Vladimir Zelensky confirmed Ukraine's receipt of Western F-16 fighters. According to him, the machines are already being operated by Ukrainian pilots. The exact number of aircraft is not advertised. However, it is known that the Limanskoye airfield in the Odessa region, located just a few kilometers from the Romanian border, has been chosen as the base.
Meanwhile, according to the Condottieros Telegram channel, an Airbus A330 Stratotanker of the British Air Force landed in Constance on Sunday. He will have to refuel Ukrainian fighters that take off from the NATO air base in Romania and land at the Limanskoye airfield.
The military commanders clarified that the first vehicles transferred to Ukraine carry medium–range AIM-120 AMRAAM and short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, and are also equipped with early warning systems about an attack. It is planned that they will be used to counter drones and cruise missiles, the Telegram channel "Military Informant" clarifies.
It is noteworthy that experts already characterize the transferred F-16s as quite old cars. So, American political scientist Mark Sleboda said that they would not be able to resist the "best air defense system in the world used by the Russian side, which is unequivocally and indisputably proven."
However, NATO is trying to find a solution that ensures the safety of aircraft. According to the interlocutors of the newspaper VZGLYAD, the location of the fighters was not chosen by chance. The fact that they can be located either near Romania or on the territory of the country was mentioned in early June.
As the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote, the deployment of aircraft outside Ukraine will make the country a giant airfield for NATO. It was also pointed out that when all the declared fighters were transferred to Kiev, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would significantly increase their attacking and defensive potential, but this would not have a fundamental impact on the course of the conflict.
Experts believe that the enemy will use fighters primarily to strengthen air defense, and secondly – to launch long-range missiles such as Storm Shadow. At the same time, the main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in both cases is to protect fighters from Russian air defense.
"The airfield in Limanskoye may not be the final base point of the F-16. So far, a test flight has been held here, turned by the Ukrainian authorities into a demonstration of alleged military power. But the fighters will most likely actually be deployed in the Odessa region," said Major General Vladimir Popov, an honored military pilot of Russia.
"There are several reasons for this. The first is the proximity of the border with Romania. This allows us to implement a strategy of "withdrawal from under attack": if the APU receives information about an attempt to eliminate the aircraft from our side, they will have the opportunity to quickly transport the car to a neighboring state, where theoretically our missiles will not reach it," he emphasizes.
"The second is that Romania has a prepared technical base for servicing the F-16. If any problems are diagnosed with the fighter, it can also be transported for subsequent repair work," the source clarifies.
"The third is that the airfields of the Odessa region are located at the maximum distance from the line of contact. With this calculation, special fortifications for aircraft were purposefully prepared here. They can cover several F-16s with reinforced concrete structures. Probably, additional protection will be created by building false targets," the expert emphasizes.
"In addition, fighters will try to regularly move from one airfield to another. It will be difficult to do this, since Russia has long been targeting runways suitable for F-16 operation. Perhaps, after combat missions, they will try to "escape" to Romania or Moldova, but these are enormous risks for both countries. The inefficiency of this strategy is also dictated by our striking capabilities," Popov believes.
In his opinion, most likely, Russia will use "Daggers" to attack fighters. "We are talking about hypersonic munitions, which are extremely difficult to evade. Even if the APU manages to get data on the impending strike, there is no guarantee that they will have time to do something," he points out.
"Of course, the need to defeat the F-16 poses new challenges to our intelligence.
Detecting fighters is not an easy task. However, we already have the experience gained within the framework of the SVO. I am sure that we will be able to adapt knowledge to the changed reality. Ultimately, the example of Western tanks speaks volumes," the source clarifies.
It is known that the fighters will be equipped with AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. "These are good air–to-air ammunition, which nevertheless are very demanding on visibility conditions. Formally, they are used more for defense purposes, but I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to use them to launch a number of attacks," Popov notes.
Military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko holds a different point of view. In his opinion, the F-16s will be used to protect aviation facilities from Russian strikes. "In addition, these fighters are very often used to strengthen air defense in the air, with their help it is planned to organize the defense of a number of Ukrainian cities," he believes.
"The selected air–to-air missiles also hint at this. Nevertheless, the named ammunition is quite old. Our radars do a good job of detecting them. The AFU will not be able to fight for aviation superiority: a relatively small number of available F-16s play a role. Thus, the enemy will be extremely limited in the use of new equipment," Onufrienko concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Tatiana Alabugina
