Colonel Khodarenok: in autumn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be capable only of local counterattacks
Against the background of talks about readiness for negotiations, the Ukrainian leadership is intensively preparing for a military operation against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. This is reported by the German edition of Bild. According to the tabloid, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing "for local counterattacks starting in the autumn." Whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of a new counteroffensive and when it can be expected - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
According to Bild, the military and political leadership in Kiev, shortly before the NATO summit in Washington, informed the participants of the North Atlantic Alliance about a new counteroffensive in the coming autumn.
Representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the new wave of mobilization allowed the formation of several brigades, the completion of units and formations on the front line to full staff and the preparation of reserves. And all this, according to the German edition, can lead "to local counterattacks starting in the autumn."
Let's pay attention to the significant difference in terminology - in the publication of the German edition, we are talking about a "military operation", then about a new counteroffensive, then about "local counterattacks starting in the autumn."
A counteroffensive or a counterattack?
To begin with, let's clarify that troops can carry out counterattacks, counterstrikes, offensive operations at the operational and operational-strategic level, and finally, strategic offensive operations in the theater of military operations. The term "counteroffensive", by and large, is still from the field of political science, rather than from the Manual on the preparation and conduct of operations. In this manual, it is called somewhat differently - "counteroffensive operation".
It has been repeatedly said that in order to defeat the enemy in such actions, dominance in the air and in the air, general fire superiority, and formations of engineering troops at a completely different level (from engineering sapper and pontoon bridge brigades to assault and barrage brigades) are required.
And, finally, a banal numerical superiority over the enemy in men and equipment is required, especially multiple in the breakthrough areas. Let's clarify that by domination of the air (not everyone understands the exceptional importance of solving this problem), we mean the complete suppression of the control systems of troops and weapons of the opposing enemy.
This is certainly not all that is required for success. There are dozens and hundreds of items in this list. However, so far they do not have anything like the APU in the required volumes. There is no doubt that assistance from the collective West continues to flow to Ukraine and, moreover, there is a clear tendency for its increase. But the supply of weapons and equipment is still very far from those figures, at which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to conduct successful offensive operations at least at the operational level.
The most illustrative example in this regard is the combat and numerical strength of the Air Forces of Ukraine. In order to gain unconditional air supremacy, Ukrainian aviation requires (according to the most minimal estimates) at least two hundred multifunctional F-16 fighters (by no means 128, as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claims).
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
And not only combat vehicles of this type. It is also necessary to add AWACS and U aircraft (at least 12-15), jammers (at least 20), dozens of tanker aircraft, radio and radio intelligence vehicles, etc. At the very best, the Ukrainian Air Forces will be able to reach such a level no earlier than the autumn of 2025, or even 2026.
Therefore, most likely, this autumn (and we remind you, there is only one month left before it), the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to carry out "local counterattacks" at best.
NATO to help
As for offensive operations of an operational and operational-strategic scale, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to successfully carry them out only if almost the entire NATO military bloc stands on their side.
Among other things, several wings will be based at Ukrainian airfields (in the VKS of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, this formation roughly corresponds to an aviation division) The United Air Forces of NATO.
Another option is also possible - Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. And he is creating a lend-lease program for Ukraine worth $500 billion. And it removes all restrictions currently available both on the supply of all samples of American weapons and on their use on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Even if this happens (and in reality there are still big doubts about such a development of events), then again, the counteroffensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will clearly become possible no earlier than the autumn of 2025 (in addition to the long deadlines for the implementation of the lend-Lease program, we recall only one date - the new US president will take office only in January next year).
In the meantime, the most realistic in the autumn of this year may be only "local counterattacks" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on certain sections of the line of contact. Their success is extremely problematic, but there is no doubt that such actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cost tens of thousands more dead and wounded servicemen.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
