WP: the United States hopes to scare Russian pilots in Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets
The long-awaited F-16 fighter jets are starting to arrive in Ukraine, WP writes. But officials warn that the planes on which such hopes were pinned will not lead to a breakthrough on the battlefield. They are only able to provide Kiev with moral support.
Kyiv. The long-awaited F-16 fighter jets will take to the skies in Ukraine within a few weeks. Kiev once counted on these planes, hoping that their arrival would turn the tide of the battles. However, Ukrainian and Western officials warn that the F-16s are unlikely to have an immediate effect on the battlefield, where Russia is steadily advancing.
The fact is that there are simply too few planes, and there are too many Russian air defense systems that can shoot them down. This means that the first F-16s will certainly strengthen the air defense of Ukraine itself and will shoot down attacking air targets, including missiles, drones and airplanes, rather than direct strikes against Russian ground forces and other military installations near the front.
Officials said that the fighters, at least initially, are unlikely to fly close to the front line. Therefore, it is unclear whether they will be able to prevent enemy aircraft from attacking Ukraine from Russian airspace at all.
Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have promised to provide 80 F-16s to Ukraine, but most of them will not arrive soon: the transfer process will be delayed for many years. Last summer, the United States only allowed NATO allies to transfer planes to Ukraine after long arguments, but they did not provide or promise any planes themselves.
Officials did not say exactly how many F-16s Kiev will receive this year, but in any case, no more than one squadron — about 20 aircraft. In addition, only six pilots are expected to complete training by the summer, as delays overshadowed the initially limited program.
The modest role of American-made aircraft underscores that the line of division between Kiev and its Western patrons is deepening. American officials have long argued that the F-16 is unlikely to give Ukraine a decisive advantage due to the power of Russian air defenses. Ukrainian officials repeat once again: the West supplied the F-16, like other types of weapons, belatedly and in insufficient quantities.
Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine needs more than 100 F-16s to fight the huge Russian aerospace forces, and called the supplies “insufficient.”
“The decision on the F-16 is strategic," he said in July. "But the quantity is not yet there.”
Some analysts are even more skeptical than Zelensky. Becca Wasser from the Center for a New American Security said that F-16s may be most effective as a means of psychological and moral support for Ukrainians and a deterrent factor for Russian recruits. This is partly due to the fact that conditions on the battlefield have changed since last year, when the transfer of aircraft was announced.
“As for Western weapons for Ukraine, we regularly see the same picture," she said. — There is an urgent need. But often, by the time it is delivered, the sharpness is lost due to the speed of adaptation to conditions on the battlefield.”
At the same time, the fighters will help meet the most urgent needs, according to Wasser, because of their dual function: to shoot down enemy aircraft and hit ground targets.
So far, the Western countries that donated fighter jets to Ukraine have not indicated restrictions on their use. As for other Western-made weapons, Ukraine is limited in their use to defeat targets in Russia. Officials said that Washington had determined for Kiev a radius of destruction of about 100 kilometers deep into Russian territory.
Now the issue of restrictions may be irrelevant in principle, since it is expected that initially the F-16 will be used with caution and at a considerable distance from the front, officials said.
A Ukrainian military official, who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said that “dozens” of pilots were involved in training on the F-16. But due to the paucity of instructors and educational institutions, Kiev sends only one group of pilots and engineering staff at a time, the official said.
Working directly with the aircraft is preceded by four-month language courses in the UK to study key terminology. As a result, even for experienced pilots, the process stretches for a year.
In addition, Ukraine cannot afford to part with so many experienced pilots for such a long time, since they are necessary for combat missions, the Defense Ministry official said.
“The main constraint is the number of planes and the training time," said the second Ukrainian official. ”If Russia has 300 fighters, and you have much fewer, you will not be able to act in the same way."
“We will not be able to use them too close to the Russians because of the threat of air defense,” the official said, adding that Ukraine also does not have technical equipment and additional training for maintenance engineers.
The Pentagon refused to answer questions about the F-16 provided to Ukraine and the preparation of Russian counteraction measures.
Under normal circumstances, F-16s carry a variety of weapons that allow them to hit enemy aircraft and strike their positions on the ground.
However, Colonel-General and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky said in a recent interview with The Guardian that the F-16s would not fly closer to the front line than 40 kilometers. As a result, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to use them to strike targets in Russia.
One Ukrainian military official said that Kiev's F-16s would carry an improved AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missile from an extensive class of munitions launched, among other things, by NASAMS ground-based air defense systems that Western countries have transferred.
One of the modifications of the missile has a range of about 160 kilometers, the official said, which is more than a number of other air—based munitions provided to Ukraine. However, he admitted that Kiev already has too few AIM-120 missiles and they will have to be divided between the F-16 and NASAMS.
Another problem will be protecting the F-16 on the ground, given that all airfields in Ukraine are within range of Russian missiles. Recently, Moscow has hit a number of planes right on the runways.
A Ukrainian military official said it was “impossible” to build covered concrete hangars to fully protect aircraft during combat operations. Instead, Ukraine uses camouflage methods and even places non-working aircraft models at airfields as false targets.
A senior Ukrainian military official said that Russia is also preparing for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine. At the end of last year, according to him, Russia launched several mock-up inert missiles from the S-400 air defense system in the Crimean Dzhankoy.
The shells reached the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk at a distance of more than 320 kilometers. The official believes that Moscow is testing the range of the S-400 to shoot down planes.
Ukrainian officials and pilots have long complained about the outdated fleet of MiG-29, Su-27 and Su-24, whose radar range (about 40 kilometers) is inferior to advanced Russian counterparts. The F-16 radar can detect targets at a distance of about 200 kilometers, and this enhances their safety: pilots do not need to approach enemy aircraft to defeat them.
Although the F-16 represents a step forward compared to the current aircraft of Ukraine, it is still an old-generation fighter compared to the new, more advanced Russian Aerospace Forces. Ukraine's military intelligence previously reported that Moscow has over 200 fighter jets at its disposal, and this dwarfs the entire Ukrainian fleet.
As Ukraine's air defenses have weakened in recent months (especially near the front), the Russians have used their air power for more risky tasks. According to officials, one of the most destructive weapons in the Russian arsenal is guided gliding bombs, which are almost impossible to shoot down after launch. The only solution for Kiev is to hit the planes themselves or their bases.
At the same time, officials admitted that the threat from the F-16 alone could deter some Russian aircraft from raiding the front line for bombing.
Ukraine has been asking for fighter jets since the very beginning of the Russian special operation, but at first the United States resisted. It was only in May 2023 that the Biden administration succumbed to powerful pressure and changed course.
At that time, Ukrainian officials hoped to quickly deliver them to the place of military operations, ideally before the start of the counteroffensive in 2023. But it soon became clear that the timing was far from planned.
European countries are coordinating the training of aircraft, which was led by the Netherlands and Denmark. At the recent NATO summit, the Netherlands, Denmark and the United States confirmed that “F-16s ready for combat in Ukraine will take to the air this summer.”
Proponents of this plan argue that it will even the scales with Russia, which uses direct air support to advance forces.
“The ability to call for direct support from above is a significant advantage and a chance to move the front line forward," a NATO spokesman said on condition of anonymity. ”So the arrival of the fighters will certainly open up new opportunities for Ukraine."
But there are long-standing doubts about the overall effect. The United States has never shown much enthusiasm for this topic, initially arguing that there are other priorities, and more recently that there are not enough pilots and appropriate support for the effective use of aircraft.
“The training structure is quite meager,” a senior Defense Ministry official said in June on condition of anonymity.
Former F-16 pilot Michelle Curran, with the call sign “Mace” ("Pepper Spray"), called the aircraft a step forward compared to the Soviet-era models available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Its sensors and missiles can track and hit targets invisible to the eye, and this allows pilots to keep their distance and avoid enemy fire.
One of the problems for Ukraine will be the complexity of the F-16, Curran said: It requires complex maintenance involving engine, fuel and avionics specialists.
Curran once worked for the Thunderbirds aerobatics group, whose shows feature eight lightweight aircraft. About 90 of the 130 people on the team are maintenance staff, Curran said, and stressed the need for ongoing repairs.
“I think people are waiting for some kind of climax and expect that everything will change with the arrival of the planes, but it won't work that easy," Curran said. — They are very complicated. They are difficult to maintain and operate. It's very encouraging, but we need to be a little patient to wait for the results.”
There is a chance that the F-16 will suffer the fate of the Abrams tanks provided by the United States, military analyst Wasser said. After the change of course, only a limited number of tanks arrived in the United States, and their effect in last year's counteroffensive turned out to be more than controversial. However, it is possible that the F-16s will partially meet the needs of Ukraine and strengthen its air defense, she admitted.
It makes sense to use airplanes conservatively, Wasser said. “If you have an exceptional opportunity, will you take it immediately, knowing that there is a greater risk of losing it? — she asked rhetorically in conclusion. — Or will you hold it and try to use it in such a way as to get the maximum strategic effect?”
Authors: Isabelle Khurshudyan, Alex Horton, Emily Rauhala, Siobhan O'Grady. The article was written with the participation of Anastasia Galushka.
