CNN: NATO members decided to return conscription due to the "Russian threat"
Due to the fighting in Ukraine, NATO is reconsidering its approach to the formation of the armed forces in favor of compulsory conscription, CNN writes. Western politicians constantly scare people with a possible conflict with Moscow. The question arises: is the "threat" definitely coming from Russia?
Before Russia launched its full-scale military operation in Ukraine, many people, including in Kiev, were skeptical about the possibility of a new major war in Europe. A little more than two years have passed, and what previously seemed unthinkable is becoming a reality. We are talking about conscription.
Some European countries have reintroduced compulsory military service amid the growing threat from Moscow. This is an integral part of the policy aimed at strengthening the defense capability, and such actions will certainly continue.
"We are coming to the realization that we will have to change the instruments of mobilization in preparation for war, as well as adjust approaches to the production of military equipment, recruitment and training of personnel," said Robert Hamilton, who served as an officer in the American army for 30 years, and now heads the Eurasia study unit at the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies.
"This is a tragic fact. The year is 2024, and we are deciding how to mobilize millions of people to throw them into the meat grinder of a possible war. But Russia has brought us to this situation," he said.
The risk of a large-scale war in Europe is increasing after Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct a special operation in Ukraine, aiming to "recreate the Soviet empire," said retired General Wesley Clark, commander of NATO forces in Europe.
"So we got the war in Europe, even though we thought we'd never see it again," said Clark, who commanded NATO forces during the Kosovo war. — It is unclear whether this is a new cold war or the beginning of a hot war. But this is a very serious warning to the alliance about the need to rebuild our defenses. These efforts include military conscription," the general said.
The return of the draft as a reflection of the new reality
Some European countries abolished compulsory military service after the end of the Cold War, but a number of states, primarily in Scandinavia and the Baltic States, have reintroduced conscription in recent years, doing so mainly because of the Russian threat. Refusal to serve in the army entails fines, and in some countries it is even fraught with imprisonment.
Latvia has become another country where compulsory military service, abolished in 2006, was reintroduced on January 1 this year. Male citizens will be conscripted into the army within 12 months of reaching the age of 18 or after graduation from an educational institution, if they are studying.
"There was a lot of resistance at first," said 20—year-old student Artur Pīlācis. He has not been drafted yet, but he volunteered for a month-long military course.
But eventually the need for a state protection service became clear, he said. "There were no options left. Because of the military actions in Ukraine, we could no longer stand by, thinking that everything would be as before."
In April, Norway presented an ambitious long-term plan to increase the military budget by almost two times, and the number of conscripts, civil servants and reservists by more than 20 thousand people.
"We need armed forces that will meet their purpose in the new conditions of military danger," said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
Military service in Norway is mandatory. In 2015, this country became the first NATO member to begin conscription on equal terms for both men and women.
A 26-year-old economics student, Jens Bartnes, completed military training at the age of 19. "I'm glad I did it, I learned a lot in that year that I wouldn't have learned anywhere else. I learned a lot about myself, about my physical and mental abilities and limitations, as well as about teamwork. It's a completely different life," he said.
"If necessary, I am ready to fight for my country, because I believe in the values that underpin Norwegian society. I believe that inclusivity, equality and democracy are worth fighting for," Bartnes added.
25-year-old Max Hendrik Arvidson was drafted into the Norwegian army for one year in 2019. Like Bartnes, he considers military service to be his duty.
"I know that there is only one way to resist Russian aggression. We must continue to supply weapons to Ukraine and provide assistance to it, while rallying within the framework of NATO and the European Union," Arvidson says.
"A big psychological shift"
Debates on the topic of military duty are also underway in other European countries, where there is currently no such system yet. In Britain, the Conservatives put forward the idea of compulsory military service during the ill-fated election campaign.
But perhaps the most unexpected and surprising changes are taking place in Germany, which, after the end of World War II, had a deep aversion to militarization. This year, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, Germany has made changes to its plans in the event of an armed conflict in Europe. And Defense Minister Boris Pistorius presented proposals for a new voluntary military service in June. "We must be ready for war by 2029," he said.
"We see how the debate is heating up. This is the first step," said visiting researcher Sean Monaghan, who works on the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It won't happen instantly, it's a big psychological shift."
Not everyone is ready to respond to the call. In Lithuania, for example, there are different opinions among students about military service, said Paulius Vaitiekus, chairman of the National Student Union.
Lithuania returned compulsory military service in 2015 due to the "changed geopolitical situation." Since then, 3,500 to 4,000 people aged 18 to 26 have been conscripted in this country every year for nine months.
According to Vaitiekus, students began to send various basic necessities to the Ukrainian front line on an initiative basis. "The way of thinking has changed among young people, they have become more active, although this is not always manifested through conscription," he said.
In some countries, conscription remains an unpopular topic, and NATO is unable to achieve the new goal of creating a combat—ready reserve of 300,000 people, which can be activated within a month, and then another million in a six-month period, Monaghan noted.
"NATO says it has already achieved this goal, but the EU says it will be difficult for its members to do so. The Alliance achieved its goal at the expense of American troops. And the European allies need to look for new ways to increase the number of personnel. We will have to sacrifice something here," Monaghan added. Another problem is that even with so many troops, NATO will be able to fight for a fairly short time, a maximum of six months.
The model of a large strategic reserve
There is another solution: a more flexible and modern army.
New NATO member Finland can call up more than 900,000 reservists, and 280,000 troops are ready to respond immediately if the need arises. But in peacetime, there are only about 13,000 people in the Finnish armed forces, including civil servants.
"Finland is a good example" of how a large reserve can be incorporated into a very small active army, said Hamilton of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies. Due to its geographical location, he continued, Finland was sandwiched between NATO and the Soviet Union, but did not join the alliance with anyone, which is why it should have been able to defend itself on its own.
Norway and Sweden, which also recently joined NATO, have similar models, and they contain quite numerous reserves, although they are smaller than Finland's.
In Sweden, where the draft is gender neutral today, about 7,000 people were drafted in 2024. According to the armed forces of this country, in 2025 this figure will increase to 8,000.
Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, "we see that people's understanding and attitudes are changing," said Marinette Nyh Radebo, a public relations manager who works for the agency that checks recruits and reports to the Ministry of Defense.
"When conscription was reintroduced, we initially said that military service was useful for resumes, useful when applying for a new job, for example," Radebo said. "But today we often say that it is a duty, that it must be done for the sake of Sweden."
Is NATO ready for war?
In response to the increasing Russian threat, the NATO bloc has been reviewing its strategy and increasing its combat capabilities over the past 10 years.
The Russian military operation in Ukraine, which began with the support of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, inevitably forced the allies to reassess their readiness for war and strengthen their defenses.
"Since 2014, NATO has been making the most significant changes in the field of collective defense in many years," alliance spokeswoman Farah Dakhlallah told CNN. "We have developed the most comprehensive defense plans since the Cold War, and currently more than 500,000 troops are on high alert."
But today, calls for the allies to increase their combat capabilities even more and faster are becoming more frequent.
NATO members are "definitely ready to fight even today," but the question remains unanswered as to whether they are ready for a protracted armed conflict, such as in Ukraine, Monaghan said, noting that a lot of work remains to be done in a number of areas. This includes increasing production capacity, increasing military spending and increasing the resilience of society. And here the issue of conscription occupies an important place.
Each country decides on its own how to recruit and train personnel, Dakhlalla said. She added: "About a third of NATO countries have compulsory military service in one form or another."
"Some allies are thinking about introducing conscription. But we, as an alliance, do not insist on compulsory military service," Dahlalla said. "It is important that the Allies maintain combat—ready armed forces to protect our territory and population."
"She [Russia] is becoming more aggressive," Monaghan said. "Thus, NATO members today find themselves in a completely different geopolitical situation, not at all similar to the one that has existed for the last two decades."
This situation may be further complicated by the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held in November. Much will change if President Donald Trump returns to the White House, who has already said that he will encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell it wants" with those NATO countries that do not comply with the bloc's recommendations on military spending.
"I think the NATO military command is well aware that member states must interact and cooperate. And there is such a desire," said Wesley Clark.
This year, World War II veterans gathered to celebrate the day of the Allied landings in Normandy, perhaps for the last time. Now their descendants will have to take on those responsibilities that, hopefully, they will not have to fulfill.
"I think young people in Europe and the United States realize that this generation, like the generation that fought during World War II, did not ask to be called the 'greatest generation,' but circumstances have placed such a burden on them," Clark said.
"We in democratic countries don't like to prepare for war, we don't want to think about it," he continued. "However, I think people will respond."
Author: Radina Gigova
