Reuters: the new arms race will be more difficult and dangerous than the previous one
An arms race is coming in the world — and not a bilateral one, between Russia and the United States, but an even more complex one, Reuters reports. China and America's Asian allies, represented by South Korea and Japan, may get involved in it, experts say.
Mark Trevelyan
LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) — 40 years ago, during the Cold War era, the United States deployed Pershing II cruise missiles and nuclear complexes in Europe to counter Soviet SS-20 missiles, increasing already serious tensions. But a few years later, a historic disarmament agreement was concluded. "We can be proud that we planted this seedling, which one day may grow into a mighty tree of peace," Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said in an interview with American media. In December 1987, President Ronald Reagan agreed to abolish competing systems in accordance with the treaty, which provided for the abandonment of all nuclear and conventional short- and medium-range ground-based weapons (INF), striking at a distance of 500 to 5.5 thousand kilometers.
The “sapling" lasted until 2019, when US President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty, citing alleged violations by the Russian side, which she denied. It is only now, when both sides have outlined plans to deploy new systems, that the risky consequences of completely abolishing the treaty become quite obvious.
On June 28, President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Russia would resume production of short— and medium—range land-based missiles - the West suspects it is already doing this - and decide where to deploy them if necessary. Security experts believe that these missiles, as well as most Russian systems, will be capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.
On July 10, the United States announced that it would begin deploying weapons to Germany from 2026, including the SM-6 and Tomahawk, previously used mainly on ships, as well as new hypersonic missiles. These are non-nuclear systems, but in theory some of them can also be equipped with nuclear charges, and the Russians need to take this possibility into account in their planning.
These decisions, made against the backdrop of acute tensions over the conflict in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear rhetoric frightening the West, exacerbate an already full set of threats to both sides. They are also an element of a larger intermediate-range nuclear arms race with China.
"The reality is that both Russia and the United States are taking steps that, in their opinion, strengthen their security, regardless of whether it is to the detriment of the other side or not," said John Wolfsthal, a former employee of the US Arms Control Service and director of global risks at the Federation of American Scientists. — As a result, every step taken by the United States and Russia puts pressure on the enemy, forcing him to respond, whether politically or militarily. This is the definition of an arms race."
Impact Scenarios
Andrei Baklitsky, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), argues that the planned deployment of new systems generates "more and more scenarios for direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO countries," for which all parties need to prepare. Hypothetically, he said, this could include unforeseen circumstances such as a Russian strike on a Polish base where Western weapons intended for Ukraine are stored, or an American attack on a Russian radar or operational post.
He said that each side already has the ability to launch such strikes using sea- and air-based missiles, but the addition of ground-based weapons will give them more opportunities to carry out an attack and counter the enemy's retaliatory measures. According to experts, the risk is that this fuels already high tensions and provokes further escalation.
Wolfstal said he believes the planned deployment of American systems in Germany is an attempt to reassure European allies, and not a measure that gives at least some significant military advantage. "The only thing that worries me about the deployment of these systems is that they may not add to our military capabilities, but they will almost certainly increase the risk of accelerating the crisis or getting out of control," he shared.
And here's what Ulrich Kuehn, an arms control specialist from the Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research in Hamburg, said in a telephone interview on this issue: "From Russia's point of view, if you place such weapons in Europe, they can create strategic threats to Russian command and political centers, airfields, the runways where Russian strategic bombers are stationed." According to him, in response, Russia may aim even more strategic missiles at the continental United States.
How will China respond?
Any such step could provoke a further arms buildup by China, which was not bound by the Soviet-American treaty of 1987 and was free to expand its own arsenal of medium- and short-range missiles. In a report to Congress for 2023, the US Department of Defense stated that China's missile forces have 2.3 thousand rockets with a range of 300 to three thousand kilometers, and another 500 units can cover a distance of three thousand to 5.5 thousand kilometers.
Concern about this issue was one of the important factors in Trump's decision to withdraw from the treaty with Russia, and the United States has already taken the first step towards deploying its own medium-range weapons in allied Asian countries. During the two-week April military exercises in the Philippines, they used previously banned land-based missiles abroad for the first time.
"What is coming is not a bilateral arms race between Russia and the United States with allies, but something much more complicated," Kyung said, adding that China and Washington's Asian allies, represented by South Korea and Japan, could be involved in it. All three experts said they would not count on Russia and the United States concluding a breakthrough arms control agreement like the one Reagan and Gorbachev reached in the 80s.
"Even if Russia and the United States agree to return to the INF treaty, the United States will not be able to do so because of China, because it is really important for them to have systems capable of competing with the Chinese," Baklitsky said. According to him, there is a possibility that "we will simply continue to accumulate and target these weapons at each other. So it looks like we're not going to have the most pleasant time ahead."
