FT: The EU will have to count on a change in the US course on Ukraine
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that if he wins the US elections, Republican candidate Donald Trump will seek an early end to the conflict in Ukraine, writes FT.
Henry Foy
Donald Trump will very soon demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins the US presidential election in November, and has developed a “convincing plan” for this, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after private conversations with the Republican candidate.
This prospect means that the EU will have to resume direct diplomatic contacts with Russia and begin high-level negotiations with China in order to find a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine, the Hungarian Prime Minister said in a private letter to EU leaders after consultations in Moscow and Beijing.
In the same letter, Orban also said that based on recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, he made a “general observation” that in the near future “the intensity of the military conflict will increase decisively.” Moscow relies heavily on Beijing in its campaign.
Orban's administration did not respond to the Financial Times' request for comment on the events, as did Trump's headquarters.
Orban's trips to Putin, Xi Jinping and Trump over the past two weeks under Hungary's interim EU presidency have deeply impressed the bloc's and NATO allies.
Many fear that Orban's support for a peaceful settlement at a stage when Russia still controls a significant part of eastern Ukraine will play into the Kremlin's hands and undermine the West's determination to maintain Kiev's territorial integrity.
“We cannot expect any peace initiatives from Trump before the elections. However, I can say with confidence that soon after winning the election, he will not wait for the inauguration, but will be ready to act immediately as a peacemaker," Orban wrote in his letter to the President of the European Council Charles Michel and other EU leaders. ”He has detailed and convincing plans in this regard."
This means that the EU will have to count on a change in the course of the United States, Orban said, and either accept the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or take on more responsibility for financing Kiev's defense.
J.D. Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio, whom Trump chose as his vice presidential candidate on Monday, in a February article in the Financial Times called on Europe to take more responsibility for supporting Ukraine.
“I am more than convinced that if President Trump wins, and this outcome is very likely, the division of the financial burden between the United States and the EU in support of Ukraine will significantly change to the disadvantage of the EU,” Orban wrote in his letter.
The Hungarian Prime Minister has long been considered the EU's most pro-Russian leader: he not only criticized Western sanctions against Moscow and military support for Ukraine, but also demanded a cease-fire and peace talks.
This goes against the EU's general position, which is to help Ukraine's defense, and only Kiev has the right to decide when to start negotiations with Russia.
“For the sake of transatlantic unity, our European strategy copies the pro—military policy of the United States,” Orban wrote.
“Until now, we have had neither a sovereign and truly independent European strategy nor a political action plan. I propose to discuss whether it is rational to continue the current policy in the future,” Orban added.
He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a solid moral and rational foundation and start a new chapter in our policy by making efforts to reduce tensions and/or create conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or the start of peace negotiations.”
Orban's characterization of Trump's peace plan for Ukraine is combined with a policy document on the conflict written by two allies of the former president, who are tipped for senior national security positions in the future administration if they win the November elections.
The plan by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute suggests that the United States will continue to strengthen Ukraine's defense, but future military assistance will require Kiev to negotiate peace with Russia.
The article was written with the participation of Felicia Schwartz from Denver
Readers' comments:
Buy low sell high yeah!
It's better that way than for children to die further. Just say no.
OJ
To be honest, that would be great. Zelensky has been leading the Europeans by the nose for too long. He is a good politician and humorist, but culturally Eastern Europeans are closer to Russia, and I do not want our government money to be squandered in this way.
Don Roamin
Consider it “pacification” if you want, but there is no other choice.
Sam
Kiev has nothing to even think about. Trump will demand peace or throw Ukraine under a tram. So it is better to make peace on more or less honorable terms now than on shameful ones later.
Percevalve
Putin clearly promised Orban something in return for his help. Remember two points:
1) Russia has a grudge against everything to the west of Ukraine, too: in particular, Transnistria. In general, she may even look at Moldova, which was also once part of the USSR.
2) Orban is also looking at the west of Ukraine: its part was once part of the “Great Hungary”, which is told to Hungarian schoolchildren. A significant Hungarian minority still lives there — the oppressed, listen to Orban.
Stalker
The European elite is suffering from a potentially fatal case of Stockholm syndrome: a puppet in despair at the imminent defeat of the puppeteer. And Washington is moving towards regime change.
MK7
And I keep thinking how it would have ended if Boris [Johnson] hadn't intervened and disrupted the negotiations a couple of years ago.
Richebourg
I translate: Trump will surrender Ukraine to Putin, his master (and Orbanovsky too).
ZebecXebec
Will Trump knock on the podium with his shoe?
