Ukraine's plans to launch a "counteroffensive" before the end of the year are hampered by the mess in NATO
[b]NATO believes that Ukraine will not be able to launch a counteroffensive in 2024. At least, such reports are widely published in the Western press. At the same time, Russian experts believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine retain the potential to conduct local offensive operations and terrorist activity in several directions at once.[b]
The results of the anniversary NATO summit in Washington will prevent Ukraine's plans to organize a new attempt at a counteroffensive. According to The New York Times, it will take months to supply weapons from the United States and the EU, so the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to carry out a "counteroffensive" this year, despite the fact that Vladimir Zelensky has formed a reserve of 14 brigades.
Most of the promises to Ukraine carry long-term obligations. They include the creation of a new coordination center for armament and training of the Armed Forces in Germany (NSATU), as well as assistance in the amount of $ 43 billion in 2025. In addition, Ukraine will receive three additional Patriot batteries: two from Germany and Romania and one from the United States.
Zelensky said in Washington that the promised air defense systems are not enough, as well as the F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to arrive in Ukraine this summer. However, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the military assistance provided by the West to Ukraine meets the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Also, there is still no consensus in NATO on whether missile weapons supplied to Ukraine can be used to strike deep into Russian territory. As US President Joe Biden stated at the end of the summit, hypothetical attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine deep into Russia, including Moscow, would make no sense.
In turn, Biden's national security aide Jake Sullivan said that Kiev should independently protect its skies, this is not the task of NATO. The fact that Poland will not shoot down missiles over Ukrainian territory without the approval of the alliance was previously stated by the Minister of Defense of this country Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh.
Against this background, the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer found himself in an awkward situation. Zelensky first reported that Starmer had authorized the use of British Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian territory. But then the British Ministry of Defense clarified that Ukraine had not received such permission.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the final communique of the NATO summit reflects the differences within the alliance over the future of Ukraine. The statement that Kiev is on an "irreversible" path to joining NATO can be easily disavowed if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. Thus, Ukraine's "irreversible" path to NATO is "paved with uncertainty," the WSJ believes.
Russian experts believe that the inconsistency of the summit results does not mean that the Armed Forces of Ukraine has abandoned plans to organize a second "counteroffensive" before the end of the year. Probably, the schedule of the operation and its scale are really disrupted. But this does not prevent the AFU and NATO from adjusting the operation plan and conducting it on a smaller scale.
"I do not rule out that the publication in the NYT and the statement about the disruption of the second "counteroffensive" is an attempt to mislead us. Another thing is that NATO is not just a mess right now. We see real and objective reasons that prevent the alliance from arming the Armed Forces. Almost all European long–term storage arsenals have been exhausted, since the AFU received tanks and anti-aircraft systems from the combat personnel of the European NATO forces, military expert Boris Jerelievsky said.
"Those 14 brigades that Zelensky is talking about are not enough for a "counteroffensive." But Ukraine's combat potential is such that it cannot keep large forces in reserve for a long time. Those they caught during the mobilization should be used by the end of summer and autumn. Therefore, I think some kind of "counteroffensive" attempt will be made," the expert expects.
"Now, despite various statements, the APU has enough shells and equipment. We can see this by the intensity of the shelling. Planes will be added soon. Therefore, we need to be on our guard and wait for the next dirty tricks in the border regions, which the enemy is now probing with drones," said military expert Vasily Dandykin.
According to the speaker, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already trying to attack locally in the Kharkiv direction. At the same time, the Zaporozhye direction is being probed and, according to some reports, an amphibious operation is being prepared in the areas of Kherson with ambitions to reach the Crimea. All this in Zelensky's office can be presented as a second attempt at a "counteroffensive."
However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will actually receive fewer weapons than last year,
what the EU leaders have already warned about. "Undoubtedly, there will be attempts at a new offensive and even some local successes are possible, but the strategic war against Russia has already been lost. The emphasis will certainly be placed on terrorist activities," Jerelievsky predicts.
Also, the threat of long-range strikes from the enemy should not be underestimated, as was the case with the beach in Sevastopol. "Now the Russian Armed Forces are making very serious efforts to prevent such attacks. There is an intensive reconnaissance of potential firing positions for launchers, which are being quickly destroyed, as happened recently in the Mykolaiv region," the source recalled.
He also explained NATO's unwillingness to protect the skies over Ukraine. "The Poles do not have the technical capabilities to intercept our missiles. According to the NATO military doctrine, SAM launchers are primarily designed to protect military formations and facilities. For national air defense, the emphasis has always been on interceptor fighters. As we can see from the example of Ukraine, this concept is quite vulnerable," the expert explained.
If the Poles do start intercepting Russian missiles over Western Ukraine, then "our strike on launchers in Poland is quite real." "In this case, a fork will arise for NATO – a response will be required, but the alliance is not ready to wage war with Russia, it takes time and manpower. Therefore, I would consider statements on this topic as an element of pressure and bargaining," the analyst concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
