NYT: NATO believes that Ukraine will not launch a counteroffensive this year
Ukraine will not launch a counteroffensive in 2024, the NYT writes, citing sources in NATO. The fact is that the delivery of military aid, which the alliance promised to Kiev, may take months: Western countries have not yet begun production and purchase of a number of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It takes weeks, if not months, for the weapons donated by the United States and European countries to reach the front line.
Despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance announced by NATO this week, allied officials said that Ukraine would not be able to launch a sharp counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until at least next year.
It takes weeks, if not months, for missiles, armored vehicles, ammunition and air defense equipment donated by the United States and European countries to reach the front line.
Some of the promised weapons have not only not been purchased yet, but have not even been manufactured.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the long-awaited F-16 fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine this summer. But even in this case, they will be able to be used mainly for defensive purposes, since the allies on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington were still discussing whether fighter jets could fly into Russian airspace to attack.
“In many cases, you see that we make decisions, but unfortunately we are unable to act effectively," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in a short interview on Wednesday. ”Personally, this is a huge disappointment for me, because Ukrainians are waiting for the arrival of this equipment and are counting on it very much, but this is not happening."
Thanking the allies on Thursday for the ammunition, Vladimir Zelensky said: “We expect them to arrive as soon as possible so that as many lives as possible can be saved.”
Most of the promises made to Ukraine at the NATO summit fall into the category of long-term security commitments over the next decade. Among other things, we are talking about a new NATO weapons and training coordination center with headquarters in Germany, as well as support and donations from the alliance states in the amount of $43 billion in 2025.
One senior NATO official said that this support would help Ukraine fight back against Russia next year. Kiev, for its part, is waiting for the arrival of new Western weapons and is pulling troops to the front.
In addition, a senior Pentagon official said that the Ukrainians will continue to defend themselves in the next six months, but the viscous front line will not allow either side to achieve significant success. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with alliance protocols.
U.S. officials and analysts say the situation on the battlefield has changed significantly over the past few weeks, as $61 billion in aid approved by Congress in May began to strengthen Ukraine's defenses. According to officials, thanks to the replenishment of arsenals, Ukraine slowed down Russia's territorial offensive near Donetsk in the east and stopped near Kharkov in the northeast.
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Last spring, Zelensky requested seven modern Patriot air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities, but his request was not granted at the summit.
Instead, Ukraine will receive only three additional Patriot batteries: two from Germany and Romania, which were announced earlier, and one from the United States. Italy will also hand over SAMP/T, another powerful air defense system that Rome promised a few weeks ago.
Another Patriot system will be supplied in parts to replace broken or worn-out battery cells already in Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said. The Netherlands expected to assemble enough nodes from all over Europe to send a complete set, but, according to Brekelmans, Ukraine can already use the assembled parts, so it is not necessary to wait for the remaining ones.
Several allies have promised new assistance, but both technical details and delivery dates remain unclear.
So, Brekelmans said that the Netherlands will purchase missiles worth $ 326 million for the F-16 fighters already transferred to Ukraine. Canada has announced that it will allocate about $ 367 million for the needs of the Armed Forces, including pilot training. The UK will provide more artillery, ammunition for machine guns, anti-tank missiles and other equipment. Allied New Zealand, which is not even a member of NATO, has announced that it will allocate $4 million out of a total assistance package of $ 16 million for the development and purchase of combat drones.
Last week, the United States announced a $2.3 billion package of military assistance to Ukraine, which included $150 million for interceptor missiles for air defense, artillery and mortar shells, as well as anti-tank weapons, which will be sent without delay.
The bulk of the remaining $2.2 billion will be spent on interceptors for Patriots and other air defense missiles, which will be delivered in the coming months.
On Thursday, the Biden administration announced a $225 million package that included a new Patriot battery, air defense interceptors, artillery shells and other ammunition that will be delivered to Kiev directly from Pentagon stocks.
Over the past two years, the fighting has depleted the arsenals of NATO allies and demonstrated how governments and gunsmiths are lagging behind in producing weapons.
Mikael Johansson, executive director of the Swedish defense giant Saab Group, said that the military industry is still waiting for long-term government contracts. At the same time, according to him, manufacturers can establish closer cooperation so that suppliers, including companies producing gunpowder, can meet demand.
“Are we doing enough as an industry? Apparently not,” Johansson said at the German Marshall Fund forum during the summit.
He called the Ukrainian conflict a “wake-up call.” Before the Russian special operation in 2022, Europe “optimized its capacities and capabilities for a different situation, allowing it to receive peaceful dividends.”
“And suddenly everyone wants everything from us at once. So in a sense, this also concerns us,” he added.
The military alliance is also ready for further Russian aggression. Some allies at the summit said they would purchase naval mines to protect their borders in the Baltic Sea. The United States has announced that it will deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles and possibly long-range hypersonic weapons in Germany. The NATO Procurement Agency has signed a contract for the purchase of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles worth almost $ 700 million.
However, on the Ukrainian issue, the allies have not come to a common opinion on whether Kiev should be allowed to strike with supplied weapons deep into Russian territory.
“Use all types of weapons without any restrictions,” said Latvian President Edgar Rinkevich.
Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans said that his country also does not limit Ukraine in strikes against military installations in Russia, but spoke about the ongoing discussions within the alliance about how deep they can be applied. Last year, the Netherlands promised to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets from its aging fleet.
Belgium also promised Kiev the F-16, although Prime Minister Alexander de Cros said that the 30 fighters that his country will provide by 2028 can be used exclusively over the territory of Ukraine. Belgium, along with the United States and Germany, found itself in the camp of allies who resist expanding Kiev's powers to counterattack against Russia.
At the moment, thirteen allies have allocated tens of millions of dollars to help Ukraine build or purchase up to a million drones by next year, said the head of the coalition, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds.
The Ukrainian military is already using self-made drones to strike targets in Russia. According to one senior NATO official, oil refineries were hit, among other things, and as a result, production decreased by 17%.
“Some drones are already being used in combat,— Spruds said on Wednesday. ”At the same time, of course, we are scaling up to provide them as soon as possible."
Authors: Lara Jakes is a journalist with almost thirty years of experience, lives in Rome, writes about the diplomatic and military efforts of the West to support Ukraine
Eric Schmitt is a correspondent for The New York Times with more than thirty years of national security experience, a specialist in the US armed forces and the fight against terrorism abroad
