Why Ukrainian pilots of American planes will be forced to avoid air battles
NATO countries plan to accelerate the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. On Thursday, July 11, the Dutch Defense Minister called this an important task, and earlier US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken promised that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would receive aircraft this summer — Denmark and the Netherlands are already in the process of transferring. What will the Russian Aerospace Forces be able to oppose to American aircraft and their weapons? A comparison of the combat capabilities of the F-16 and the Russian Su-35S, Su-30SM and Su-30SM2 is in the Izvestia material.
Modifications of the F-16
The first F-16s to be received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be from the Danish and Dutch Air Forces — 20 aircraft are planned to be delivered from Denmark and 24 aircraft from the Netherlands. Kiev is likely to receive these vehicles during the second half of 2024. These will be modifications of the F-16AM/BM, that is, not the most modern models, but past modernization measures for equipment and weapons systems.
Further, in 2024-2025, aircraft from Norway and Belgium are planned to be delivered. The latter now has more than 50 F-16s, which are likely to be gradually withdrawn from service, and some of them are planned to be transferred to the Armed Forces. Norway has already decommissioned its more than 70 F-16s, and some of these aircraft are now also planned to be transferred to Ukraine. Thus, Ukraine is likely to receive about 100 F-16s in 2024-2025.
Norwegian F-16 fighter jet
Image source: Photo: TASS/EPA/Ole Berg-Rusten
The bulk of the aircraft modifications F-16AM and F-16BM were produced in the 1970s and 1980s and in the 1990s and 2000s underwent modernization under the MLU (Mid-Life Update) program. Most of the European F-16 fleet was assembled in European factories in the mid-1980s. The modernization of the MLU was mostly completed by 2003 and concerned mainly equipment that is used in combat missions. The main computer of the combat control system was updated, which made it possible to increase performance and expand combat capabilities. The Westinghouse AN/APG-66(V2) radar was upgraded, which now has the ability to escort up to ten targets simultaneously while firing at six targets simultaneously with new AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. All improved aircraft received a GPS satellite navigation system.
The main air combat weapon of all F-16s is the AIM—9L Sidewinder short-range missiles with infrared homing heads. AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles with an active radar homing head are used at medium and long range. By the way, the same ones are used in NASAMS air defense systems. For the air–to-ground mode, the F-16 uses a wide range of guided missiles and adjustable bombs: AGM-65G Maverick, GBU-12, GBU-24 and even GBU-31 JDAM. The aircraft itself is a light supersonic fighter of the fourth generation with a single engine and a six-barreled 20 mm Vulkan cannon.
AIM-120 AMRAAM Missile
Image source: Photo: Global Look Press/imageBROKER.com/Oliver Brandt
It is unlikely that the F-16s, which are supplied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will be able to use the latest American long-range missile NAIM-174B, the launch of which the US Navy aviation demonstrated the other day. The new air–to-air munition was created on the basis of the anti-aircraft SM-6 (RIM-174) and has so far been used on carrier-based F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft during the recent RIMPAC naval exercises. The range can be more than 300 km, and missiles of this class have not been in service with American aviation for a long time.
Su-30SM and Su-30SM2
What will the Russian Aerospace Forces be able to oppose to the Ukrainian F-16? The Russian Su-30 multipurpose fighters in the Su-30SM and Su-30SM2 variants are noticeably superior in their characteristics to the upgraded F-16AM and F-16BM aircraft. The Su-30 aircraft are part of the aviation of the Russian Navy and are based, among other things, in the Crimea. The SM and CM2 models are equipped, respectively, with AL-31F and AL-41F1C engines with a controlled thrust vector and, in terms of their combat and maneuverability capabilities, are noticeably superior to the lightweight F-16. The Su-30SM2 aircraft made its first flight only in 2021 and, among other things, is equipped with a perfect radar and a set of weapons similar to the equipment of the Su-35S air supremacy aircraft.
Russian Su-30SM multirole fighter
Image source: Photo: IZVESTIA/Dmitry Korotaev
According to their capabilities, the Su-30SM and Su-30SM2 are multi–purpose aircraft for air–to-air and air-to-ground missions. They can carry a wide range of air combat weapons — from a 30 mm rapid-fire cannon to short-range R-73 and medium-range R-77 missiles, which is considered in many respects an analogue of the American AIM-120 AMRAAM. The Su-30SM2 modification can also use the latest long-range R-37M with a distance of up to 300 km, which was previously used only by the MiG-31BM and Su-35S interceptors. To defeat ground targets, the Su-30SM has a wide range of tactical guided missiles, adjustable bombs and bombs with a unified planning and correction module with a caliber of up to 500 kg.
The most maneuverable in the world
As for the Su-35S, of which there are more than 100 units in the Russian Aerospace Forces today, no F-16 can be compared with this aircraft in terms of combat capabilities. Now, according to its capabilities in air combat, it is one of the most advanced in the world. The aircraft fully possesses the super maneuverability of the 4++ generation — today it is most likely the most maneuverable aircraft in the world. In addition, it is equipped with a powerful Irbis radar N035 with a passive phased array antenna and a digital onboard control system. The Su-35S carries weapons on 12 suspension points and uses all modern Russian air combat missiles — R-73, R-77 — and R-37M ultra-long-range missiles. And, being a multi–purpose aircraft, it also carries air—to-ground attack weapons - guided missiles, bombs, bombs with UMPK.
The Su-35 multirole fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces
Image source: Photo: RIA Novosti
Thus, it turns out that at long range, our R-37M missiles can hit F-16s at a distance of up to 300 km against the AMRAAM missiles' 120 km radius of operation. And in close air combat, it will be extremely difficult for the American F-16 to fight with maneuverable and short-range Su aircraft with a large stock of short-range missiles. Almost unbelievable. Consequently, the F-16s are likely to avoid aerial combat and, apparently, will be used in the interests of air defense deep in Ukrainian territory and as launch platforms for Western air-launched cruise missiles Storm Shadow and the like. And even in this capacity, we will be able to strike them with ultra-long-range missiles. The only question is the timely detection of such targets. Apparently, this will be resolved further: one missile, one F-16.
Dmitry Kornev
