The main directions of the new "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are named
Vladimir Zelensky said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a better position than a few months ago, and the issue of a new offensive depends on the armament of the brigades. According to experts, Ukraine needs successes on the battlefield in order to improve its negotiating position, so an attempt at a new offensive seems very likely. At the same time, according to analysts, Russia is ready for such a development, and the new "counteroffensive" will end in the same failure as the previous one.
Zelensky rejected claims that Ukrainian troops were at a standstill on the battlefield. In an interview with Bloomberg, he noted that now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a better position in terms of manpower than a few months ago,"and "the issue of a new offensive is the issue of arming brigades."
"This is not a dead end, this is a problematic situation," he said. "A dead end means there is no way out. But the problem can be solved if there is a will and there are tools. We have the will, but the tools have not appeared yet," Zelensky explained, complaining about the slowness of the United States in supplying weapons and ammunition.
However, in the last two weeks, there have been more and more signs that Ukrainian troops continue to accumulate manpower, equipment, ammunition and fuel in order to organize a new attempt at a "counteroffensive" either in the areas of Slobozhanshchina (with an emphasis on Volchansk), or in the areas of the Azov Sea (with an emphasis on Orekhov), as the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote back at the end of June.
In addition, since the end of June, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been increasing the number of attacks on the Zaporizhia NPP, pursuing not only military goals, but also political ones. Against this background, the Russian Armed Forces increased the intensity of attacks on the enemy's military infrastructure and logistics, including the destruction of ammunition depots in Kharkov, production facilities in the Dnieper and aviation in the Poltava region.
According to Kiev political analyst Alexei Nechaev, despite Zelensky's recent talks about peace, in reality the Armed Forces of Ukraine are noticeably saving air defense assets, expecting supplies from Western aviation, tightening mobilization and, to the best of their abilities, preparing for another "counteroffensive", which in Ukrainian and foreign media is called "an attempt to improve Ukraine's negotiating positions."
"It is difficult to say what the timing of this attempt will be. But it can be assumed that the "counteroffensive" should precede not only the second "peace summit", but also the presidential elections in the United States. But whether the United States will give the go–ahead for a new escalation, time and the results of the July NATO summit in Washington will show," Nechaev believes.
As for the military-technical aspects of this training, experts point to several factors that will hinder the new offensive of the enemy.
"In order to carry out an offensive and seriously change the line of contact (LBS), we need the support of heavy armored vehicles, gaining air superiority, etc. Last year, the enemy had everything except air supremacy, and he paid hard for it – he lost about 160 thousand people without achieving any success," recalls Alexey Leonkov, editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine.
The question of whether the APU will be able to create a new shock fist remains open. However, Russia promptly reacts to any accumulation of enemy troops and "does not allow the AFU to rotate even in the tactical zone." "Our reconnaissance has already reached the Poltava region, which was confirmed by a missile strike on the airfield in Mirgorod. Therefore, the question is whether the APU will be able to secretly accumulate forces somewhere. But there will still be offensive attempts, in Ukraine they like to use company tactical groups with light armored vehicles," the speaker noted.
In addition, Russia is creating new lines of defense in all the recaptured areas, which also promises many difficulties to the enemy. "Fortification plays a key role. The APU will no longer be able to break through with a rush. The only space where you can freely use the technique is in the South Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson directions. But the Kherson direction has a natural barrier in the form of the Dnieper River. That is, the AFU may try to launch an offensive in the south, towards Ugledar and Orekhov. But the whole space is monitored there, it's in the palm of your hand," the expert noted.
"Zelensky continues to mobilize, so he says that there is enough manpower.
But for a new offensive, we also need equipment and ammunition, which the AFU does not have enough. On the other hand, Zelensky wants to stay in power. And if he does not launch an offensive before November, then the West will lose interest in him," adds Andrei Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio–Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, a retired colonel.
According to the expert, now the main task for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the Kharkiv direction, "where they simply must not allow failure," and "loud" attacks in other directions. "The frequent attacks on the Zaporizhia NPP are nuclear blackmail by European states demanding to give the Armed Forces more money and equipment, including aviation. But the APU will still not gain air superiority," Koshkin predicts.
The expert recalled that noticeable results were expected from last year's counteroffensive of Ukraine, including "entering the Crimea," as the then commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny wrote. "Today, no one believes in Zelensky's assurances that the "counteroffensive" will be successful," the source stressed.
According to Leonkov, "the enemy is always trying to use cunning tactics, increasing the intensity in a certain direction in order to carry out a general offensive on the other." "This was the case last year, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine spared no effort and money to storm Artemovsk, so that we would get the impression that it would be there that the main attack would take place," Leonkov recalled.
"The existing LBF in the south, which is called the "Surovikin line", is a layered defense. The APU could not break through it then and will not be able to now.
The probability of a breakthrough will exist only in those areas where such a line has not been built. But even near Volchansk and Liptsy, we also managed to build defensive lines. If the enemy goes there, he will face many restrictions on the use of equipment due to the terrain and other factors," Leonkov emphasizes.
"It is also important that the enemy does not have air defense systems that can fight our FAB bomb-carrying aircraft with UMPC (universal planning and correction module). Where are the Ukrainian air defense systems? We regularly destroy them, like the S-300 antenna recently," the expert believes.
However, Leonkov does not exclude that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may intentionally save their air defenses to support the planned offensive. "However, future deliveries of Patriot complexes will be limited only to the western regions of Ukraine. The United States will not send these air defense systems to the line of contact, where they will be destroyed," the source predicts.
Oleg Isaichenko
