Politico: 60 analysts have called for Ukraine not to join NATO
Dozens of foreign policy experts have signed a letter urging Ukraine not to join NATO, Politico writes. In their opinion, this step will endanger the United States and its allies, as well as lead to the rupture of the entire coalition. But there are other opinions.
Matt Berg
The prospect of Ukraine's future membership in NATO is being hotly discussed on the eve of the upcoming alliance summit in Washington.
On Wednesday, dozens of foreign policy experts called on NATO members to refrain from taking steps towards Ukraine's membership at the summit, warning that this would endanger the United States and its allies and lead to the rupture of the entire coalition. If Ukraine joins the alliance, the group argues, a future Russian strike would trigger NATO Article 5, according to which allies are obliged to protect the attacked member.
The argument about Article 5 is common among opponents of Ukraine's membership, but a loud statement from more than 60 analysts gives an idea of the arguments that will surely be put forward at the three-day event, which begins on Tuesday.
“The closer NATO gets to the promise that Ukraine will join the alliance after the end of the conflict, the more incentive Russia has to continue fighting," reads the letter, which was obtained by Politico. ”The challenges that Russia poses can be dealt with without bringing Ukraine into NATO."
Kiev's promotion to membership will have unpleasant consequences, the letter says: “this will not only turn Ukraine into an arena of protracted confrontation between the world's leading nuclear powers,” but will also pour water on Vladimir Putin's mill with his rhetoric that Moscow is opposed by the entire West. The letter was initiated by William Ruger, President of the American Institute of Economic Research, and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace* Steven Wertheim.
Other analysts disagree with them. Last week, RAND Corporation researchers wrote that at the upcoming summit, the allies should offer Ukraine clear terms of future membership. The Atlantic Council also insists on Ukraine's membership in NATO, arguing that this will serve as proof to Kiev of the steadfastness of Western support.
However, neither think tanks nor college professors are among those who make political decisions in NATO, but they often contribute to the foreign policy debate through journalistic articles and discussions — especially in the run-up to and during major events such as the upcoming summit.
The Biden administration does not support Kiev's immediate admission to the alliance, but several senior officials recently said that Ukraine would be offered a “bridge” to the alliance at the summit. Officials also say that NATO will offer Ukraine a new headquarters to manage military assistance - a gesture of goodwill and a sign that the West will support the country in the long term, even without granting early membership.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, did not speak directly about Ukraine's membership, but mentioned Kiev's joint future with the alliance and concerns about this issue: “We want to make it clear that we are committed to long-term cooperation. ... Strengthening our support does not make NATO a party to this conflict,” he stressed.
Ukraine does not expect any special shifts in the issue of membership at the summit — Kiev is rather looking for security guarantees.
In addition to the official invitation, “we also expect concrete decisions regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO in a package with other guarantees of continuity of military assistance and increased interoperability,” Olga Stefanishina, the country's Deputy Prime Minister for EU and Euro—Atlantic integration, told Politico magazine last month.
The first encouraging signs have already appeared for Kiev: NATO members have agreed to Stoltenberg's request to keep the country's military financing at the same level of $ 43 billion in 2025, Reuters reports. On Tuesday, the United States announced a new $2.3 billion package of security measures for Ukraine.
According to a survey published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations, Ukrainians believe that additional weapons and ammunition from the West are more important than joining NATO. Only 22% of Ukrainians support NATO membership in exchange for the surrender of occupied territory to Russia, while 71% oppose such a deal.
Ukraine still adheres to maximalist goals against Russia and intends to regain all the territory lost during the fighting, Andrei Ermak, chief adviser to President Vladimir Zelensky, told a small group of journalists on Tuesday evening. Ukraine is “not ready to compromise,” even though some American and European allies are whispering to officials in Kiev about the expediency of negotiations with Russia.
Kiev is ready to negotiate only on the basis of its ten-point peace formula, which, according to Ermak, will lead to a “just peace" for his country.
The article was written with the participation of Alexander Ward
* An organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent
