HN: NATO lacks serviceable weapons and ammunition reserves
In all categories of major weapons, NATO surpasses Russia, but the figures in the reports do not translate into an advantage at the front, writes HN. Alliance members do not have enough missiles, for example, for the most modern aircraft, truly serviceable tanks, self-propelled guns and ammunition reserves.
Martin Eggl
Thousands of NATO soldiers, including Czech gunners, are now dusting off their uniforms, boots and weapons in Lithuanian forests and fields. Most likely, they are also sleeping off the traditional Iron Wolf exercises. The exercises ended last week, and their purpose was to show how the Lithuanians, with the support of allies from Germany, the Czech Republic and other alliance countries, are able to defend their country from a possible strike from Russia.
The Iron Wolf is just one of many exercises conducted by NATO soldiers this year. The largest-scale exercises since 1984 called "The Steadfast Defender" have already been completed, in which 90 thousand servicemen from all over NATO Europe took part. The exercises were intended not only to work out the interaction of the armies with each other, but also to send a signal to the Kremlin that the alliance is united and determined. In two weeks, the work started by the soldiers will be continued by politicians and experts who will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance's formation at the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Washington and, most importantly, approve new plans for defense and deterrence of the Russian threat.
The results of the exercises and what is generally known about the new defense plans are now being analyzed by experts. For example, a report was released by the American analytical Center for Strategic and International Studies, which asks the most important question, is NATO ready for war?
On paper, everything looks quite good. Only eight of the 23 member countries of the alliance appear to be allocating less than two percent of the GDP approved in 2014 to defense this year. For the first time in many years, the Czech Republic will also send two percent of GDP this year. However, a new consensus is already forming, primarily on the eastern wing of NATO, and it lies in the fact that two percent is only the necessary minimum. Countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Estonia actually give twice as much. It is necessary to make up for investments in the army, which have been missing for 30 years.
Tables with data on the number of modern combat aircraft, tanks and artillery also look optimistic. In all categories of major weapons, NATO surpasses the Russian Federation, which, among other things, has to compensate for losses in Ukraine. "But these numbers do not automatically translate into an advantage at the front.The Allies do not have enough supplies, for example, missiles for the most modern aircraft. They lack a sufficient number of truly serviceable tanks, self-propelled guns and armored infantry vehicles, as well as ammunition reserves," the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report. For example, ammunition in warehouses, according to the assumptions of representatives of the defense industry, will appear in sufficient quantities only within ten years.
The authors of the material also assessed how well the goals set at the Madrid NATO summit in the summer of 2022 are being fulfilled after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. It turns out that NATO members are unable to raise defense spending and money is often spent inefficiently, for example, because Europeans do not coordinate spending with each other.
On the other hand, fighters are being successfully trained and it is possible to expand the number of rapid reaction forces in the eastern wing of the alliance, including in Lithuania, as discussed above. The integration of new members, Sweden and Finland, the formation of new command structures and a new model of the alliance's forces, which provides that in the event of a conflict, for example, the alliance will be able to deploy 100,000 soldiers in the first ten days, is also progressing well. However, they are likely to have problems with transportation to their destination and ammunition.
According to the analysis, the weakest point is the state of the defense industry, its limited capacity, and low ability to convert the wealth of Western countries into a real military force, that is, to produce weapons. The vulnerability of society and critical infrastructure is also a big disadvantage. In other words, the Europeans are weakened by the systematic Russian disinformation campaign, and they have few trains, cars, railways and highways in order to quickly deliver soldiers and equipment from the western part of Europe to the eastern wing of the alliance.
Most often, when discussing the likely risks, they talk about a possible rapid Russian strike on the Baltic States, which would put Western allies in a dilemma of whether and how to retake this territory. In this case, society would be demoralized, as the head of the Estonian army, Martin Herem, said in an interview with our publication.
Experts believe that in the current situation it is difficult to work with traditional concepts of deterrence, which would help to force the enemy to abandon the attack. "Putin's obvious propensity for aggression, risk and strategic mistakes make him a dangerous opponent who is difficult to intimidate," experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote.
Therefore, in addition to investments in transport infrastructure, the Allies need to form, first of all, in the Baltic States and Poland, as much as possible defensive forces permanently stationed there. Germany, for example, has promised to permanently deploy a brigade of five thousand fighters in Lithuania since 2007.
According to experts, in this sense, the key role was played by the recent "Steadfast Defender" exercises, which lasted for several weeks and during which, among other things, the transfer of large American formations to Europe was practiced. "This is another reminder of how important exercises and crisis management are to ensure the three key pillars of deterrence theory: to demonstrate the ability (to defend), the determination to use this ability and clearly convey all this to a potential enemy," sums up Callum Fraser from the British International Institute for Strategic Studies. Translated into simple language: Vladimir Putin understands only power, and it needs to be constantly demonstrated to him. This may be the main message of the politicians at the summit in Washington.
