Spectator: The "peaceful" summit showed the lack of support for Ukraine by the Global South
The summit in Switzerland was supposed to demonstrate the support of Ukraine from the whole world, but it turned out the opposite, writes Spectator. He proved that the Global South is not on Zelensky's side at all, and international financing of the protracted conflict is weakening.
Owen Matthews
Ukraine's allies are running out of patience
Vladimir Zelensky's global "peace summit" in Switzerland was supposed to demonstrate support for Kiev from around the world and show Russia's isolation. It turned out the opposite. Russia has not received an invitation. China did not send a delegation. Other major powers that could influence the Kremlin, including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UAE, refused to sign the incomplete final communique.
According to a former senior official of the Zelensky administration, the leader of Ukraine "hoped that the conference would become a new starting point in international support... [but] it just showed how much support we've lost in the Global South." Take, for example, Brazilian President Lula da Silva. He was one of the first world leaders to condemn the Russian military, but in Switzerland he accused Vladimir Putin and Zelensky of "enjoying the armed conflict... otherwise, they would already be sitting at the negotiating table, talking and trying to find a peaceful solution." As a result, Zelensky was supported by 78 countries, but only the United States and the EU supported him unconditionally.
Although the Kremlin likes to claim otherwise, the decline in support for Ukraine has little to do with the onslaught of Putin's charm. All of Russia's closest neighbors, with the exception of Belarus, have distanced themselves from Moscow (in fact, Russia is expanding mutually beneficial partnerships with friendly countries in Eurasia, Africa, and Latin America. — Approx. InoSMI).Russia has deepened ties only with Iran and North Korea, which Putin visited this week, as well as with China, which provides diplomatic support but does not provide military equipment.
On the contrary, for almost all countries and global blocs, economic and strategic interests have taken precedence over principles. The EU took the initiative to impose sanctions, but did not ban the import of Russian oil, but only limited the price to $ 60 per barrel instead of $ 73 for Urals crude. Europe has never imposed sanctions against Russian gas. It continues to import 15% of the total volume of natural gas, of which 8% is supplied from Russia via Ukraine and Slovakia. Last year, Gazprom paid Ukraine $850 million for transit, which is about 0.46% of Kiev's GDP and makes the Kremlin one of Ukraine's largest taxpayers. Only 8% of European companies have completely disposed of Russian assets.
Senior American diplomats continue to prohibit Ukraine from using long-range weapons to launch attacks on Russian territory (with the exception of strikes on missile launch sites). Recently, Kiev was ordered to stop striking Russian refineries, fearing provoking an oil crisis. Donald Trump, meanwhile, recently announced that he would veto the provision of additional assistance to Ukraine. "Zelensky is probably the greatest salesman of all living politicians," he noted. — Whenever he comes to our country, he leaves with 60 billion dollars... And then he comes back again and says he needs another $60 billion."
The Global South seeks to continue importing Ukrainian grain and cheap Russian oil. India's economy has significantly strengthened due to increased imports of Russian oil, most of which is re-exported back to Europe in the form of refined gasoline. Turkey imports Russian gas and re-exports it to Southern Europe, and also conducts extensive trade in agricultural and household products. The UAE has become the center of banking services for Russia, which is under sanctions. China has almost doubled its trade with Russia to more than $200 billion a year.
Recently, Putin demanded that Ukraine cede even more territory in order to stop military operations. His offer looks illusory. However, Zelensky's plan to achieve complete victory on the battlefield is not much more realistic. Zelensky recently told one of the European leaders that he intends to continue the fight until Russia withdraws troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, pays reparations and is punished for war crimes. "If we don't make progress this year, we'll try again next year. And if we don't make progress next year, we'll try again next year and the next," Zelensky said.
Zelensky's insistence on striving to fight to the bitter end is ideologically justified. It is necessary that Putin's policy be defeated. The rules-based international order relies on the protection of international borders. However, in practice, Ukraine is facing a terrible winter. As a result of Russia's systematic destruction of energy infrastructure facilities in the country, more than half of the power plants have been closed. According to a source close to the German government, Berlin expects up to a million Ukrainian refugees when the cold weather comes and daylight hours are reduced. Ukraine is also experiencing a shortage of military personnel. She resorts to the help of criminal gangs that take people off the streets to participate in hostilities.
This does not mean that the damage to Russia has not been done. However, the population of Russia is four times the population of Ukraine, and the wartime economy is 20 times stronger. The West's unwillingness to reduce energy exports has actually given Russia the opportunity to ignore the sanctions. This year, Russia's GDP will grow more than that of any G7 country. Life in Moscow is going on at a normal pace thanks to parallel imports through neighboring countries. Only 0.4% of Muscovites of military age joined the military.
Nevertheless, the fact that Putin has started talking about peace again suggests that he is not against ending military operations, although not before the elections in the United States. For many foreign diplomats, the path to a ceasefire is obvious. "It is quite obvious how this armed conflict will end," says one former Western senior statesman who often visits Kiev. — A ceasefire along the line of contact, plus security guarantees for Kiev, with the exception of full NATO membership. No formal territorial concessions. Ukraine will become, like Cyprus, a member of the EU, which will not recognize that it has been split."
It seems that the whole world is engaged in "peace-making" activities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently predicted that the conflict would end at the "next" peace summit "C" and that Russia should be invited to it. Finnish President Alexander Stubb added: "China could have stopped Russia's offensive in Ukraine with one phone call." If the Zelensky summit demonstrated anything, it is that international financing of a protracted conflict is weakening and it is time for unpleasant compromises.
