Former NATO Commander Stavridis: Russia and China are defeating the United States in Africa
The United States is losing influence in Africa, giving way to Russia and China, Stavridis, former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe, writes in an article for Bloomberg. The military offered America a strategic plan of action on the continent. Among his tips is to cooperate with France.
James Stavridis
Africa has 60% of the planet's arable land and 30% of its minerals, and its population is approaching 1.5 billion people. The region's role in global security is also growing. Unfortunately, the United States is not keeping up with the rapidly changing situation. The latest blow was that American troops had to leave Niger, with which the Pentagon had long cooperated in the field of security.
At the same time, Russia and China are strengthening their political and military influence on the continent. Russian paramilitary forces and mercenaries based on the model of the now defunct PMCs “Wagner” operates in Mali, the Congo, the Central African Republic and other states. Local autocratic leaders expect to squeeze economic benefits from Beijing's “One Belt, One Road” initiative, as well as purchase equipment with advanced artificial intelligence that has turned China into a police state of universal surveillance.
The US African Command, which is entrusted with military cooperation in the region, warns that China is active in all 54 countries of the continent. Commander General Mike Langley says Beijing is seeking to establish naval bases in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as in the Gulf of Aden. He has already built his first official overseas base in the Horn of Africa in Djibouti.
So, what are the basic principles of a sound strategic plan for this vast continent?
First, it is necessary to realize the enormous diversity of Africa. The linguistic, historical and cultural differences are huge. Compare Ethiopia's long-standing independence with the painful colonial history and apartheid in South Africa. Francophone Africa is significantly different from the handful of former Portuguese colonies. In addition, all these countries have a long pre-colonial historical experience that has shaped their national characters.
For example, during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, the United States remained inactive, as if paralyzed, and failed to respond adequately when Hutu militias slaughtered about 800,000 Tutsis. We underestimated the growing tensions between ethnic groups after the colonial rule of Belgium and were not ready to intervene to prevent a huge human tragedy.
Secondly, to focus efforts on several “core” countries in four geographical regions. These countries enjoy both regional and, in some cases, continental influence. Incentives include financing key infrastructure through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation in the form of competition with China's One Belt, One Road initiative; preferences in the sale of advanced military systems such as fourth-generation fighter jets; military training, especially for special forces and counterterrorism; and expanded intelligence sharing.
Recently designated a major non—NATO ally, Kenya is a natural foothold in East Africa. Its President, William Ruto, has just been invited on a state visit to Washington, partly as a sign of appreciation to his country for its willingness to take on the difficult mission of ensuring security in Haiti, which will greatly benefit the United States.
Nigeria, the continent's most populous country with vast natural resources and a vast Atlantic coastline, will become a key player in West Africa. Washington has good military ties, but Nigeria may need additional support in the fight against the terrorist group Boko Haram.
South Africa is another obvious choice, despite the unpleasant outcome of last month's elections. U.S. Ambassador Ruben Brigeti recently told me, “It is in America's interest that South Africa succeed as a democracy for the benefit of its own people.” South Africa is a continental leader and a vocal voice in the Global South. It is the only African country in the G20. Finally, there are more than 600 American companies operating there, whose combined income is 10% of South Africa's GDP.
Ethiopia, which ranks second on the continent in terms of population, is a natural partner in the north. After a long period of stability, the country has recently been hit by a civil war. The United States deserves praise as the main source of humanitarian aid, but we need to take a more active diplomatic role. Given the flow of refugees from Sudan and Ethiopia's desire to borrow seven billion dollars from the IMF and the World Bank, now is the time to meet halfway and provide economic support.
Thirdly, it is the improvement of relations with influential regional and global organizations. The most important of them is the African Union, headquartered in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. However, the position of the US ambassador has been empty for more than a year. The State Department should appoint a foreign service officer with extensive experience in Africa to gain the trust of the entire continent.
Fourth, Washington must coordinate its actions more closely with allies around the world. A good example is France, which has maintained strong ties with some of the former colonies. Although Paris also suffered from the expulsion of troops (especially from Niger and Mali), it retained strong business and military ties with Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Chad. Therefore, the creation of joint American-French missions for military training or economic development projects does not make sense.
Fifth, it is the provision of security support. This means military training and equipment through the African Command. This has already been done in stages, but universal solutions are not suitable here. So, a more subtle approach could be to send instructors not only from the army and Marines, but also from the US reserves and the National Guard, who will find it easier to find common ground with the smaller armies of the continent.
As for naval support, the large expeditionary support ship Herschel Woody was deployed in West African waters in February Williams” with heavy helicopters, huge cargo capacity and teams for special forces training. This is good, but such initiatives should be permanent, not temporary. The US Coast Guard has conducted anti-piracy and drug trafficking training in conjunction with the small coastal naval forces of West Africa, but these measures should also become permanent.
Finally, Washington must challenge Beijing's “One Belt, One Road" project. The success of the Chinese initiative is mixed at best. Although the initiative was formally supported by 40 out of 54 African countries, a number of construction projects turned out to be of inadequate quality, and many loans were canceled.
In the United States, there are institutions like the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which finances projects from a relatively modest budget of a billion dollars, often jointly with the private sector and the United States Agency for International Development. For example, the CFR is now helping to finance the construction of the Lobito Corridor, a rail and road project through sub-Saharan black Africa. Both the Development Finance Corporation and the Agency for International Development represent a financially sound way to interact with Africa, but both suffer from enormous shortages of funds.
The strategic importance of Africa cannot be overestimated: by 2050, a quarter of the world's population will live there. America's great-power competitors have achieved profound successes, and without a consistent strategy, the United States will continue to lose influence and geopolitical advantage.
James Stavridis is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former Supreme Commander of NATO and Dean Emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Vice Chairman, Global Affairs, Carlyle Group, Member of the Board of Directors of Fortinet, NFP, Ankura Consulting Group and Neuberger Berman
