Colonel Khodarenok: with the permission for the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russia, a new stage of its
Britain, France, Poland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Finland, the Netherlands, Canada, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have given the go-ahead to use their weapons on targets in Russia. According to The New York Times and Politico, Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz are also close to giving Kiev such permission. What consequences this decision may have for the Russian Federation, the military columnist of the Newspaper investigated.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
Previously, a number of countries, for example, Germany and the United States of America, maintained a ban on the use of their weapons on Russian territories until the very last moment. However, according to recent reports, Olaf Scholz is inclined to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons (German-Swedish Taurus KEPD 350/150 missiles) to attack Russia (or maybe he has already bent down, and the information published about this in the media is just a media preparation for such a decision by the German leader).
As for Joe Biden, he is getting closer to allowing Kiev to use American weapons deep into Russian territory. The White House considers the revision of the previously announced ban inevitable.
"President Biden is approaching what could be one of his most important decisions in the war in Ukraine - the lifting of the ban on American weapons strikes on Russian territory," The New York Times reported .
Again, it may well be that the US president is not "approaching" this decision, but has been "approaching" for a long time. So there is every reason to believe that in the near future, allowing Kiev to use Western weapons against targets on Russian territory will become a consolidated decision of the entire North Atlantic Alliance.
What kind of weapon are we talking about?
These include Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and MGM-140 ATACMS with a range of 300 km, Taurus KEPD 350/150 with a combat range of 500 km. Olaf Scholz will undoubtedly join the "giants" in the very near future. In addition, Sweden has allowed its weapons to be used against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. And in the arsenals of Stockholm, as you know, there are Taurus KEPD 350/150 missiles.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
At the same time, we should not forget about the UAVs of the actual Ukrainian production, the range of which already reaches 1800 km. Thus, in a 300-500 km wide strip adjacent to the western border of the Russian Federation, almost all objects of the Russian Armed Forces (as well as infrastructure facilities) are located in the affected area of Western-made cruise missiles equipped with the Ukrainian army. Again, it is possible that more long-range weapons of destruction will be transferred to the APU in the near future. In any case, we must prepare for this.
The combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be significantly strengthened in connection with the transfer of F-16 multifunctional fighters to the Air Forces of Ukraine. These aircraft are unlikely to be used for bomb-and-assault strikes on the front edge. Most likely, they will be used as cruise missile carriers and as a means of combating Russian aircraft equipped with bombs with guided planning and correction modules.
Image source: Ints Kalnins/Reuters
What will it lead to?
All this puts the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in a rather difficult position. The combat use of army and tactical aviation will be extremely difficult. Helicopter take-off and landing sites will either have to be moved beyond the 300-500 km band, or they will have to be dispersed, fuel reserves and weapons of destruction. The same applies to airfields and tactical aircraft.
Under the attacks of enemy cruise missiles, there may be points of higher levels of army management, communication centers, launching positions of anti-aircraft missile forces, warehouses with stocks of material assets, communications, administrative and unloading stations. In this case, there can be only one solution here - to move beyond the 300-500 km band, change positions.
In addition, cruise missile strikes can be carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine not only on purely military targets, but also on infrastructure facilities, including fuel and energy complex facilities, power plants and heating plants, overhead and cable power lines.
For almost the entire spring, the Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy have been attacking the Ukrainian energy sector. It is possible that the military-political leadership in Kiev and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after receiving the above-mentioned permits, will consider it necessary to make an appropriate "exchange" in strikes. Therefore, it is quite possible that the population of the border regions of Russia (especially residents of apartment buildings) will have to stock up on electric generators, fuel supplies for them, stoves and firewood in advance.
In connection with the permission of NATO member states to use their weapons against targets on Russian territory during a special military operation, without any exaggeration, a new stage is coming. The consequences of the decisions taken by the NATO member States are still not predictable at this stage.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok