Ivan Lebedev — about Budapest's plans to review relations with the alliance
Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Hungary is reassessing its role in NATO because it does not want to participate in the alliance's military mission in Ukraine. Speaking on May 24 on the Kossuth radio station program, he noted that Brussels is studying the question of "how NATO could participate in this war," and Hungary does not want to get involved in this dangerous adventure, which could lead to a direct clash with Russia.
In addition, the head of government recalled, NATO is by definition a defense alliance and should not participate in military operations outside its borders. "We adhere to the basic idea of NATO, and work is underway to ensure that we remain part of the alliance without taking part in actions outside its territory," Orban explained.
In this regard, he admitted that if Hungary receives official permission for this, then its participation in the NATO military structure may change. "Our lawyers and our military are working on this now. This issue must be resolved by Hungarian diplomacy," the prime minister said. According to him, Brussels is aware of this and has even come up with a new term for Hungary — "non-participant".
The desire for "non-participation" appeared in the Hungarian government a long time ago. It has repeatedly stated that it will not support NATO's military actions in Ukraine — neither by allocating financial resources for this, nor by sending weapons there. Hungary believes that "this is not its war" and wants to stay away. This position is dictated, firstly, by the desire not to put oneself in danger, and secondly, by the conviction that the Ukrainian conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield, it can only be settled at the negotiating table.
Callai's Double Dance
The reaction from Brussels to Orban's statement was swift and more than restrained, if not reassuring. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in an interview with the British Economist magazine, in fact, expressed confidence that a compromise would be found with Hungary and the unity of the alliance would not suffer.
"We make decisions in NATO together on the basis of consensus. We are all committed to the founding Washington Treaty, and we have demonstrated this for decades. We are able to take into account the positions of different countries. I am absolutely confident that we will find a way to ensure that we do not undermine the unity of the alliance and that the allies are committed to collective defense. We will be able to find pragmatic solutions," the Secretary General said.
Orban's statement did not seem to come as a big surprise to him. Experts started talking a couple of months ago that Hungary might have to make some decisions about its position in NATO, since it does not agree with the expansion of the alliance's role in the Ukrainian conflict. For the first time, I heard such assumptions, in particular, in early April from the head of the non-governmental organization Hungarian Peace Circle, Endre Szymo.
Now, commenting on Orban's statement, he noted that "this is a real political step taken to protect peace in Hungary" in connection with the dangerous policy pursued by the North Atlantic Alliance. "If NATO does not abandon its plan to start a war against Russia and it becomes obvious that in the event of its direct intervention Hungary will also be drawn into a military conflict, then we will have no choice but to suspend our membership in NATO," Shimo believes. In his opinion, the NATO mission in Ukraine is equivalent to a war with Russia, and this cannot be allowed.
The head of the Hungarian Peace Circle also added that "you cannot continuously dance the double Kallai dance and think that you can get away with it." This phrase, understandable to any Hungarian who is at least a little familiar with the history of his country, contains a direct allusion to the policy of Miklos Kallai, who served as prime minister in 1942-1944. Remaining formally an ally of Nazi Germany, he simultaneously initiated negotiations with the Anti-Hitler coalition, hoping thus to ensure the security of Hungary and avoid direct involvement in the war.
It ended very badly for Hungary and for Kallai himself: the country was occupied by the Nazis, and he himself ended up in a concentration camp, where he miraculously survived. For the current prime minister, the comparison with him does not look too flattering. However, this assessment is far from the most critical of those that have been heard from independent experts in recent years.
A high-stakes game
There has been talk that Hungary's actions undermine the unity of NATO for a long time. The Hungarian government is reminded not only of the refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine, but also of delays in making a decision on joining the alliance of Finland and Sweden (Budapest was the last of all to approve the Swedish application).
A year ago, the Carnegie Endowment (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia) asked a dozen experts on Central and Eastern Europe to answer the only question: "Can Hungary be considered a reliable NATO ally?" All without exception (some with minor reservations) said that it was impossible. The comments were mostly more than harsh.
In particular, the director of the Berlin Institute for Global Public Policy (Global Public Policy Institute) Thorsten Benner argued that "Orban is increasingly acting as a Trojan horse of Beijing and Moscow at the high-level negotiating table in the EU." In addition, he cited a very poisonous statement by former US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland: "Orban sleeps peacefully at night under a blanket from the fifth article of NATO, and during the day he runs his illiberal state with EU funds." As you know, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, signed on April 4, 1949 in Washington, provides for the collective defense of the alliance, considering an attack on one of its members as an attack on all.
"The question is what to do. So far, the remaining 26 EU member states have not decided to use their powers to deprive Hungary of the right to vote, and NATO does not have a mechanism that would allow doing anything like that. Thus, Orban will remain a cuckoo in the Western nest," said the director of foreign policy at the London Center for European Reform Ian Bond.
At the same time, as some experts have noted, European diplomats recognize that in 90% of cases Hungary fully fulfills its obligations to its NATO allies, and uses disagreement on certain issues simply to gain some advantages for itself. An entrance ticket to this club also gives her leverage over its members.
"Over the past 12 years, Hungary has faithfully met all NATO criteria," said Zsuzsanna Seleni, director of the Leadership Academy at the Central European University's Democracy Institute Leadership Academy in Vienna. In her opinion, Orban understands that "Hungary will lose stability and security without NATO and the EU." "He is playing political games with NATO to extract more benefits from this. If the critical moment comes, Orban will play by the rules. But until someone tells him no, he will continue his high—stakes game," the expert believes.
What de Gaulle didn't like
Hungary's intention to obtain a special status in NATO raises many questions. The main one is: what operations can Hungarian servicemen be exempted from participating in and how will they maintain interaction with the troops of other countries of the alliance in this case? Are we talking about offensive operations or any actions outside the territory of NATO countries?
According to the Washington Treaty (Article 6), the bloc's responsibility extends only to the North Atlantic zone (north of the tropic of Cancer), although in recent years the alliance has conducted its operations in other regions of the world, including Iraq and Afghanistan. Hungarian servicemen also participated in these missions, even if not in combat, but as military medics, military police or security units.
Currently, the Hungarian Air Force is patrolling the airspace of the Baltic States on a rotational basis, and a Hungarian officer heads the command of the international Forces for Kosovo, created in accordance with a UN Security Council resolution and under the control of NATO. Hungary — unlike some of its allies — has spent at least 2% of GDP on defense for the second year in a row.
There has already been a case in the history of the North Atlantic Alliance when one of the countries had a special status in it for a long time. In 1966, France, under President Charles de Gaulle, withdrew from the military structures of NATO, maintaining a presence only in the political institutions of the alliance. By the way, explaining this decision, de Gaulle spoke then about the danger of losing national sovereignty, as Orban is now talking about. France's return to the military structures of the bloc took place only in 2009 under President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Hungary is not talking about such radical steps, but in any case, the statement made by Orban on May 24 is a wake—up call for NATO. Apparently, Brussels is only generally aware of Budapest's intentions so far. A senior diplomat from one of the Western countries, who was contacted by Politico newspaper for comment, suggested waiting and seeing what Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto would say about this at a meeting with colleagues from NATO countries. It will be held on May 30-31 in Prague under the chairmanship of Stoltenberg.
