WP: Western gunsmiths turned out to be powerless in front of Russian electronic warfare
The accuracy of Western weapons in Ukraine is falling sharply due to Russian electronic warfare, WP writes. Their main feature is that they are always one step ahead. The allies of the Kiev regime do not have time to refine their products, and they have nowhere to hurry.
According to statements by senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential internal Ukrainian estimates obtained by the Washington Post, in Ukraine, many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions could not withstand Russian electronic jamming technology, prompting Kiev to stop using certain types of weapons supplied by the West after their performance indicators plummeted.
Russia's suppression of modern Western weapons guidance systems, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and a highly mobile artillery missile system that can launch some American-made missiles with a range of up to 130 kilometers, has undermined Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and forced Kiev officials to urgently seek help from the Pentagon to obtain updated versions of weapons.
Russia's ability to combat high-tech Western munitions has far-reaching implications for Ukraine and its Western supporters, potentially providing opportunities for active action to adversaries such as China and Iran. And this is the main reason that Russia has regained the initiative on the battlefield and is confidently moving forward.
For example, according to confidential Ukrainian estimates, the efficiency index of Excalibur projectiles developed in the United States has fallen sharply in a few months — to less than 10% of hits on targets. Because of this, the APU abandoned them last year.
Although other sources have already reported on Russia's electronic warfare capabilities, documents obtained by The Washington Post include previously unpublished details about the extent to which Russian interference has reduced the effectiveness of Western weapons.
"The Excalibur technology in the existing versions has lost its combat potential," the estimates say. At the same time, they add that the experience of military operations in Ukraine has refuted its reputation as a "one shot, one target" weapon, at least until the Pentagon and American manufacturers resolve this issue.
Six months ago, after the Ukrainians reported the problem, Washington simply stopped supplying Excalibur shells due to their high failure rate, Ukrainian officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. In other cases, for example, aerial bombs called JDAM, the manufacturer provided Ukrainians with slightly upgraded versions, and the APU continues to use them.
The Ukrainian military command prepared reports between autumn 2023 and April 2024 and shared them with the United States and other allies, hoping to find solutions and open direct contact with weapons manufacturers. In conversations, Ukrainian officials complained about an overly bureaucratic process, which, they said, only complicated the path to urgently needed adjustments to fix ineffective weapons.
These officials agreed to answer how realistic it is to draw attention to the needs of the Ukrainian military. Some Ukrainian and American officials interviewed for this article spoke to us on condition of anonymity.
The Pentagon assumed that some precision-guided munitions would become ineffective due to Russian electronic warfare systems, and therefore worked with Ukraine on appropriate tactics and methods to counter this phenomenon, a senior representative of the US Department of Defense said.
"Russia is constantly expanding the use of electronic warfare," the U.S. official said. "And we continue to develop and ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities necessary to work effectively in this area."
A spokesman for the US Department of Defense rejected claims that the bureaucracy had slowed down the necessary measures. According to him, the Pentagon and arms manufacturers sometimes offered solutions within a few hours or days, but did not give examples.
In a statement, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said that it regularly cooperates with the Pentagon, and also communicates directly with weapons manufacturers.
"We are working closely with the Pentagon on such issues. In case of technical problems, we promptly inform our partners so that they take the necessary measures to resolve them in a timely manner," the ministry said. — Our partners from the United States and other Western countries provide us with constant support for our requests. In particular, we regularly receive recommendations on improving the use of military equipment."
American-made guided munitions supplied to Ukraine were usually successful only at the beginning of their use, but often became less effective as the Russian army adapted to them. Now, some types of weapons that were once considered powerful military tools no longer give Ukrainians any advantages.
In a conventional war, the American armed forces may not face the same difficulties as Ukraine, since they have more advanced air forces and reliable electronic countermeasures, but Russia's capabilities nevertheless put strong pressure on Washington and its NATO allies, forcing them to continue innovation.
"I'm not saying it didn't bother anyone before, but now the Americans are starting to worry a lot," said one senior Ukrainian military official.
"As we share information with our partners, and our partners share it with us, the Russians definitely also share information with China," he added. "And even if they don't share it with China... China is closely following the events in Ukraine."
Misses the targets
The Russian military special operation in Ukraine has created a modern testing ground for Western weapons that have never been used against an enemy with Moscow's ability to block GPS navigation.
Innovation is a characteristic feature of almost every conflict, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where each side uses technology and new developments to outsmart the other and take advantage of its vulnerabilities. According to analysts and officials, the Russian military has been proficient in advanced electronic warfare techniques for many years, investing in systems that can suppress the signals and frequency of electronic components, such as GPS navigation, which helps guide some precision-guided munitions to targets.
According to a confidential assessment based on direct visual observations, at the beginning of last year, the Ukrainians achieved some success using 155-millimeter Excalibur shells, with more than 50% of them hitting their targets accurately. Over the next few months, this figure dropped below 10%, with Russian GPS interference estimated to be the culprit.
In this regard, even before the United States stopped supplying Excalibur shells, Ukrainian gunners mostly stopped using them, the estimates say, because these shells are more complex than standard howitzer shells, and they require time-consuming special calculations and programming. Now they are generally avoided in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian servicemen on the ground say.
The Ukrainian official said that Kiev had shared this information with Washington, but had not received a response. The Ukrainian Armed Forces faced a similar problem with guided 155-millimeter shells provided by other Western countries. Some systems use GPS-free guidance, and it is unclear why they have also become less effective. Representatives of the US Department of Defense declined to comment on Ukraine's statements.
The Excalibur precision artillery shell is typical of many types of American weapons: it is expensive and complex, but accurate. Ukraine has used such projectiles fired by American M777-type artillery systems to hit targets such as enemy artillery and armored vehicles at a distance of approximately 25 to 35 kilometers.
Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said Russia's use of electronic warfare to destroy enemy guided munitions was an important development on the battlefield last year. Many weapons are powerful when they are introduced, but they lose effectiveness over time, Lee said, which is part of a non-stop cat-and-mouse game between warring parties that are constantly adapting and innovating.
The involvement of defense companies is crucial to overcome Russia's modern defense measures such as electronic warfare, Lee noted.
"The problem with many Western defense companies," Li said, "compared to Russian manufacturers, is that they don't have the same sense of urgency."
A dense web of interference
The documents state that the network of Russian electronic warfare and air defense systems poses a serious threat to Ukrainian pilots, adding that some Russian "jammers" are also capable of blocking the navigation systems of combat aircraft. According to estimates, the Russian defense is so dense that "Ukrainian pilots do not have open windows where they would feel that they are not under the gun."
Despite some efforts to counter Russian electronic warfare, potential measures here appear limited until the West supplies Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Such modern aircraft will allow the Ukrainian Air Force to push Russian pilots back, allowing the use of various types of weapons with longer range and the ability to avoid some electronic warfare systems.
The JDAM bombs dropped from airplanes are another example of the declining effectiveness of Western weapons.
Their appearance in February 2023 came as a surprise to Russia. However, it is estimated that their success rates dropped sharply within a few weeks after their practical inability to resist electronic interference was revealed. During this period, the bombs deviated from targets at a distance of at least 20 meters to a kilometer.
Ukraine provided information about the problem of Russian electronic interference, and the United States and arms manufacturers supplied improved systems in May last year, the documents say. The new guidance systems turned out to be more stable, but in the summer, Russian troops again strengthened their counteraction measures. In July, the percentage of JDAM hits on targets fell to a minimum.
In the first year after the start of the Russian special military operation, HIMARS launchers were praised for their success in striking ammunition depots and command posts behind enemy lines.
But in the second year, "it was all over: the Russians deployed electronic warfare, suppressed Western satellite signals, and the HIMARS system became completely ineffective," said a second senior Ukrainian military official. "This inefficiency has led to the fact that a very expensive projectile has been used more and more often to hit low—priority targets."
The Ukrainian military documents did not evaluate the M30 and M31 guided munitions, which are fired from HIMARS launchers. But in January, Ukraine's military command prepared a policy document calling on Western supporters to provide an alternative: M26 cluster munitions, which can also be launched from multiple rocket launchers. These low-tech unguided missiles are resistant to interference, and cluster submunitions can still hit targets over a large area, even if the shot is inaccurate.
Kiev still considers its existing HIMARS missiles to be effective, but Russian interference often leads to them missing the target by 20 meters or more.
"When it is, for example, a pontoon bridge... then there is a deviation of 10 meters, and the projectile turns out to be just in the water," said one Ukrainian official.
Russian interference signals are sent up from the ground and form a cone-shaped EW area. Any guided munition or aircraft passing through it is subject to interference.
The battalion commander, who spoke to us on condition of anonymity, described flying a reconnaissance drone in fog conditions last year in Artemovsk to track a HIMARS strike on Russian positions. On his screen, this commander watched with great frustration the misses of literally every missile.
Countermeasures
One way to counter Russian electronic interference from the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to target drones at well—known Russian electronic warfare systems before using HIMARS. In some cases, this proves to be effective.
"There were no problems at the beginning," the first senior official added. "Everything was simple: the launch platform arrived. The button was pressed, and a precise blow was struck. It's much more complicated now."
The official added: "The Americans are equipping HIMARS with additional equipment to ensure good geolocation."
According to confidential documents, one American type of weapon used by aircraft, the GBU—39 small-diameter bomb, has proven its resistance to interference. According to estimates, almost 90% of the bombs dropped hit the target.
The documents say that the smaller surface area of this bomb makes it difficult for Russian systems to detect and intercept it. Ukraine first received these weapons (their supplies were not previously disclosed by the Pentagon) in November 2023.
The GBU-39 aerial bomb has also been adapted for ground use in HIMARS launchers, a development that Pentagon officials say will increase the range of rocket artillery. However, this modified weapon, known as small-diameter land-based bombs (GLSDB), proved ineffective compared to bombs dropped from aircraft, Ukrainian officials said. Now the Americans are working to adjust them before resuming their supplies.
William LaPlante, head of the Pentagon's military procurement department, said last month that "the adapted weapons did not work for a variety of reasons," including interference and other tactical and logistical problems. LaPlante did not specify which weapon he was referring to, but experts said he was describing the GLSDB.
"When you send something to people who are fighting for their lives," LaPlante said, "they will try it three times and then just throw the unusable aside."
According to the Ukrainian military, the Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles provided by the UK are less susceptible to Russian interference, since they work not only on GPS, but also on two other navigation systems, including an integrated map that corresponds to the terrain of the intended flight path. Nevertheless, Russian air defense systems have achieved some success in intercepting these cruise missiles.
The Ukrainians have achieved some success with the provided American long-range missiles of the ATACMS system, which have a range of up to 250 kilometers, but they can also be shot down by the Russian air defense system.
Ukrainian officials said they also expect the effectiveness of the weapons now on the battlefield to decrease over the course of the year.
"The Russians will learn how to deal with it," said a second Ukrainian official. "That's how the arms race works."
Authors of the article: Isabelle Khurshudyan, Alex Horton
