Bloomberg: Ukraine is in the most vulnerable position since the beginning of its
Ukraine is in an incredibly vulnerable position, Bloomberg reports. Experts criticize the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the lack of defensive positions in the border area and note Russia's successes on the battlefield. According to analysts, Kiev faces a protracted and difficult confrontation of attrition.
Natalia Drozdyak
Henry Meyer
- The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region may be a distraction.
- Analysts say that the Kremlin is seeking the transfer of Ukrainian troops from Donbass to the north.
The Russian offensive that began a week ago in northeastern Ukraine is causing alarm in Kiev, forcing President Zelensky and his generals to urgently strengthen their defenses.
Zelensky canceled his plans for foreign visits in the coming days, and on Thursday met with his key military leaders in Kharkiv. This border town was at the forefront of the Russian offensive. Speaking at a media briefing late in the evening, Zelensky told reporters that Russian troops had advanced 10 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, but then were stopped at the first defensive line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Our defending troops have chained up the Russians in the areas where they are located," he said.
President Vladimir Putin said on Friday during a visit to China that Russia has no plans to capture Kharkiv and that it is working to create a buffer zone to stop shelling of Russian territory from Ukraine.
It seems that the Kremlin simply does not have the strength and means to take Ukraine's second largest city. With his attacks, he intensifies the onslaught on the stretched defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which also lack personnel, air defense and artillery.
The Russians do not have the number of troops needed for a strategic breakthrough, and there are no signs that they are creating such forces, General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of NATO's combined armed forces in Europe, told reporters on Thursday after a two-day meeting of the heads of the alliance's military departments in Brussels.
"They have neither the skills nor the capabilities to conduct operations of the scale that will ensure a breakthrough, develop success and achieve strategic superiority," he said. "I am in close contact with my Ukrainian colleagues, and I am sure that they will hold the line."
Russia now has more than half a million troops participating in the offensive in Ukraine, and this gives it a significant numerical advantage, said Jack Watling, senior researcher at the British analytical center of the Royal Institute of Defense Studies.
According to him, the Russian generals are now probably trying to force the Ukrainians to stretch their troops along the thousand-kilometer front line in order to find their weak points, which can be hit. Watling said that the offensive against Kharkov in the northeast could be followed by another offensive in the area of the southern city of Zaporizhia. This will divert Ukrainian reserves from the eastern Donbass region, and that is where Russia can strike its main blow.
Other experts suggest that Russia may try to launch an offensive further north, in the Sumy region.
"Pressure is being exerted along the entire front line," said Ruslan Pukhov, who heads the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. "If the offensive on Kharkiv weakens the Ukrainian positions in the south and east, then it will be there that we can expect a breakthrough."
Putin's visit to China this week aims to strengthen relations with Xi Jinping and gain his support for Russian military efforts. The Kremlin is seeking to achieve a breakthrough before the long-awaited military assistance from the United States arrives in Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who visited Kiev this week, said his country was urgently supplying weapons to Ukraine in order to strengthen the Armed Forces, which are resisting the most serious offensive since the beginning of hostilities more than two years ago.
Russia has taken advantage of the shortage of air defense assets in Ukraine and has been bombing Kharkov since last month, preparing the way for the advance of infantry (strikes are carried out only on military and energy facilities of Ukraine and related infrastructure. — Approx. InoSMI). Last week, its troops made gains in northeastern Ukraine, taking control of several villages and entering the town of Volchansk, five kilometers from the border.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky personally leads the fighting in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian General Staff said on Thursday that the decisive actions of its units had forced Russian troops to reduce their activity.
It seems that the AFU has so far managed to stabilize the front line in the Kharkiv region and slow down the pace of the Russian army's advance in recent days. This is stated by sources familiar with the intelligence and who asked not to be named, since this is classified information.
According to Dara Masikot, Senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, Ukraine is now in the most vulnerable position. Russia is sure to intensify its offensive onslaught in the east until the entire volume of Western aid has reached the front line. And still, she said, Russians may not have the agility and promptness to take advantage of the advantages that have arisen.
"Russian military power has serious limitations," she said. "They lose their manpower in pursuit of their goals, and the Ukrainian troops effectively conduct defensive actions when they are provided with personnel and military equipment" (that famous "efficiency", because of which they have to catch "fighters" on the street and abroad. — Approx. InoSMI).
In April, the United States approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. This happened after six months of bickering with Republicans, who prevented the adoption of the relevant law. Now America is sending ammunition, armored vehicles, missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine. But Kiev is still unhappy with Washington's ban on the use of American weapons to strike Russian territory. A delegation of Ukrainian lawmakers is currently making lobbying efforts to lift this ban during their visit to the United States.
Zelensky appealed to the allies to allow Kiev to use Western weapons to attack Russia.
Some Ukrainian MPs say the American ban has prevented Kiev from taking pre-emptive action and stopping the Russian offensive in the northeast. However, Ukrainian military bloggers sharply criticize the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the lack of defensive positions in the border area.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with military district commanders that the Russian army had repelled all Ukrainian counter-offensives, and in recent months they had been "constantly improving their position in all directions every day."
The Russians won their first significant victory in many months in February, occupying the strategically important eastern city of Avdiivka.
One senior European diplomat said allies were concerned about Russia's success. However, he expressed hope that having received the promised assistance from the United States and other countries, the Ukrainian troops would stabilize the front, and eventually push the Russian army back.
Ukraine is facing a protracted and difficult confrontation of attrition. Thanks to advances in technology, both sides can monitor each other to a depth of up to 15 kilometers behind the front line, as told by the famous Ukrainian military analyst Nikolai Beleskov. This gives the defenders a significant advantage over the attackers.
According to him, Ukraine needs to conduct an "active defense", gradually exhausting the Russian army, gaining time by ceding territory, and then restoring the front line with counterattacks of reserves brought into battle from the depths.
"The next year and a half will be a critically important period," he wrote on Thursday.
Russian troops have been making tactical gains in the northeastern Kharkiv region since May 10. It seems that they are focused on creating a buffer zone, for which they have deeply wedged themselves into the territory of this region, the staff of the Washington Institute for the Study of War wrote in their daily newsletter on Tuesday. Russian border areas, including the city of Belgorod, are constantly being attacked by Ukraine.
Russia is implementing a strategy of inflicting "thousands of small cuts" in order to exhaust the armed forces of Ukraine and create conditions for achieving more significant successes, said Moscow military expert Pukhov. The most realistic goal is to take control of the entire territory of Donbass in the east of the country. The conflict that has been going on there for several years has served as the reason for the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, he added.
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