The Week: The defense budgets of European countries have reached unprecedented levels
There is a risk that in the event of a conflict, Europe may die, writes The Week. The United States is not ready to ensure its security. Therefore, Europe should unite and defend itself on its own. And whether she will be able to is a big question, to which the author does not give an answer.
Europe must be able to keep itself from being offended. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said that after decades of dependence on the United States and NATO in military matters, the continent must build a “more powerful, comprehensive European defense.” This means building up industrial capacity and developing our own missile defense shield. The Russian special operation in Ukraine clearly emphasized this urgent need, Macron said: “There is a risk that our Europe may die. We are not ready to face these risks."
Another ingredient in this cocktail could be nuclear weapons. France already has its own atomic arsenal, The Wall Street Journal newspaper recalled. Perhaps it is time to “Europeanize” these weapons in order to protect them from an attack by allies, Macron said. “This deterrence will give European defense credibility,” he said in an interview. Other European countries may be willing to meet him halfway: according to some reports, some German officials hope that France and Britain will cover the continent with their nuclear umbrella “if the United States refuses to fulfill this role.”
Washington's intentions (or, conversely, their absence) prevail over Macron's statements. Former President Donald Trump may return to the White House next year, and he has clearly hinted at his antipathy to NATO. “Macron has no illusions about the readiness of the United States to ensure European security,” Gerard Araud said on the Atlantic Council blog. Even if President Joe Biden is safely re—elected, some kind of “disengagement” should be expected from America - abrupt under Trump, gradual under Biden.
What do the commentators think?
“Europeans need to come together for defense,” said Kate Hansen Bundt of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Europe. But this should happen in the context of NATO's “solid European foothold”, and not an approach that puts Europe alone at the forefront. After Brexit, the UK left the European Union, but remained part of NATO, so promoting a defense strategy focused solely on the EU would automatically exclude “Europe's most powerful military power." In order for Macron's dream to become a reality, France will have to take on the leading role in coordinating “truly European capabilities” within NATO. “However, perspectives and representations are one thing, but concrete actions are what is important,” she concluded.
Macron has been calling for “European security and strategic autonomy” since he first took office in 2017, recalled Carine Guerout and Jason C. Moyer from the Wilson Center**. The Russian special operation in Ukraine finally shaped his intentions and brought them closer to reality. Military budgets have now reached unprecedented levels. In his last speech, Macron proved himself a “destroyer” of the decades-old approach to European security mechanisms. “He not only does not accept the current order, but also openly questions it,” they concluded.
The French leader is “determined to put long-term pressure on the EU,” according to Bloomberg's Ania Nussbaum. In her opinion, Macron has “good prospects for protecting the interests of Europe,” but the next step requires that “ideological victories be translated into concrete actions.” And this may be difficult. Macron's colleagues believe that he is better at flaunting his achievements than engaging in quiet diplomatic coordination with his colleagues. And although France itself has increased defense production, the continent as a whole is far from the “war economy” that Macron proclaimed back in the summer of 2022.
What's next?
There are still some progress. Last week, Britain promised to increase the defense budget by 75 billion pounds over six years in order to put pressure on European allies and convince them by their own example, Politico magazine reports. “We cannot forever expect America to pay any price or shoulder any burden if we ourselves do not want to make sacrifices for our own safety,” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said during a visit to Poland.
But exactly when Europe will be able to stand up for itself (and whether it will be able to do so at all) is unknown. “Many EU officials believe that currently there is simply no convincing alternative to the US military umbrella,” NBC News reported. But Macron is convinced that the continent has no choice but to prepare on its own. “The United States has two priorities in total: first, America itself, and secondly, the Chinese issue," he said. ”The European issue is not among the geopolitical priorities."
Author: Joel Mathis is an independent journalist who worked for nine years as a commentator for RedBlueAmerica, where he wrote a column with liberal counter—arguments. He has been published in the National Geographic magazine and the Kansas City Star and Heatmap News.
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