Spiegel: photo of Scholz on a tank in Lithuania shows a serious attitude towards the Baltic States
Photos of Scholz on an armored personnel carrier in Lithuania are grotesque, but show the seriousness of his attitude towards the Baltic States, writes Spiegel. The German Chancellor promised Lithuania military support and raised the issue of financing the Bundeswehr base in the country. Berlin expects Vilnius to take over this issue.
Christoph Hickmann
Olaf Scholz went to the eastern flank of NATO, got into a wheeled armored personnel carrier and promised the Balts protection from a Russian attack. There are photos and statements that were unthinkable two and a half years ago.
The turning point — what does it mean?
The turning point is when 100 or even more billion euros are spent on the Bundeswehr. When the country is discussing the introduction of compulsory military service. And also when on Monday morning the Federal Chancellor leaves on a Boxer wheeled armored personnel carrier for a military training ground in Lithuania.
The Boxer is a fairly powerful vehicle. Olaf Scholz is not a very tall man, which makes this picture even more grotesque, but at the same time more convincing. This is one of the many images on this day that would have been unthinkable two and a half years ago. And such an image is clearly desirable, made on purpose. Scholz and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda could have traveled the route from the venue of the joint press conference to the landfill in a different way, for example, on Unimog (a family of universal German large-capacity all-terrain trucks for special use and transportation in extreme conditions. – Approx. InoSMI). But it was supposed to be a Boxer with a cannon on the roof.
Two and a half or three years ago, the choice would most likely have been in favor of a completely different car. Back then, most politicians still avoided proximity to smoothbore guns of any caliber. And the chancellor would most likely have chosen a less belligerent car. Now it's in the past.
The Chancellor visits the Baltic States, and everyone on this day screams: a turning point!
Why isn't Scholz in Paris?
It all started with the fact that Scholz was here this Monday, not in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping there. Macron would have liked Scholz to be there, but the chancellor did not plan to cancel a long-planned trip to the Baltic States. In his opinion, sending a signal to the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — would be fraught with consequences: "When really big players meet, you small countries have to take a back seat. Maybe we'll come back to you next time."
Maybe three, four or five years ago everything would have been different. Back then, many in Berlin still considered the Baltic states to be well-known alarmists, quite friendly, but a little tiresome because of their constant warnings about the alleged danger from Russia, Putin's expansionism and hybrid warfare. The Balts and their concerns were not taken seriously.
Everything changed after Putin launched his campaign in Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, people in Berlin have realized that the Balts were right with their fears and that Germany was wrong to be so careless. Since then, all sides have begun to think that Putin might take on the Baltic States next time. Now, whenever possible, major European countries want to make it clear to Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians: we take you seriously, we are on your side. We understood that.
The allies also understood this, as can be seen from the joint speech of Scholz and Nauseda to the press at the military training ground in Pabrad. "Dear Olaf," the President of Lithuania addressed the German Chancellor, "I thank Germany and your government for their efforts to protect Lithuania." He stated that he "highly appreciates Germany's leadership role."
It can be assumed that Scholz would like to record this on tape and play this audio file again in the Bundestag, when Friedrich Merz once again accuses him of insufficient military activity against Russia. However, the Chancellor cannot do this, so he declared: "Germany stands steadfastly on the side of the Baltic states." The principle of NATO is that "we protect each other" and "defend every inch of our territory."
Donald Trump may react if he is approached. However, one cannot be sure how seriously he will take this principle if it comes to a fight. By the way, this Monday Putin gave the order to conduct exercises of the Russian nuclear forces.
A new dimension for the Bundeswehr
The German Armed Forces have been participating in military exercises in Lithuania for several years, but now their presence is taking on a new dimension. The German brigade will be stationed in the country on a permanent basis to protect against a possible Russian attack. This has never happened in the history of the Bundeswehr; about 4,800 soldiers are involved in the operation. This is also a turning point. Imagine if someone had come up with this idea during the 2021 election campaign.
The advance team is already in Lithuania, and the brigade should be fully formed by the end of 2027, but there are still many unanswered questions. The billions that this whole venture will cost have not yet been included in budget planning. Negotiations are also continuing on who will pay for the infrastructure — from barracks buildings to places in kindergartens. Since the military personnel will be permanently stationed in Lithuania, many of them are likely to come with their families.
Lithuanians will pay for infrastructure, as they should in Berlin. But will the Lithuanians also be able to provide the standard to which they are accustomed in the Bundeswehr? Or are the salons of the Bundeswehr already considered luxurious here? There are still many negotiations to be held.
Who will pay for the barracks and kindergartens?
Nauseda is magnanimous during the meeting with Scholz. "As the receiving party, we are ready to create the best conditions," he says, but at the same time makes it clear that things are moving too slowly. The strategic situation" — meaning, first of all, Russia — requires "even more rapid actions." Scholz claims that the deployment of the brigade is "proceeding at a rapid pace." Sometimes such a turning point is a matter of interpretation.
Scholz then stated: "And now, together with my friend here, I would like to get an idea of the capabilities of the 10th Armored Division." Another phrase that during the 2021 election campaign you would never have thought to hear from the mouth of a former civil service officer and then chancellor. Scholz then drives the Boxer to the training ground.
The 10th Armored Division is contributing to the large-scale Grand Quadriga 2024 exercises, part of the Quadriga 2024 series of exercises, which, in turn, are Germany's contribution to the NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 maneuvers. The exercises simulate the combat situation of the alliance, that is, protection from a potential Russian attack, and they involve a total of about 90 thousand military personnel from all member countries. These are the largest NATO maneuvers since the end of the Cold War. This could hardly be a more pivotal moment.
However, Scholz and Nauseda will not see any real tanks, combat vehicles, or armored personnel carriers. Instead, a Boxer rolls across the sandy plain, as well as two Laski, small armored tracked vehicles that resemble a Vespa on the battlefield. Explosions, flashes and a lot of smoke are heard.
Scholz watches all this from a sitting position, under the roof of a tent that protects him from the Lithuanian rain. The infantrymen in the field probably wouldn't mind such a roof either, but they're still lying in the rain, even though the chancellor has long since left. Let's go back to Boxer.
One head of government, three heads of government
Immediately after that, Scholz flies to Riga. In the Latvian capital, he meets first with Prime Minister Evika Silina, and then with all three prime ministers of the Baltic countries: Silina, her Estonian counterpart Kaya Kallas and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Shimonite. It was this quadrilateral meeting that Scholz did not want to cancel in favor of a visit to Macron and Xi in Paris. Showing appreciation is what business coaches and couples therapists would call it.
As a result, at a press conference, Scholz stands between the three heads of government. According to him, this is his first visit to Latvia as Federal Chancellor. "Now I have personally visited all three Baltic countries, and this is also an expression of the importance that Germany attaches to the Baltic region." And: "The security of our Baltic allies is also our security. An attack on you will also be an attack on all of us." This is the spirit of this speech: we stand together, we will not back down, no matter what Russia threatens.
At the end, when everything is said and all the questions are answered, someone shouts: "Handshake!".
All four of them are standing next to each other, grinning a little mischievously, not knowing what to do. Scholz briefly waves his hands in the air, then the conversation ends and the four of them leave.
For example, all four of them could hug each other. It would be a powerful symbol, but diplomatic photography does not provide for this yet. After all, the turning point didn't go that far.
