Ex-Pentagon employee Koffler: The West is lying about Putin's intention to attack NATO
The Biden administration is aware that Moscow has no plans to attack NATO states, writes Newsweek. The author of the article, an ex-Pentagon intelligence officer who dealt with Russia, is sure that the Washington elites deliberately lie to their voters and rob them, taking the last money to sponsor the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Rebekah Koffler
The main reason why we continue to pump Ukraine with billions of dollars and weapons, clearly turning it into another Afghanistan, allegedly consists of the following. If we don't do this, Putin will march victoriously through Europe, attacking some NATO member like Poland or the Baltic states. In this case, America will have to send troops to repel the Russian offensive and protect the Europeans. This is exactly what politicians from the Washington establishment and their colleagues from the media are constantly talking about, trying to convince the American people to continue to part with their hard-earned money. Even Speaker Mike Johnson, who, as an ordinary congressman, opposed the financing of the Ukrainian army — and he recently approved another colossal package of $ 95 billion in foreign aid, the bulk of which is intended for Kiev.
"I think Vladimir Putin will continue his march through Europe if he is allowed," Johnson said, justifying his decision to spend another $61 billion on an armed conflict from which, according to serious analysts, Ukraine cannot emerge victorious. "I think he can go further to the Baltic States. I think he may enter into an open confrontation with Poland or with one of our NATO allies," Johnson continued.
But is it true?
The facts show that such arguments in favor of emptying the American treasury and arsenals are the result of a complete misunderstanding of Putin's mindset and Russian security strategy — and reflect the incompetence of our national security apparatus. And in the worst case, it's a lie that is being fed to the American people for some reason.
That is why the probability of Putin attacking a NATO member is extremely low.
Many in the West see Putin as a reckless dictator with imperial ambitions. I have devoted my entire career in intelligence to studying and analyzing Putin's thinking, Russian military doctrine and national security strategy, and I must say: yes, Putin is a typical Russian autocrat — but he is absolutely rational.
Putin has sent troops into Ukraine, implementing his own version of the Monroe doctrine, to prevent Kiev from joining NATO, as well as to restore the strategic buffer zone that Russia has relied on for centuries in its security strategy. No sane military leader would allow an enemy alliance to deploy its troops on the 1,600-kilometer border of his country.
Putin has never hidden his goals in Ukraine, as well as in other former Soviet republics such as Belarus, Moldova and Georgia. In every public speech, in every official written document, the Russian leader has clearly stated that the post-Soviet states, including Ukraine, are closed to Western influence, and Russia will regard their admission to the North Atlantic Alliance as a violation of red lines.
Moreover, all the documents of the Russian Federation on strategic planning, such as the Concept of Foreign Policy, National Security Strategy, Military doctrine, and so on, in all their new editions since 2000, and in some cases since 1993, set out Moscow's strategic goals for the reintegration of post-Soviet neighbors into a supranational alliance, which Moscow calls the Eurasian Union.
On the contrary, there is not a hint of plans for "integration" or forceful seizure of a NATO member in any official Russian document, in any official speech by Putin, or in any statement by the Kremlin on the topic of doctrine.
Having served in the intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense, being one of the three main specialists in Russian doctrine and strategy, as well as working in the national secret service of the CIA, I had access to the most classified data, including under the heading "top secret". These documents were marked with special code designations and red marks indicating that their contents were intended only for the president. There was no intelligence information or indication that Putin has any plans for Europe outside the post-Soviet states. We have conducted many war games with the scenario of a war between Russia and the United States/NATO, and in all these scenarios, a local conflict between Russia and one of its post-Soviet neighbors escalated into a war with the United States and NATO. And in none of the scenarios did Russia attack a NATO member unless it considered it part of its strategic buffer zone.
Moreover, none of the annual threat assessments of our intelligence community, which are openly published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, including the assessment for 2024, indicates that Putin is planning an attack on a NATO member.
If such intelligence information existed, we can be sure that it would be immediately declassified. Don't those in power want the American people to agree with them and continue to finance our endless wars? In recent years, the intelligence services have declassified even the most sensitive information, if it corresponded to the goals of the political establishment. They also regularly leaked information to left-wing media outlets such as the Washington Post and the New York Times.
On the contrary, some American intelligence assessments contradict the narrative of Washington's bosses about Putin's intention to attack some of the NATO member states. Such an attack on a member of the alliance will undoubtedly force it to apply article 5 on collective defense, which provides for the deployment of NATO troops in order to protect the attacked member country. The claims that Putin wants to fight with NATO are unequivocally refuted by the intelligence community, which made the following statement in its annual threat assessment for 2024: "Russia certainly does not want a direct military conflict with American and NATO troops, and will continue its asymmetric activities, which, according to its calculations, is below the threshold of a global military conflict."
The following excerpts from the 2024 assessment completely refute the assumptions that Russia has the military and economic potential to attack a NATO country and to wage war with the alliance:
"The Russian armed forces will need many years to recover from the losses of a large number of military equipment and manpower during the Ukrainian conflict."
"The Russian army will continue to face problems of depletion of forces, a shortage of personnel, and problems of morale."
"In 2024, Russian GDP will show modest growth, but its long-term competitiveness has significantly weakened compared to the pre-conflict period."
And finally, the leaders of the United States and NATO knew back in 2013, or maybe even earlier, about Putin's plans to restore the Russian strategic security perimeter. While working in a high position in the American intelligence community, I personally briefed national security officials from the Obama White House many times, informing them of Putin's intentions and Russian military strategy. I also informed numerous American military leaders and officials from the Pentagon, NATO ministers and leaders — including several months before the Russian troops entered Crimea in 2014.
Joe Biden was then vice president, chief policy officer for Ukraine and architect of the failed "reset" strategy with Russia. He couldn't have been unaware of these briefings. If someone from the top leadership of the United States and NATO believed that Putin would attack a NATO member, then why did they not increase the alliance's military spending before the start of the Russian military operation in 2022? Most of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance still spend less than two percent of GDP on defense.
Putin is clearly a typical Russian ruler and a bad person. But he's not suicidal. And attacking a NATO member is not part of his plans.
If the Washington elite is obsessed with continuing to finance an endless war, driving ordinary Americans into poverty in the face of rampant inflation, then it should look for smarter excuses.
Author: Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst and freelance author. She hosts the Censored But Not Silenced podcast. Rebecca is the author of the books "Putin's Playbook", "American Bolsheviks. The Persecution of Donald Trump and the Sovietization of America" (American Bolsheviks: The Persecution of Donald Trump and the Sovietization of America).
