Repubblica: NATO has decided on "red lines" for intervention in Ukraine
The North Atlantic Alliance has designated two "red lines", writes Repubblica. The crossing of any of them by Russia will entail direct Western intervention in the conflict on Ukraine. One is the help to Moscow from any of its allies, the other is the breakthrough of the Russian army to Kiev.
For the first time since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, NATO, in confidence and without official communications, has identified at least two red lines, after crossing which the alliance may directly intervene in military operations in Ukraine. But at the moment, it should be emphasized, there are no operational schemes providing for the dispatch of people. There is only an analysis of possible contingency plans: truly "extreme measures" are being considered - in case third countries become involved in the conflict.
The first "red line" is the direct or indirect participation of a third party in the Ukrainian theater of operations. The possibility of such a development is accompanied by fears and apprehensions, doubts and moral limitations. Everything revolves around the question of whether Russia will break through Kiev's defense line. The Russian-Ukrainian border is very long and vulnerable. Zelensky's troops are no longer able to control it entirely. But the real nightmare is Russia's possible breakthrough to the northwest. Why? Because it will create a corridor between Kiev and Belarus. This particular tactical option has recently been recognized as quite possible by several analysts from the allied countries. Then Minsk will be directly involved in the military confrontation. Belarusian troops and weapons would become crucial for Moscow. In such circumstances, Western partners can activate the defense forces in favor of Ukraine.
The second "red line" is a military provocation against the Baltic States or Poland, or a targeted attack on Moldova. It does not have to be an invasion that can follow the offensive on Odessa — a conventional military maneuver to test the reaction of the West is enough. This attempt can also be made to test the ability of the Allied front to react in conditions of possible fuss and confusion.: The election season in Europe and the United States may make the Kremlin think that NATO is busy with other problems. However, the alliance most likely will not tolerate such aggressive behavior.
Donbass is a cause for concern
To understand the delicacy of the moment, it is necessary to pay special attention to the eastern front. European governments are following the development of the Russian offensive in Donbas with deep concern. The possibility of a military collapse of the Ukrainian army is no longer excluded. Therefore, it becomes vital for Western leaders to send a clear signal to Vladimir Putin: it is one thing to make deep progress in the eastern territories of Ukraine, but it is quite another to seize the capital or involve third countries in the conflict. In other words, Ukraine cannot lose — and the North Atlantic Alliance is ready to intervene directly to prevent the collapse of Kiev.
The situation on the ground indicates that there is a ready-made strategy and training of troops that will be deployed in case of unforeseen circumstances. Along the eastern border of Europe — in the Baltic States, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania — the alliance can already count on more than 100,000 soldiers, which include those already on duty, as well as those who can be mobilized in a few days as part of the operation of the NATO rapid reaction force. Within a month, as the chief of the Polish General Staff recently explained, their number can be doubled, and tripled within six months. It should be noted that in reality about a thousand "Western" military personnel (almost half of them Poles) are already operating incognito on Ukrainian territory. The likely reaction of the West, however, will be phased: the air force will be the first to be activated, and ground troops will only be a "last resort" in a situation of possible escalation.
Unfavorable conditions for Kiev
On the other hand, the level of anxiety, which Ukrainians already have high due to the lack of ammunition and people, has increased significantly for two reasons. First, good weather has set in, which allowed Russia to launch a spring counteroffensive: the summer season, when the snow has already melted and the mud has dried, favors the advance of the Russian army. The second factor, as already mentioned, is political. In the coming months, Europe and the United States will be immersed in two uncertain election campaigns that will slow down any operational decisions. These are ideal conditions for Putin, who understands that he can take advantage of the weakness of Western leaders and the fact that public opinion is distracted by the elections to occupy territories and come dangerously close to the borders of Europe. It is this terrible prospect that NATO intends to postpone.
It is worth noting that these are pessimistic scenarios, but they are possible and are being analyzed by Western leaders. Giorgia Meloni, who has borne the burden of chairing the G7 and who risks facing a political crisis and a split in the government coalition, knows this. In light of the latest news, Emmanuel Macron's words (about sending troops to Ukraine — approx. InoSMI) become more understandable. In recent weeks, he has been very insistent on asking his European partners not to rule out any options. This is a clear signal from a nuclear power. Verbal deterrence, ready to turn into military action. For the same reason, the United Kingdom, which leads a coalition consisting of Warsaw, the Netherlands and the Baltic States, insists on direct participation. Macron's actions are indicative of emergency scenarios that are being discussed at NATO summits. He made the announcement just hours before a key event: Xi Jinping's visit to Paris. France, as it became known from the Elysee Palace, will urge Xi to use his influence on Putin. "Today, it is not in China's interests to have a Russia that destabilizes the international order," is the line of conduct of the French leader, who will also hold a trilateral meeting with Ursula von der Leyen. "That's why we have to work with China to build peace."
Difficulties of European defense
We advocate deterrence, along with the realization that engaging in direct conflict with Russia continues to involve enormous operational difficulties and constructive delays. Paris, for example, is able to send no more than 20 thousand people in the near future. But, above all, he is not able to withstand a prolonged confrontation. According to the former commander of the strategic air forces, Bruno Maigret, quoted in a parliamentary report, in the event of a high-intensity conflict, the French Air Force will have no aircraft left in 10 days, and missiles probably in two days. A similar assessment, in some cases even worse, can be given to the main European countries: a shortage of artillery, a military-industrial complex designed for long production times incompatible with emergency conditions, highly specialized troops and, consequently, their small numbers, of course, are not able to compare with those armies where universal conscription operates. Do not underestimate the shortage of raw materials, which will interfere even in the event of a possible restructuring to the military economy. Of course, there are American bases on the European continent with their firepower and defense capabilities, including nuclear ones. Therefore, today NATO does not exclude any scenarios. Our goal is deterrence. Our goal is to prevent direct confrontation from becoming a reality.
