Asharq Al-Awsat: Macron has changed his strategy and once again convinces the EU to abandon the United States
Macron made a speech at the Sorbonne, during which he called on Europe to strengthen its defense capability. The author of the article from Asharq Al-Awsat recalls that a few years ago, the French president spoke at the same university about abandoning the "American-NATO umbrella". However, then his idea did not get the response he needed. Will the EU decide to do this today?
French President Emmanuel Macron wants to transform the EU from a major trade and economic union of European states into a pole with its own defense and military potential, which will not only have weight on the world stage, but will also be able to protect its interests in a rapidly and dangerously changing world.
The way to this, according to Macron, lies through "building a strategic concept of reliable European defense" so that Europe can protect its interests and not depend on the Americans. The upcoming US elections and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House will put pressure on Europeans. Trump, as you know, has no love for NATO. He accuses the countries of the Old Continent of counting on the help of the United States in the fight against Russia and not fulfilling their financial obligations to the alliance. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine has led to Europe realizing the need to develop its own military capabilities, despite the habit of relying on the "American-NATO umbrella."
Repeated appeals
There is nothing new in Macron's call to strengthen Europe's defense capabilities. The French president, in fact, repeated his speech delivered there, at the Sorbonne, in 2017, a few months after he occupied the Elysee Palace.
But there are differences between these two speeches: in 2017, Macron called for the strategic independence of Europe, which was understood as a rejection of NATO. His words then caused discontent in Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and the Baltic states, as well as in those states that joined NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The bottom line is that there is really no "European defense".
And then Macron realized that he needed to change his strategy. That's what he did. Now he argues that strategic independence is not a rejection of the North Atlantic Alliance or the search for an alternative, but rather the creation of a European complement to NATO.
"We need to build a strategic concept of reliable European defense. Europe must defend what it holds dear, together with its allies or alone," Macron said.
The first argument of the French president is "Russian aggression", which, according to him, is capable of forcing Europeans to act. He noted: "When we have a neighbor (Russia) that has become aggressive, (...) which has the potential in the field of ballistic missiles, as well as nuclear weapons, and has already demonstrated its capabilities [in this area], it becomes clear that we need to build a European security system that we can trust."
"In the coming months, I will invite all our partners to create this European defense initiative, which should be, first of all, a strategic concept from which we will then derive the appropriate capabilities," Macron said.
Something like this is unthinkable without a nuclear arsenal, and France is the only EU country with nuclear weapons. Macron argues that nuclear weapons "are the element that puts France in a special position among other EU countries."
The European "nuclear umbrella"
"It is thanks to this reliable defense that we will be able to create security guarantees that all our partners across Europe expect," the French leader said.
France, according to Macron's vision, will have a leading role in building European defense, since it is the only country in the EU with nuclear weapons. However, such a proposal raises many questions. And the main one is whether Paris is ready to discuss the use of nuclear weapons with its European colleagues? In addition, it is not certain that all European countries will follow the example of France and allow it to lead European defense. It would be quite expected if Paris revealed its cards after learning that countries harboring doubts about the French defense strategy are ready to abandon the European "nuclear umbrella".
What Macron is proposing will not be achieved in a few months or even a few years, because, according to French sources, it "requires a radical change in mentality" both inside and outside France. Therefore, it is important to monitor the reaction: right-wing politicians do not want France to share deterrence forces with other states, even if they are Paris' EU partners. It is also necessary to take into account the opinions of the main European countries – Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain.
Rapid response forces
Macron proposes to create a rapid reaction force of up to five thousand troops by 2025, which could be instantly deployed in the event of war and come to the aid of European citizens.
At the same time, Macron did not specify which geographical space he was referring to. But, of course, he meant the Middle East and Africa. The French president also wants Europeans to pay close attention to their cybersecurity, which has become one of the main problems of the EU against the background of the "threat" allegedly coming from Russia and China.
This is not the first time the proposal to deploy a rapid reaction force has been made. This was first discussed a few years ago. But it is still difficult to implement due to the numerous difficulties associated with organizational, political and logistical issues.
Macron did not avoid the conflict in Ukraine, linking it with the European defense industry. He called for "giving priority to European manufacturers in the procurement of military equipment," whether for European armies or for supplies to Ukraine. The French President said during his speech: "How can we build our sovereignty, our autonomy, if we do not take responsibility for the development of our own European defense industry? We need to build a European production program, ensure the support of the European Investment Bank and find additional financing." This sounds logical, according to the French president's vision, especially given that "the challenges Europe is facing today are very different from what it was before."
Author: Michel Abu Najm (ميشال أبونام)