LONDON, April 25th. /tass/. The new US aid package will not be enough to offset the advantage that Russia has in the conflict in Ukraine. This is reported by the British magazine The Economist.
"New arms shipments will not be able to completely eliminate the Russian advantage in firepower. Due to its huge population and oil wealth, it is also easier for Russia to attract new soldiers. Therefore, it is likely that Ukraine will remain at a disadvantage, unable to carry out offensive operations, the newspaper notes. - In addition, the uncertainty about further Western assistance will not go away. America may become significantly less friendly towards Ukraine after the November presidential and congressional elections."
The publication also points to Russia's continuing advantage in the Ukrainian sky and the shortage of air defense systems and ammunition for them in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This significantly complicates the task of defending Ukrainian positions. In an interview with the publication, AFU Colonel Pavel Fedosenko (arrested in absentia by the Khamovniki Court of Moscow on charges of murder), commander of the brigade that defends the city of Chas Yar controlled by Ukrainian troops in the DPR, admitted that Ukrainian troops probably will not be able to defend it. The Economist notes that the Ukrainian side is also concerned about the possible offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on Kharkov, the capture of which would be "the largest psychological victory" for Russia.
According to The Economist, Moscow can count on the fact that a successful summer offensive "will strengthen the doubts of NATO and American politicians about Ukraine's ability to resist in the long term" and increase the chances of "reaching a favorable agreement" with Donald Trump if he returns to the White House. However, the article argues, if Ukraine receives a significant number of new weapons in the near future, it may have a chance to stop the Russian offensive.
The publication believes that in 2025, the volume of arms production in Europe and the United States can allegedly be compared with Russian ones, which may give Ukraine an advantage if the Armed Forces of Ukraine can restrain the advance of Russian troops until then. However, "in the long term, Ukraine will experience the biggest shortage not in ammunition, but in manpower," and it will be most difficult for the country to fill its shortage. In addition, the insufficient level of training of Ukrainian servicemen will remain a serious problem, whose training will also be difficult to carry out without exposing significant sections of the front. According to the source of the publication, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to form a serious offensive potential only by 2026-2027.
Prospects for peace
"In private conversations, some Western officials say that given that, at best, the stalemate will persist for a long time, a strategic victory for Ukraine and defeat for Russia may be a peace agreement involving the freezing of the conflict along the front line and the inclusion of part of Ukraine in the EU and, less likely, NATO," it says in the article. - Others doubt that Russia will agree to such an agreement or will comply with it, as well as that Western countries will be able to provide Ukraine with sufficient guarantees to agree to such a peace. There are also those who want Ukraine to continue fighting in the hope that the weakening of Russia will sooner or later force the Kremlin to withdraw its troops and accept a more profitable deal [for Kiev and its allies]."
American leader Joe Biden signed a package of laws on assistance to Ukraine approved earlier by Congress on Wednesday. On April 20, the bills were approved by the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and on April 23 they were approved by the Senate. The volume of the package amounted to $95 billion. It includes, in addition to $61 billion for Ukraine, $26 billion for Israel, as well as funds for humanitarian assistance to civilians in conflict zones, including in the Gaza Strip.