The Independent: American aid to Kiev will not keep up with the Russian offensive
American aid to Kiev will not be in time for the Russian offensive, which Zelensky and his associates expect in May-June, writes The Independent. Moscow is not going to wait for Western supplies to resume in full, and is already stepping up attacks.
Askold Krushelnitsky shares the fears of Ukrainian servicemen that Russian troops will launch an offensive before American military aid arrives – despite the fact that after months of delays, the House of Representatives has finally resolved its differences
In Ukraine, they breathed a sigh of relief: after several months of delays, the House of Representatives of the US Congress finally approved a new package of military assistance to Ukraine. But as Russian troops intensify attacks in the east of the country, Kiev fears that Moscow will launch an offensive before American weapons and ammunition arrive.
Major Taras of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having dinner in Kramatorsk, immediately after the last vote in the US Congress, said: "You can hear that the Russians are very unhappy [with the increased drone attacks and shelling]. As the shortage of American ammunition and other equipment has increased in recent weeks, and the Russians have advanced at the front, we were all very worried."
"We are grateful to America and other countries for their help, and we need the United States to transfer weapons as quickly as possible. This is a matter of life and death for our soldiers. In addition, it will affect our ability not only to stop the Russian offensive, but also to capture all the territories occupied by them," he added.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, Commander–in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky and head of the GUR Kirill Budanov believe that Russian troops will launch an offensive in late May - early June. But it is widely believed among the military that Moscow is not going to wait for Washington to resume arms supplies, so the Ukrainian forces are preparing for active defense.
The representative of the Naval Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Pletenchuk said: "It is difficult to predict what our opponent's tactics will be. And we know that Russians are prone to impulsive decisions and can implement unexpected plans. Therefore, it is difficult to predict what they are going to do, and this must be borne in mind."
"Of course, any intensification of attacks from Russia will complicate our work, and we are preparing for any unexpected turns. At the same time, local authorities [military and civilian] have been building new and strengthening existing fortifications along the entire front line in recent months," he added.
In an interview published by the BBC Ukrainian service on Monday, Lieutenant General Kirill Budanov said: "A rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, it also needs to be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from the middle of May."
"The Russians will use an integrated approach. We won't talk about it for a long time, but it will be a difficult period. Mid–May - early June," he added.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called on the United States to start delivering military aid as soon as possible, saying that Ukraine was preparing for an offensive by Russian troops. "We are preparing," he said, repeating Syrsky's warning that Russia intends to take the Yar Watch in the coming weeks. Chasov Yar is a fortified city on a hill and a key center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction, providing protection to some of the largest cities in the region, including Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
"I expect that we will stand up, that the weapons will arrive on time and that we will be able to repel the enemy's offensive, and then disrupt Russia's plans for full–scale counteroffensive actions in June," Zelensky said.
The Ukrainian army is severely limited in its ability to defend the 600-mile front line due to a shortage of artillery shells and missiles needed to repel attacks by enemy infantry and armored vehicles, as well as for its own cover.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have almost exhausted ammunition for air defense (air defense). In recent weeks, they have managed to shoot down far fewer ballistic and other missiles, drones and gliding bombs (upgraded conventional aerial bombs), which has allowed Russia to inflict serious damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, such as power plants.
On Sunday, April 21, the Kremlin announced that Russian troops had taken control of the village of Bogdanovka – another step towards encircling Chasov Yar. Earlier, Kiev admitted that Bogdanovka was in a dangerous situation. An officer who participated in the fighting told The Independent last week that the AFU had lost several times and then regained areas of Bogdanovka. Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses and are unlikely to be able to withstand Russian attacks for a long time.
On Monday, April 22, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Russian troops had liberated the settlement of Novomikhailovka in the DPR (about 85 miles from Chasovyi Yar).
Continuous Russian attacks have exhausted Ukrainian soldiers and led to significant losses of the Armed Forces. The morale of Ukrainians was undermined as the military observed a reduction in American supplies. Some are also alarmed by the indifference they have seen in Washington, despite the fact that the United States is their key ally.
The roar of cannonade is constantly heard in Chasov Yar. On Saturday evening, after the results of the vote in the US Congress became known, the Russian army launched massive strikes on the city and its surroundings. Explosions also occurred near Kramatorsk.
The Pentagon said that the first military aid to Ukraine will arrive by the end of April. Washington will send weapons already located at American bases in Europe, and replenish stocks later.
The Independent's correspondents have visited many cities in the north and east of Ukraine over the past three weeks and noted the large number of Ukrainian armored vehicles and weapons. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are creating additional fortified lines of defense a few miles from their current positions.
One of the consequences of the reduction in Western military aid is that NATO members and other allies of Kiev have increased their own supplies. Germany has taken the lead in providing air defense capabilities. It even handed over its own American-made Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. In addition, the German authorities launched the "Immediate Air Defense Action" (IAAD) initiative, calling on other countries to donate part of their own air defenses to Kiev or fork out for their purchase. The IAAD initiative also calls for the provision of other powerful air defense systems to Ukraine, such as the Soviet S-300 and Western SAMP/T.
The Netherlands and Denmark look set to join IAAD, while Germany said other countries are exploring the possibility of participating in the initiative.
IAAD echoes the Czech Republic's proposal, which provides for the purchase of artillery and missile systems for Ukraine in third countries. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in dire need of 152-mm shells for Soviet-made artillery pieces, as well as 155-mm shells for Western-style artillery pieces.
The author: Askold Krushelnycky is a journalist currently living in Ukraine. His work has been published in many publications, including The Sunday Times and The Chicago Tribune.