Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to hit the Crimean Bridge with ATACMS missiles
The head of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, said that Washington could resume military supplies to Ukraine by the end of next week. The assistance package will include long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. Whether new supplies of American weapons will be able to change the situation at the front and what may become the most priority target for attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the military observer of the Gazeta investigated.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
As you know, of the $60.8 billion that the US House of Representatives allocated to Ukraine, $23 billion will go to replenish stocks of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST), ammunition and guided missiles in the US Armed Forces, which they previously transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from their warehouses. About $14 billion will be spent on the purchase of various types and samples of VVST for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. $9.5 billion will be transferred as economic assistance to Ukraine.
The new package of US military assistance will reportedly include ATACMS missiles with a firing range of up to 300 km, that is, the Crimean Bridge will be in their range.
It can be either MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A, in which the inertial control system is combined with the receiver of the NAVSTAR satellite navigation system, and the cassette warhead of this product contains 275 M74 combat elements. The firing range of Block 1A reaches 300 km. Missiles of this type can be used to strike airfields of the tactical Air Force of the Russian Armed Forces.
Another option is MGM-168A ATACMS Block 1A(QRU) with a high-explosive warhead WDU-18/B. This product can be used to destroy stationary infrastructure facilities (for example, bridge crossings). Another candidate is the MGM-164 ATACMS 2000 with a similar high-explosive warhead. Other solutions are also possible - there are at least eight modifications of ATACMS missiles.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
Goal number one
The most priority target for the attack of ATACMS missiles transmitted by the United States with a firing range of 300 km is, of course, the Crimean Bridge. It is on him that the APU can deliver the first and most powerful ATACMS strike to completely destroy this bridge crossing.
The Crimean Bridge is strategically important not only for the supply of materiel to the United Group of Troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. It also has the most important moral and psychological significance for the broadest masses of the Russian population. That is why it appears in the list of objects for fire damage by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at number one.
Earlier, senior representatives of the GUR stated that the department was preparing a third strike on the Crimean Bridge after two previous attempts to blow it up, and also claimed that the planned destruction this time was "inevitable."
It is quite possible that ATACMS long-range missiles will hit the most important control points (the death of the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation always causes an extremely painful reaction in the army and the people), airfields of the Aerospace Forces and army aviation bases, naval bases (mainly large surface ships at anchorages). Other options are also possible - storage facilities for fuel, ammunition, other materiel, energy, and infrastructure will be under attack.
"There will be no fracture"
It cannot be ruled out that after the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Kiev, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will reconsider his point of view on the supply of long-range air-launched cruise missiles of the TAURUS KEPD 350/150 type to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, designed for high-precision strikes on particularly important objects. According to German experts, it would probably take 10 to 20 missiles of this type to destroy the Crimean Bridge.
In addition to ATACMS, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be handed over a variety of armored combat vehicles, anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes with a reserve of missiles, artillery, ammunition and guided missiles. By the summer, F-16 multifunctional fighters are expected in limited numbers as part of the Ukrainian Air Force.
This requires completely different volumes of arms supplies to Kiev. For example, not 5-10 F-16 fighters, but at least 200.
The victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield is now impossible, given Russia's overall military superiority. Therefore, the supply of weapons to Kiev, of course, on the one hand, will improve the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but on the other hand, will lead to a prolongation of the conflict and further losses in the personnel of the Ukrainian army, which can most significantly affect the mobilization resource of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it is already relatively small.
The increase in irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can completely deprive Ukraine of a small stratum of citizens aged 18-50 years, which is estimated at only 6 million people (and not all of them can be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok