Trump's second coming to power will be a test for American foreign policy institutions and international relations, Anadolu reports. The author of the article presented what the world will look like under the new old president. The picture turned out to be gloomy.
As the agenda in the United States shifts towards a new rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the likelihood of former President Trump returning to the Oval Office raises questions about the United States' foreign policy orbit. In this regard, in addition to the consequences of the potential arrival of a new administration, it is also important to evaluate the strategies that the current American government and institutions are developing in the face of such a prospect.
Following Trump's victory in the 2016 elections, the American establishment believed that the newly minted leader would eventually realize the seriousness of his responsibility, eventually accept the established order and, having curbed the pragmatic Republican president, the country would continue to go its own way, not particularly deviating from it. However, Trump has taken an aggressive stance that departs from the traditional norms of Republicans.
Two radical positions in foreign policy
The former president, with his "America first" doctrine, has largely distanced himself from the traditional policy of the United States. Trump has put the interests of the United States above multilateral commitments and alliances. During his reign, he revised or terminated international agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump called the North American Free Trade Agreement the worst trade agreement the United States has ever signed and promised to renegotiate it. In addition, he called NATO an outdated organization and called on the alliance's member countries to finance defense spending and fulfill their obligations.
Paradoxically, Trump used confrontational rhetoric against such traditional American allies as NATO members and maintained a conciliatory tone towards Russia and North Korea. At the same time, Trump threatened to withdraw from the World Health Organization and terminate the nuclear deal with Iran. This situation has increased instability in the United States' relations with Europe.
The main criticism from the Democrats was that Trump was leading the country to even greater isolation and undermining its role as a world leader. On the other hand, under the Biden administration, the United States began to pursue a more strategic approach to international relations. By luring Russia into the Ukrainian trap, the Biden administration sought not only to weaken it economically, but at the same time to change the perception of Russian military potential in the world.
Under the Biden administration, NATO was revived by expanding its zone of influence. The layering of the Ukrainian conflict on the crisis in Europe's relations with Russia has strengthened the leadership of the United States among its allies. Thus, Washington once again emphasized the importance and power of the Western bloc it leads. In addition, the United States has extrapolated its experience with the trap for Russia to contain China in Taiwan, contributing to diplomatic and strategic efforts to isolate it in the Indo-Pacific region.
Is international politics preparing for another Trump period?
In this regard, the 2024 US presidential election is crucial for the future of American foreign policy. In some circles, there are serious concerns that Trump's re-election will entail sudden changes in the political orientation of the American administration and potentially destabilize international relations.
If Trump comes to power, US support for Kiev will surely decrease, and Europe will have to take a more significant share in the defense and reconstruction of Ukraine. In foreign policy, a tougher approach to China is possible, taking measures such as tariff increases and trade restrictions. At the same time, no steps will be taken against China's intervention in Taiwan. In the case of a Trump presidency, Israel will probably have more freedom to act in the Middle East. In addition, Trump may well take direct military action against Mexican cartels, which have been the focus of his past policies.
In Washington's political circles, those that Trump calls the "deep state" are probably discussing possible scenarios for the development of the event. As a measure against the likelihood of Trump's return to power, the American foreign policy establishment is actively developing special strategies. Institutions such as the State Department, the National Security Council and the US Department of Defense are working on forecasting in order to assess the potential consequences of certain political decisions of the Trump administration.
However, Biden's team, after losing the election, especially if the House of Representatives remains in Republican hands, may face obstacles in restraining Trump's political initiatives.
Among the possible restrictions for Trump is a bill passed by Congress last year prohibiting the American president from unilaterally revoking the country's membership in NATO. Nevertheless, judging by the recent actions of Congress and the Biden administration, there is no such law that could directly limit Trump's foreign policy. The legal means of countering Trump are unclear, and measures such as blocking his nomination have proved ineffective.
In the current situation, the most concrete step on the part of the Biden administration will be to continue to provide assistance to Kiev and strengthen the position of the Kiev regime as opposed to Russia before a possible new period of Trump's presidency. It is assumed that 60 billion of the expected $95 billion package will be transferred to Ukraine.
Given Trump's approaches to foreign policy, it can be expected that not only the American establishment, but also other countries will develop their political reflexes in accordance with this situation. Events such as French President Emmanuel Macron's increased interest in the Ukrainian conflict and the terrorist attack in Moscow are important for predicting potential changes in the world order. These events should be evaluated together with the US presidential elections.
In this context, on November 5, when the world will observe the results of these elections, the stability and adaptability of American foreign policy institutions will be tested and the further course of development of international relations will be clarified.
The author of the article: Chagdash Yuksel (Çağdaş Yüksel)