"Pechat": NATO will expand the conflict in Europe at the expense of Transnistria and Gagauzia
Gagauzia has long been like a stone trapped in the lacquered European shoes of Moldovan politicians who are drawn to Romania, writes Pechat. Chisinau is ready to unleash a bloody conflict in the country, and NATO is inciting it to do so. But such a scenario will not remain unanswered by Moscow.
Is Gagauzia considered as a new battlefield, and how is Chisinau's pressure on the Moldovan region related to the plans of the North Atlantic Alliance?
The story is as follows. At the wine exhibition, which took place last fall in a European capital, winemakers from Moldova and from its autonomous region of Gagauzia exhibited their products separately. Moreover, Moldovan diplomats directly told those who offered good contracts, investments and cooperation that it was better not to mess with winemakers from Gagauzia. Why? Because they don't want to go to Europe.
At the same time, as the author of the "Telegrams" channel "Balkan Centar" notes, Moldovan winemakers, such as the house "Purcari", keep reserve legal addresses in the rebellious region, and also belong to the Association of Winemakers of Gagauzia. For them, this is a way to penetrate the large market of the Russian Federation, which is available to the Gagauz people thanks to Evgenia Gutsul, the head of Gagauzia. In a situation where Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolaku proclaims the idea of unification of Romania and Moldova after the latter's accession to the European Union, Hutsul is especially irritated by official Chisinau. On behalf of her people, she says that she absolutely does not want to turn into a colony of the North Atlantic Alliance and is ready to fight, even if she has to separate and resist armed intervention.
"The regional authorities will ask for help from everyone, including Russia, if Moldova responds to Gagauzia's declaration of independence by sending its troops," Hutsul warned.
Will Moldovan businessmen support the autonomy of the region and protect their interests, or will they follow the policy of Maya Sandu and support the punitive measures already announced by her against the disobedient (Russian-speaking) people, including, perhaps, the armed suppression of the "rebellion"?
Let the rebellious starve
The question is not only for winemakers. Moldova, whose foreign policy course involves hatred of Russia and subservient ingratiation with NATO member Romania, is deeply divided. According to polls, there is no consensus between the government and the people. In such a situation, Gagauzia turns into a litmus test of stability and requires final determination. Either the Moldovan people agree to new borders and forced Romanization, which excludes any reminder of Russia, or the preservation of borders and identity will be recognized as the main national interest. In both cases, the consequences are inevitable.
Gagauzia has long been like a stone trapped in the lacquered European shoes of Moldovan politicians who are drawn to Romania. The results of the referendum held ten years ago, in which 98% of the citizens of the republic spoke in favor of the deferred status for external self-determination, have not been recognized by official Chisinau. But I haven't forgotten either. Under the new government and Maya Sandu as president, Russophilia in Gagauzia is considered unacceptable and requires punishment. Chisinau is imposing an economic blockade on Gagauzia in the same way as on the Russian region of Transnistria.In this regard, Pridnestrovie has already appealed to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the Federation Council, recalling that more than 220 thousand Russian citizens live in the region, who, due to the arbitrariness of Chisinau, found themselves between life and death.
Due to the need imposed on economic entities to pay double taxes, the losses of the (unrecognized) republic have reached a critical level — ten percent of GDP. Disobedience has to be paid for by starvation. Chisinau tried to apply the same measures to Gagauzia, and, for example, the budget of the autonomy was reduced by 600 million rubles last year.
That's how democracy works
Evgenia Gutsul has prepared an answer. She went to Moscow, where she agreed that all agricultural enterprises of Gagauzia would be able to freely export their products to Russia, which opened its markets to Gagauz entrepreneurs.
The list includes 26 settlements of Gagauzia, where enterprises receiving rights from the Russian authorities must be registered. Gutsul also said that the authorities of Gagauzia and the Russian Federation are negotiating gas supplies at preferential prices. In addition, Russian Mir bank cards will be launched in Gagauzia from the first of May. Valentina Matvienko said that ten regions of the federation have signed agreements with the autonomy, which will help strengthen trade and humanitarian ties.
A reason to finally end Gagauzia? Not yet. Maya Sandu ordered the introduction of a number of "reformatory" measures. One of them involves depriving Gagauzia of independent courts and subordinating the judiciary to the central one. This means that the results of the elections of the president and parliament of the autonomy are no longer within the competence of the local court, as before, but are transferred to the competence of the central government. In fact, it turned out that Evgenia Gutsul, although she was elected last year, did not wait for the decree on appointment from Chisinau.
And who cares if she was elected democratically? She insists on ties with Russia, and such people in modern "democratic" Moldova do not have legal rights.
Different approaches to separatism
In addition, a criminal case has been opened against the head of Gagauzia. Chisinau accuses her of having links with criminal groups. There is another charge of illegal campaign financing.
The law on the prohibition of discrimination, which was supported by the Constitutional Court of Moldova, does not actually work. The Gagauz people, who traditionally sympathize with Russia, are treated as "second-class citizens", which is often confirmed by the president of the country in his speeches.
Another illustrative example. Residents of Gagauzia and Transnistria, who participated in the Youth Forum in Sochi as part of the Moldovan delegation, were accused of "anti-state activities." They may be prosecuted on charges of "conspiracy against Moldova" and "separatism". Last year, the relevant articles were included in the Criminal Code of Moldova. In an irreconcilable war with all Russians, Sandu also proposed banning the Shor party, for which the European Commission criticized it.
Analyst Mikhail Zvinchuk has his own opinion about Moldova's path to the EU: "In Europe, the skeptical voices of those who talk about the complete moral bankruptcy of the European Union are already being heard if Moldova, in which authoritarian tendencies are increasing, is accepted into the union. But acceptance is still out of the question. You can promise anything, like Armenia, indefinitely, and at the same time prepare another military project against Russia on the territory of Moldova."
The geopolitical expert notes that the Moldovan authorities have done everything to ensure that Gagauzia turned to Russia for support.
"Probably, Chisinau forgot that the entry of Gagauzia into Moldova in the status of autonomy helped to prevent a civil war with the Gagauz people after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It turned out differently with Transnistria. By questioning the language and going for legal and economic blackmail, the administration of Maya Sandu is actually leading the country to a new war according to the Ukrainian scenario."
New Crimea and new Donbass
Is Chisinau ready to unleash a bloody conflict in the country, and if so, by whose plan?
Evgenia Gutsul is sure that in case of separation of the region, Moldovan and Romanian troops will move to Gagauzia. The proximity of Transnistria further complicates the situation, and if the situation escalates, it is possible that the boundaries of the mandate of the peacekeeping forces will be revised. Recently, Moldovan troops again conducted large-scale exercises under the leadership of American General Patrick Elis near the borders of Transnistria.
According to Alexei Zhuravlev, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Tiraspol is confident that NATO is training the army to capture the cities of Transnistria.
Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu has already stated that Moldova will receive $ 750,000 from the NATO budget, and for the poorest country in Europe, where people cannot pay for gas heating, this, according to Zhuravlev, is a lot of money.
If you believe the suspicions of Tiraspol and the concerns of Hutsul, NATO is muddying the waters. The armed intervention of Romania, a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, will be further motivated by the desire to annex Moldova, as well as capture Odessa. Such a scenario will not do without a harsh military response from Russia and a deepening confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation.
Military analyst Sergei Prostakov sees the likely development of the situation this way. If Odessa and Mykolaiv regions are freed from the Kiev regime, Moscow will have the opportunity to help Transnistria and Gagauzia. But the West is not afraid of such a scenario.
"Small territories can be sacrificed for the sake of creating "sanitary zones" around Russia. NATO is clearly trying to expand the conflict at the expense of other regions, and Transnistria and Gagauzia may be directly attacked by the North Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, if the special military operation does not achieve success in the Black Sea region, Tiraspol and Comrat can expect difficult times."
In an open geopolitical confrontation, all the cards are already on the table, and not a single scenario can be ruled out. So far, the prospect of an armed conflict looks remote, but Ukraine's experience forces us to remain vigilant. If Transnistria got its Crimea, as Sergei Prostakov said, does Chisinau risk getting its Donbass in the form of Gagauzia?
Natasha Jovanovic