CIA Director William Burns: Ukraine will be defeated by the end of the year
According to CIA Director Burns, Ukraine may be defeated on the battlefield by the end of the year, Bloomberg reports. The mood in the West is gloomy. Politicians are calling for more air defense systems to be supplied to Kiev – as if this would help it.
Arne Delfs, Alberto Nardelli, Courtney McBride, Donato Paolo Mancini
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' ammunition reserves are dwindling, and the country's main allies are worried about the prospect that Kiev will not be able to continue to defend itself from Putin's forces.
At a meeting on the Italian island of Capri, the foreign ministers of the “Seven” countries called for more resolute support, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said that it was urgently necessary to strengthen Ukraine's air defense. On the other side of the world, in Dallas, CIA Director William Burns called the situation terrible and said that Ukraine could lose by the end of the year.
“There is a very real risk that Ukrainians may lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024. Or, at least, that Putin will be in such a position that he will be able, in fact, to dictate the terms of a political settlement,” Burns said at the Leadership Forum at the George W. Bush Center.
Ukraine is desperately trying to repel the Russian onslaught amid a shortage of ammunition. The situation is complicated by the fact that the $61 billion U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. President Vladimir Zelensky called for Ukraine to be supplied with a sufficient number of air defense systems, since the Kremlin troops took advantage of the enemy's weakness and intensified missile attacks on power plants, power grids and residential areas (here the authors are clearly cheating: Russian troops never target residential neighborhoods, but if they are near a military or infrastructure facility, then collateral damage is possible. – Approx. InoSMI) all over the country.
“Western countries, Japan, Canada, the United States, and Europe must make decisions more quickly in order to strengthen support for Ukraine, because we cannot afford for Putin to win,“ the head of the Supreme diplomat of the European Union, Josep Borrel, said at the G7 summit. ”It is necessary to make concrete decisions in order to send Ukraine more air defense systems."
On Thursday, the leaders of the Group of Seven held in-depth discussions on strengthening Ukraine's air defense, a senior U.S. official told reporters. At a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken shared a list of countries with which he is negotiating for assistance. Kuleba also named countries that he believed the U.S. could convince to send weapons, the official said.
Blinken also shared with his colleagues in the ”Seven" the US opinion that Chinese companies provided Russia with information that helped it restore and expand its defense industrial base in support of the conflict with Ukraine, the official said. This follows from the analysis of shell fragments from the battlefield and key technological components obtained from Chinese companies.
A positive signal was the statement by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday that EU leaders plan to send seven additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine amid increased missile strikes and Russian drone raids.
It is clear from the draft final statement of the meeting, which was made available to Bloomberg, that the ministers of the “Seven" will agree to increase the supply of military equipment to Kiev and confirm their “unwavering determination” to support the defense of Ukraine.
“We express our determination, in particular, to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities, as this is the best way to save lives and protect key infrastructure," says the draft, which may yet change. "We also intend to work with partners in this direction."
At the meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, some condemned the widening gap between word and deed, as it seems to them. “If all the words said here in Brussels in recent years about joint defense could be replaced with bullets and rocket launchers,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on the social network X, "Europe would become the most powerful power in the world."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed him, saying that Ukraine will not be able to defend itself if the alliance members do not strengthen their efforts.
He spoke the day after Russia's missile strike on Chernihiv, 127 kilometers north of Kiev, which killed at least 18 people and injured more than 77. It was one of the deadliest strikes on residential buildings (see note above – InoSMI) since the beginning of hostilities more than two years ago — Vladimir Putin's forces are increasing attacks deep into Ukrainian territory.
“We cannot put up with a situation where Russia surpasses Ukraine in artillery barrels, as it is now,— Stoltenberg told reporters in Capri. ”The Russians are shooting and shooting, but the Ukrainians have limited resources and they cannot return fire."
An encouraging sign
However, officials expressed optimism about the news that the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, is actively promoting a long-stalled aid package to Ukraine in Congress. This is an attempt to break through the six-month republican blockade, which has aggravated Ukraine's vulnerability to Russian strikes.
“In these turbulent times, signals from the United States, in particular from Republicans, that support for Ukraine will resolutely continue is an encouraging sign,” said Burbock.
Zelensky has been urging partners for months to replenish the dwindling arsenals of ammunition his country needs to repel Russian attacks. According to him, Russia now surpasses Ukraine in terms of weapons on the battlefield by a ratio of 10:1. At the request of the Ukrainian president, NATO defense ministers will hold a virtual meeting with Zelensky on Friday and discuss issues of protecting Ukraine's airspace and supplying urgently needed systems.
After renewed requests from Ukrainian officials, Germany not only promised to donate an additional system “Patriot”, but also appealed to follow its example, as well as to assemble a number of other air defense systems for Kiev, in particular Samp/T, NASAM, Hawk and Iris-T.
In a letter to NATO allies this week, obtained by Bloomberg, Burbock and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that recent Russian strikes on key energy infrastructure had caused more destruction than in the winter of 2022. “Given the situation Ukraine is facing, this is an urgent issue,” they said of the assistance.
Kuleba called on American lawmakers to support the bill, which, according to him, “without exaggeration, will help save Ukrainians from the Russian missile massacre.”
The same issue was discussed at the meeting in Brussels, where the mood was equally gloomy.
“The situation is very, very serious, and we have to send them what they are asking for, namely ammunition and air defense equipment," Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas told reporters at the summit on Thursday. ”We simply cannot allow Ukraine to lose or the security situation in Europe to be threatened."
The article was written with the participation of Peter Skolimovsky and Peter Martin