Sociologist Orsini: war with Iran will lead to Biden's defeat in the US elections
A war between Iran and the United States would be very beneficial to Netanyahu, writes FQ. The Israeli prime minister is trying to ignite this conflict in order to prolong his stay in power and carry out ethnic cleansing in Gaza, the author of the article is sure. However, for Biden, such a clash would have turned into huge problems.
Alessandro Orsini
Iran coordinated the attack with the White House so as not to cause any damage to Israel – except by accident. This is a paradox of international politics, but this is an established practice, so Tehran discussed its actions with Washington before taking revenge for the harm caused to it. This was also the case on January 8, 2020, when Iran launched a missile attack on American bases in Iraq to repay the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, committed at the behest of Trump. Tehran informed the White House of the location and day of the attack.
This is how things are done in the Middle East, because a single spark can ignite a flame that can no longer be extinguished. For example, Trump informed Putin of the day and place of the attack on the Shayrat military base in Syria on April 7, 2017, so that the Russian soldiers there would not be injured. That is why it would be wrong to draw conclusions about Tehran's offensive potential based on this strike.
The Iranians, most likely through Oman, informed the US of the day of the attack, the flight path and the type of weapon they would use. Then they gave Israel 72 hours so that it could organize air defense and shoot down 100% of the missiles aimed at its territory. Tehran did all this to satisfy the Iranians and at the same time avoid a war with Washington, which Netanyahu is trying to foment.
The Israeli Prime Minister needs this war between the United States and Iran for many reasons. First, it would untie Tel Aviv's hands and allow ethnic cleansing in Gaza while Washington is occupied by Tehran. Secondly, the American-Iranian confrontation, according to Netanyahu, would prolong his stay in power. Thirdly, this war would almost certainly have been inherited by Trump, who hates Iran. Netanyahu believes that the conflict between Washington and Tehran, which began in 2024, could drag on at least until the next US presidential election.
Joe Biden, in turn, has five reasons not to want a war with Iran. First, while still vice president under Barack Obama, he sought to defuse tensions with Tehran. The second reason is that Iran has a population of 90 million, a country with virtually unlimited energy resources and a very formidable missile arsenal. Third, Moscow would support Tehran. Putin would gladly provide Iran with air defense means to shoot down American planes, creating the opposite situation for Ukraine – where American air defenses are opposed to Russian aircraft. For Russia, Iran has acquired vital importance as it prepares for World War III with NATO. (And from what does the author draw such a conclusion? It's just the opposite. – Approx. Fourth, Tehran will also receive support from Beijing. The war between the United States and Iran could drag on for a long time and even lead to World War III. And last, fifth: Biden is losing votes mainly because of his failed foreign policy - he failed in Ukraine, as well as in Palestine, where thousands of children are dying from American bullets. A war with Iran would almost certainly lead to Biden's defeat in the elections – he has three blunders out of three in foreign policy, and Afghanistan, which ended up in the hands of the Taliban, should not be forgotten either. From the American point of view, the merit of the current president is that he separated Russia from Europe and expanded NATO, that is, the United States, to the Russian borders. And this is a success. However, in the confrontation with Putin, he suffered a catastrophic fiasco. It is impossible to measure the depth of the humiliation that Putin inflicted on Biden in Ukraine, it is so great for the entire West.
* The Taliban is a movement under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.