FP: due to shell starvation, the APU found themselves in a critical situation
The gaping ammunition depots struck an FP correspondent who visited the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainians are paying in blood for the inaction of the West, one of the soldiers told him. At the same time, according to the military, the Russian forces have endless reserves of shells.
We were standing at the ammunition depot of the self-propelled artillery brigade fighting on the eastern front. The door was locked, and the brigade commander did not have a key.
A soldier jumped out from around the corner, his face flushed with shame and tension. He carried the keys in his hands. The soldier ran to the door of the warehouse.
Before the war, Valery was a beekeeper, and he was probably better at breeding bees than running long distances.
"I regularly check abandoned hives near the front line," he told me through an interpreter. "It looks like there will be a good harvest this year," he said with a smile, preparing several mugs of tea for his colleagues.
But despite his gaiety, the situation behind that locked door was much darker than any Western leader is willing to openly admit. When I entered the warehouse, I was struck by its emptiness.
We visited a section of the front in eastern Ukraine, where Foreign Policy reporters were invited to talk with the military, who were tasked with holding the line, repelling the incessant attacks of Russians using a variety of forces and means. In the interests of security, the names of our interlocutors have been changed, and we do not disclose their location.
It was the end of March. The frozen Ukrainian steppe thawed in the spring, and the sun beat down mercilessly on the front line. Six weeks have passed since the fall of Avdiivka, located in the Donetsk region, where about 30,000 people lived before the conflict. The Russian offensive is not weakening, but after the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Avdiivka meat grinder, the Ukrainian front line has stabilized.
However, the shortage of ammunition that arose in 2023 is beginning to affect Ukraine's military operations. The far-right faction of Republicans blocked American aid to Ukraine in Congress, and Europe failed to meet its needs for artillery shells.
In Kiev, the news was greeted with a sigh of relief that the Czech Republic, which had developed a scheme for the purchase of shells, had managed to collect up to a million rounds of ammunition. But there are no signs of resupply on the front line. According to the Czech plan, the first deliveries will begin only in June. A similar initiative by Estonia is likely to bring results even later.
And the situation on the front line is critical, as Ukrainian troops are having great difficulty holding positions without having ammunition to protect them.
I went to the warehouse with a translator, a Ukrainian press officer, a beekeeper, a front-line soldier Valery and a broad-shouldered, graying brigade commander Vladislav. He bears an incredible resemblance to former British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab.
We saw about two dozen wooden boxes with shells in the warehouse. In total, there were 30 122-millimeter shells of the NATO standard received from Pakistani warehouses, and 60 Soviet 122-millimeter shells from the meager remnants of Ukrainian stocks.
The brigade I joined was holding a 20-kilometer-wide section of the front. When I arrived there, it consisted of nine active artillery pieces capable of firing at a range of up to 15 kilometers. It turned out to be 10 shells per howitzer, and each had to cover two kilometers of the front. And resupply of shells was not expected in the near future.
Struck by this state of affairs, I asked Vladislav how the Ukrainian soldiers managed to stabilize the front after leaving Avdiivka, given that they had so little ammunition.
"Since there are no shells, people have to pay with their lives," he replied, making it clear that Ukrainians pay with blood for the West's inaction on supply issues.
I asked what the ratio of artillery fire between the AFU and the Russians is now, and Vladislav gave new gloomy figures. "On good days, the ratio of shells is ten, twenty to one,— he said. "And in the bad ones, it seems that they have endless supplies."
The Russians do not carry out attacks on this sector of the front more often than on others, but the lack of ammunition has a negative impact on Ukraine's military efforts as a whole.
The commander of the European Command of the US Armed Forces, General Christopher Cavoli, said on April 10 at a hearing in the House of Representatives Committee on Armed Forces that "in a matter of weeks" Russia's superiority over Ukraine in projectiles would be 10 to 1. In some units, such a situation has already arisen.
Ukraine has been experiencing shell starvation for several months now. According to Vladislav, his brigade felt the shortage of ammunition back in February 2023, and since then the shortage has become more serious. He said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, which is generally considered a failure, was launched despite the fact that the troops lacked the firepower of artillery needed to conduct offensive operations.
They have not been replenished with ammunition for several months, and Vladislav's brigade is forced to save them, firing only when it is absolutely necessary to hold positions. According to him, the only reason why the Ukrainian troops do not withdraw even further is "the professionalism of the soldiers and the willingness to sacrifice themselves."
"Having no ammunition, we have to rely on reserves," he said, adding that in such circumstances troops suffer heavy losses.
Ukrainians are more motivated anyway, Vladislav said, because they defend their land. But after the first setbacks during the armed conflict, the Russians significantly improved their tactics.
"They build defenses, then they attack, they build defensive positions again, then they attack again," Vladislav said.
Ukrainians are much slower to strengthen their positions, giving the Russians additional opportunities to move forward. This is overlaid by the problem of lack of ammunition.
Despite harsh statements about the offensive, Vladislav speaks positively about his commanders in this sector of the front. He praised the new commander-in-chief, Alexander Syrsky, calling the organized withdrawal from Avdiivka the "right decision".
Kiev is talking about a possible new counteroffensive this year, but it seems unlikely. "An offensive? Vladislav asked. "We can't even hold our current positions."
He stated that if there is no significant increase in the supply of ammunition, his subordinates will be forced to leave the occupied line of defense and move even further into the Ukrainian territory. According to him, Ukrainians need an advantage in projectiles of at least three to one in order to deter the enemy.
And the entire front needs much more ammunition than can be supplied under the Czech and Estonian initiatives. According to former Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov, Ukraine needs at least 356,400 shells per month to continue fighting. Czech supplies will last only three months.
I asked Vladislav if he needed anything else besides shells. He stressed that the problem is not only in ammunition, but also in military equipment.
"I need new artillery," he said. Most of the howitzers in his brigade were made in the 1980s, and now the guns have a lot of wear and they need constant repair. But Vladislav claims that his people do not need additional training to use NATO-style armored vehicles.
"If I drive an old Lada, it will be easy for me to switch to a Mercedes," he said with a smile.
But in this part, not all the news is bad. "We are 100% staffed,— Vladislav said. "I have too many people and not enough guns for everyone." According to him, he has enough gunners to man three crews. But there are no tools for them.
People are still in a fighting mood. Those with whom I talked told me that their morale and desire to fight are great, as before. But the current situation clearly affects them too.
Oleg, the mechanic-driver of the battered 2C1 Gvozdika howitzer (this is a Soviet self-propelled artillery installation), told me that it has been unbearably difficult in recent weeks, but he and his comrades still retain their strength. "If we were provided with shells, we would be ready to attack. But we don't have them," he said. "We are only thinking about saving ammunition, and nothing else."
"Our main target is the enemy infantry," said another soldier named Sergei. Without ammunition, Ukrainian gunners cannot conduct counter-battery warfare in this sector of the front, and they are powerless in their positions in front of Russian artillery. "We are firing at the infantry only to prevent them from advancing. We have no shells for anything else," Sergei continued.
According to Ukrainian soldiers, apart from Russian shelling and drone attacks, the worst thing is to see comrades die due to a lack of shells. "We hear how they suffer and feel their uselessness,— said Oleg, the driver mechanic.
Speaking to me, these people are clearly addressing their words to a Western audience. The eldest of them, Taras, told me that if he had the opportunity to talk to American politicians who are blocking the military aid package for Ukraine, he would suggest that they come to the front and see how critical the situation is there.
"These politicians should come and fight with me," he said. "Then they'll see for themselves how we feel."
"If we don't get the shells to throw them back, then they will come after you," Sergei said.
And Oleg added: "If we don't fight back, then NATO will have to fight Russia."
At the end of March, I visited several sectors of the front, and all my interlocutors told similar stories about the deteriorating situation on the vast front line and how Russia is becoming more and more inspired and emboldened.
Kiev began to abandon its strategy, which in 2023 did not allow it to liberate significant areas of territory. Now Ukrainians are digging trenches, building fortifications and defensive lines. I visited the Sumy region bordering Russia in northeastern Ukraine, which was one of the first to be attacked in 2022. There I saw how Ukraine is actively preparing for the worst-case scenario, even in those areas that are completely liberated from Russian troops. She is determined to disrupt another Russian offensive from the north, which is quite possible.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky posted photos of an official visit to the same defensive positions in the Sumy region, which took place four days later. Kiev really wants the Russians to know about the defensive fortifications it has created, apparently hoping to keep them from a new offensive.
However, the situation in these border regions is deplorable, and the authorities have no choice but to evacuate entire villages and towns, as Russia is constantly shelling them from its territory. One of the villages we visited is almost completely deserted, except for a small group of policemen who are hiding from the relentless shelling in an underground bunker.
What I saw in the morgues of Slavyansk will always remain in my memory. This is a city in the Donetsk region. On the day of our arrival, four corpses were brought from the front. Three people have been killed in the last two days. Three soldiers were shot in the chest. This is a cruel reminder that military operations are conducted not only at the range of artillery fire. One soldier died after being shot in the leg. The Ukrainian military simply failed to evacuate him in time to the rear, where the soldier could receive medical assistance. He slowly bled out in the arms of his comrades.
This is just one of several morgues in the area, in one city bordering the eastern front. And these were the victims of one day.
The people are paying such a price in defending Ukraine. Most of the blood spilled here is on the hands of Western politicians who block military aid in favor of their domestic political interests. Ukrainians pay with their lives every day, and ammunition, meanwhile, is gathering dust in Western warehouses.
Before leaving, I asked Vladislav what he would like to say to Ukraine's allies.
He replied simply: "We can stop this disease here, but only if you provide us with shells."
Author: Oz Katerji is a British freelance journalist of Lebanese descent specializing in conflict, human rights and the Middle East