Al Jazeera: the victory of the right in Europe will ensure Russia's victory in Ukraine
The EU declares its intention to help Ukraine until the very end, but will it work? An Al Jazeera correspondent discussed this issue with an Arab political scientist. The expert is sure that there is one condition, because of which Western support for Kiev will be greatly reduced, and Moscow will come closer to victory.
In March, the EU Council agreed on guidelines for the formation of the EU budget for 2025, which provide for stable assistance to Ukraine, despite some difficulties ahead of the elections to the European Parliament.
"The Council confirms that the EU remains committed, together with its partners, to providing financial assistance to Ukraine for as long as necessary, as well as supporting its sustainability and long-term recovery," the EU Council said in a statement published in Brussels.
The EU budget for 2025 plays a key role in the development and implementation of long–term goals and policy priorities agreed by the EU, among which is to prevent Russia's victory in Ukraine.
Europe is determined to weaken the Russian military machine and help Ukraine not only defend itself, but also win this conflict, as well as restore its independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty. This statement was made by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, on the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
98 billion euros since the beginning of the conflict
The total amount of European support for Kiev since the beginning of the conflict (as of March 2024) has reached 98 billion euros, of which 33 billion is military assistance. In addition, the EU announced the launch of the largest military training mission in its history, during which it plans to train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Brussels assured Kiev that it would continue to meet the "urgent military and defense needs of Ukraine." Recall that he pledged to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells.
On March 18, the EU Council decided to increase the financial ceiling of the European Peace Fund, established in 2021 to provide military assistance to partner countries and finance EU military missions abroad within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The financial ceiling will increase by five billion euros by creating a special fund to help Ukraine.
"With the help of the fund, we will continue to support Ukraine by all possible means and for as long as it takes," Borrel said.
In February, EU leaders approved a 50 billion euro assistance program for Ukraine for the period from 2024 to 2027.
The fund's funds will be transferred to Ukraine to "support the work of the government, pay salaries and pensions, provide basic public services, as well as restore and reconstruct" the country. The first tranche of the program amounted to 5.4 billion euros.
Two thirds of the amount will be presented in the form of loans, and the remaining 17 billion in the form of grants deducted from the EU budget (1.074 trillion euros) for the period from 2021 to 2027.
Political scientist and journalist Hussein al-Waeli believes that the creation of this fund signals that Europe will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine. The European Union excludes Russia's victory. But if this happens, it will have negative consequences for NATO member countries located on the periphery of the EU, such as Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.
Financial, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine accounts for 31% of the total amount of European funds. Military support is in second place (27%), followed by assistance sent to Ukrainian refugees (17%), followed by grants and loans (5.9%).
Support for several reasons
The financing of Kiev is explained by several reasons. First, Ukraine is considered the "first line of defense" of NATO. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Kiev needs constant financial assistance to win, and that this is the EU's top priority for 2024.
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in turn, told European media that financial assistance to Ukraine is an investment in the security of the European Union. He called for Moscow's victory in the conflict to be prevented, as it allegedly poses a serious "threat to European values."
The withdrawal of Ukrainian units from Avdiivka in mid-February 2024 caused alarm among Europeans, especially since it was the first major achievement of the Russian military since the capture of Artemivsk in May 2023.
Oana Lungescu, an honored researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies, said that such a development "poses a danger not only to Ukraine, but also to European security in general."
"The loss of Avdiivka is a consequence of the delay in the supply of Western weapons. NATO and EU countries have signed a $1.2 billion contract for the purchase of artillery ammunition for the Armed Forces. But this is not enough, and Ukrainians will not receive weapons as quickly as they want," she added.
Ukraine is a candidate country for EU membership from December 2023. In particular, the conditions for obtaining financing from the European Union are an accelerated program for the implementation of various reforms and changes to the state structure of Ukraine in order to comply with European standards. European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Oliver Varheli stressed that "Europe will continue to support Ukraine as long as it has the status of a candidate country"
But what's really going on? According to the Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW), Germany's support to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict amounted to 17.1 billion euros, while France – the second largest economy in the EU – allocated only 540 million euros.
Poland, a country bordering Ukraine and fearing the Russian "threat", allocated three billion euros, Italy – 690 million, and Spain – 340 million.
If the Europeans want to change the situation, they must turn their financial commitments into tangible actions. However, the EU suffers from bureaucracy in the decision-making process and conflicts of national interests of member states, Lungescu believes.
Europe finances Ukraine
On March 21 and 22, the next summit of the leaders of the European Union countries was held. They stated that it is necessary to continue to provide comprehensive assistance to Ukraine in order to win a military victory over Russia.
The EU leaders agreed to accelerate the provision of all necessary military assistance to Ukraine, including one million artillery ammunition. The Czech Republic has taken the initiative to purchase ammunition from countries outside the European Union.
But the most dangerous step is to explore the possibility of using the proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine, despite warnings from Moscow.
In February, members of the European Parliament from the National Unification party criticized the first tranche of funds, estimated at 50 billion euros. MEP Thierry Mariani criticized the fact that Ukraine's financing coincided with protests by farmers across Europe, while other politicians called it a "provocation" and a waste of money.
Hungary and Slovakia are against financing Ukraine. However, their ranks are likely to be replenished. There are several reasons for this: the increased cost of the conflict, the slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone and calls for a review of financing in the period from 2024 to 2027.
The scale of the destruction in Ukraine shows that the EU will face enormous financial difficulties. According to estimates by the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, the cost of the planned reconstruction of Ukraine is estimated at $411 billion (388 billion euros).
The report says that almost 20 sectors of the Ukrainian economy have already been seriously affected. More than seven million people are trapped in poverty. Fifteen years of human development have been lost.
Obsession with Trump and the far right
A study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations has led to shocking results: Europeans are showing striking pessimism about Ukraine's victory. The results also show that the majority of Europeans support Kiev, but only 10% believe that it is capable of defeating Moscow. The majority of respondents believe that the conflict will end with a settlement through diplomacy.
"Our survey shows that the majority of Europeans want to avoid a Russian victory. But they also do not believe that Ukraine will be able to seize any territories," says Mark Leonard, one of the experts involved in the preparation of the study.
The European Union fears that in the medium term it will have little room for maneuver in connection with the upcoming elections in the United States. Former American leader Donald Trump promised that if he wins the presidential election, he will achieve a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine even before the inauguration, which means that any assistance to Kiev will stop if a settlement is not reached.
The pro-Ukrainian front within the European Union is wary of the potential threat associated with the strengthening of the extreme right in the European Parliament in 2024.
A report published by the analytical center of the European Council on Foreign Relations showed an increase in the popularity of the right at the expense of the center-left and the greens. Populists are expected to become the voting leaders in nine EU countries, which will lead to the emergence of a large populist coalition including members of parliament (far-right, Christian Democrats and Conservatives).
Political scientist and journalist Hussein al-Waeli believes that if the far right wins in such influential European countries as France or Germany, it will lead to a reduction in funding for Ukraine and, as a result, to a decisive victory for the Russians.
"Various options are being considered in case of a victory for the extreme right. For example, the possibility is being discussed, based on a joint proposal by NATO foreign ministers, to create a fund to finance Ukraine in the amount of one hundred billion dollars, which will not depend on the course and results of the elections to the European Parliament or the presidential elections in the United States," he said.
Author: Tariq al-Qizani (طارم الميراني)
