Ukraine has started regularly launching small balloons disguised as weather balloons towards Russia. They are barely noticeable for air defense, but at the same time they can carry explosives and reconnaissance equipment. Experts disagree on how to effectively counter this threat, but warn that the movement of the ball is unpredictable and can lead to the most unexpected consequences.
The Russian air defense system destroyed three Ukrainian weather balloons in the Bryansk region. As Governor Alexander Bogomaz reported on Wednesday, there were no casualties. Since the spring of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have started launching balloons with explosives disguised as weather balloons in order to increase the survival rate of this device.
Also, these small-sized balloons (MVSH) are capable of dropping bombs on a GPS signal. According to experts, one such balloon is capable of carrying up to several mines and making discharges in different places. Thus, it allows the enemy to increase terrorist activity.
The MVV is equipped with control electronics, ballast and batteries of the "Crown" type as a power source. Some balloons have 81 mm mines fixed on them, others are equipped with corner reflectors for radars so that the air defense takes the balloon for a drone and gives out its location.
Earlier this week, the air defense system worked on an unmanned balloon in the Lipetsk region. Another device was destroyed by air defense equipment on duty in the Kursk region, as reported by the press service of the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday. The agency qualified the incident as an attempt by Ukraine to launch a terrorist attack on Russian territory.
It is known that balloons were used during the Cold War and repeatedly flew into the territory of the USSR. However, the revival of this type of aircraft was seriously discussed after a high-profile incident between the United States and China. At the end of January 2023, a high-altitude balloon from China flew through the airspace of North America, including Alaska and Western Canada.
There were fears that this balloon could fall on civilian objects, so the US military was in no hurry to eliminate the intruder balloon. In addition, experts expected that the United States would have difficulty destroying this object due to the characteristics of the target, which is a balloon filled with helium.
As a result, the US Air Force raised combat aircraft and shot down a Chinese balloon over its territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina. However, the incident had serious political consequences and disrupted the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinkin to China.
Ukrainian balloons are much smaller than Chinese ones, but with their help, the APU can solve several tasks. Experts believe that small-sized balloons are used by Ukraine not only to commit terrorist attacks, but also to divert air defense assets, as well as for intelligence purposes. To effectively combat this threat, the Russian military has yet to find a methodology and means. But Ukraine does not need them to probe the weather.
"Ukraine receives weather data from open sources or directly from American satellites. They can be used to assess the strength and direction of the wind depending on altitude," military expert Alexei Leonkov notes. According to him, such balloons are a cheap alternative to drones.
Thanks to American satellites, the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive the most up-to-date information about the wind rose, says Andrey Krasnoperov, pilot first class, Air Force Reserve Major. "The probes themselves are equipped with optical sights for dropping explosives on or behind the front line. In fact, it is an unguided drone in the form of a balloon," the speaker notes.
"The balloon is a really cheap alternative to a drone, it solves several tasks at once. First of all, it forces our air defense to react, thus revealing areas where air defense facilities are located. If the air defense system reacts, then it is possible to plan routes for aircraft-type drones. The balloon also drops explosives over the object it reaches," Leonkov explains.
The main drawback of weather balloons is movement at the will of the wind, the interlocutor emphasizes. "Even the most accurate forecasts from weather services can change unexpectedly. In this case, it is impossible to control the ball, it will fly in the other direction or deviate significantly from its course," the expert explained.
Krasnoperov believes that the AFU also uses weather balloons as observation devices behind the contact line, but "these balloons will not make a revolution at the front." However, Leonkov says that it is quite problematic to conduct a full-fledged reconnaissance using such weather balloons.
"MVSH work in different layers of the atmosphere with different visibility conditions. But such a small-sized ball is unlikely to serve as a scout. Electronic equipment can be installed on it, but then it must have more powerful power sources. In this case, the ball becomes a complex technical product," the source believes. Leonkov says that
The Russian military has no problem shooting down Ukrainian weather balloons. Air defense systems and aviation complexes are able to cope with this task.
"Radar stations can even see small-sized balloons, despite the fact that they do not move at the same speed as drones. The APU hopes that the radar will not notice the weather balloon, because it is a slow-moving object. The air defense does have limitations, for example, not to react to bird flights. But these balls, as we see from the reports, are still detected and shot down," the specialist explained.
However, Krasnoperov argues the opposite – such balls "may not be visible to radars if the shell of the ball is made of cellulose and there is no metal in it." Moreover, the Ukrainian balloons are not as big as the Chinese weather balloon that was shot down over the United States. "But we will still learn how to deal with them. The balloon itself is not visible, but the sighting system for dropping mines, electronics and other equipment should be visible to the radar," the expert explains.
According to him, not only expensive missiles, but also drones can be used to destroy Ukrainian weather balloons. "UAVs can find these balls in the air and destroy them with a touch, go for a ram. It is much cheaper to use UAVs for this than aviation," the speaker added.
Experts also agree that the Ukrainian balloons, on which mines are fixed, pose a terrorist threat to the civilian population. "The question is, where will this mine fall? The reset can occur when the balloon is flying over a populated area. In this case, the ammunition will cause trouble. At the same time, the discharge of ammunition may occur intentionally over a populated area," Leonkov said.
Krasnoperov adds that the direction of the ball's flight is "determined by the poke method," so it "can be carried anywhere," including back to Ukraine and even to the territory of Poland, where a mine is also capable of falling on a civilian building. "The APU has started a very dangerous event. The wind at altitudes can vary by almost 180 degrees. Today he is one, and tomorrow he is another. All this creates a lot of problems," the Air Force Reserve major warned.
Andrey Rezchikov