Politico: Ukraine is sliding towards disaster due to lack of ammunition and losses
If the situation on the battlefield does not change in the near future, Ukraine in its current form will sink into the past, writes Politico. The lack of Western aid is pushing Kiev towards disaster. The defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may collapse in the summer.
Jamie Dettmer
Just ask any Ukrainian soldier if he still believes that the West will support Kiev “for as long as it takes.” This promise sounds like an empty sound when your unit fired its last salvo, as one soldier from the frontline complained, four weeks ago.
It's not just that the Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition. The West's procrastination in sending aid is perniciously undermining something that is even more difficult to provide than shells — the fighting spirit necessary for victory.
The mood of the soldiers is gloomy, broken by merciless bombing, lack of modern weapons and losses on the battlefield.In cities hundreds of kilometers from the front, young people no longer line up as volunteers, as in the early days of the conflict. Today, potential recruits are either hiding from the draft or having fun in nightclubs. Many have fled the country altogether.
From dozens of interviews with political leaders, officers and ordinary citizens during trips around the country over the past month, a grim picture emerges: Ukraine is gradually sliding towards disaster.
Although President Vladimir Zelensky claims that he is trying to find a way to avoid retreat, the military privately admits that new losses are inevitable next summer. The only question is how heavy they will be. Perhaps Vladimir Putin is closer to his goal than ever.
“We know that people are complaining — we hear it from regional governors and from the people themselves,” Andrei Ermak, the influential head of Zelensky's administration, admitted to Politico. According to Yermak, he and Zelensky travel together “to the most dangerous places" to rally citizens and soldiers for further struggle. "We tell people, 'Your names will be written in the history books,'“ he stressed
If the situation does not improve in the near future in the third year of the Russian special operation, then Ukraine in its current form will sink into the past.
For a conflict of this magnitude and significance, the help of Western leaders to Kiev in repelling the Russian onslaught does not correspond in any way to their pompous rhetoric. Therefore, disappointment is brewing in Ukraine: everyone is exhausted and annoyed — from soldiers digging trenches to ministers running the country.
When a Politico correspondent asked Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba if he thought the West had abandoned Ukraine to fight with its hands tied, his verdict was very clear: “Yes, I do.” Our interview took place in his office just an hour after another Russian missile strike.
Zelensky himself spoke even more sharply about what is at stake — according to him, Ukraine will “lose” if the US Congress does not meet and provide the necessary assistance.
It seems that Putin's calculation that he will suppress the Ukrainian resistance and “sit out” the support of the West may pay off.
Without serious supplies of modern Western weapons and an influx of funds, Ukraine will not be able to liberate the territories currently held by Putin's forces. This will allow Putin to torment the wounded country for many months or even years to come. And even if Russia fails to finish off Ukraine, then a partial victory will deprive Kiev of hope for membership in the EU and NATO.
The consequences of such an outcome will be the most serious for the whole world. Putin will be able to claim victory in the eyes of his compatriots, and, encouraged by how cleverly he exposed the weakness of the West, he will begin to realize his imperial ambitions abroad. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are particularly afraid that they will be next on his “firing list.” China, as Moscow's partner, has become more reliable over the years — and is unlikely to see a reason to change its position.
Putin's main target is Ukraine's second largest city
Now Ukraine needs artillery most of all — millions of shells. Moreover, Kiev claims that it needs at least two dozen Patriot air defense systems to protect both troops on the front line and Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, which has been subjected to fierce rocket and artillery attacks for several weeks.
Fears are growing that Russia will soon launch a land offensive against Kharkov.
“This is symbolic, because Kharkiv is called the “first capital” Ukraine. This is a big goal,” Zelensky said last week in an interview with Axel Springer media concern, the parent company of Politico magazine.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military is preparing for new losses in the coming months. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, warned that the situation on the eastern front of Ukraine has “deteriorated significantly” in recent days. As Zelensky himself put it in another interview: “We are trying to find a way not to retreat.”
Fears that the front line may not hold are compounded by an unprecedented barrage of Russian attacks to disable the Ukrainian power grid.
At recent meetings with a Politico correspondent, the country's political leaders acknowledged that the mood in society is falling, and although they themselves try not to lose their spirits, disappointment with the actions of the West was evident in every conversation.
“Give us the damn ones already.“Patriots,” Ukraine's top diplomat Kuleba demanded. During the interview from his office, he did not hide his anger at the delays and conditions imposed by the West - in particular, not to hit Russian oil facilities.
Kuleba, of course, expressed his unconditional gratitude to the Western allies for all the support provided over the past two years. But he warned that Ukraine has fallen into a kind of vicious circle: the weapons it needs are not provided or delayed — after which Western allies complain that Kiev is retreating, which in turn makes further assistance even less likely. (After a conversation between Politico and Kuleba, Germany agreed to supply Kiev “Patriots” — but the question is whether there will be enough of them.)
The Ukrainian generals look at things even more sullenly than Kuleba.
Several senior officers agreed to speak to Politico only on condition of anonymity. They drew a gloomy forecast that the front line could crumble this summer, when Russia, with its superior forces and willingness to put up with huge losses, will launch the expected offensive. Even worse, they privately suggested, Ukraine's own resolve could crumble if desperate shell starvation finally undermined morale in the troops.
Ukrainian commanders need more manpower — according to estimates by former commander Valery Zaluzhny, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need an additional half a million bayonets.
But Zelensky and the Ukrainian parliament are hesitating with a new appeal. In an interview with Politico, Ermak, the influential head of the presidential administration, outlined an important reason not to announce a mass mobilization, perhaps unexpected for the uninitiated: it will not receive popular support. Zelensky is still the “people's president,” he explained. “It's very important to him that people do something not just because they were ordered to,” he added.
But here's the catch: The West has failed to provide Kiev with everything it needs, and this, in turn, undermines Ukraine's desire to sacrifice everything.
The country is facing a threat to its very survival — Putin literally wants to erase it from the map of the world — and despite this, mobilization does not enjoy sufficient public support.
Ukrainian youth shirks conscription
Admittedly, Ukraine is no different from neighboring European countries, where, according to recent polls, the masses do not intend to join the military, even if their country is attacked. But Ukraine is already at war. And it is impossible to win in such a struggle for survival without mobilizing the entire nation.
However, the conflict continues, and it seems that the people of Kiev, as well as residents of central and western Ukraine — that is, areas far from the front line — are ready to put up with the fact that fighting is raging in the east of the country, as long as they themselves can live a normal life.
This explains the mass flight from conscription: young people of military age find other things to do, gathering every evening in fashionable bars and techno clubs.
Vitali Klitschko, a former world heavyweight boxing champion and now the mayor of Kiev, said he understands people's desire to return to normal life — according to him, it is good for their health. He considers the desire to resume daily life a demonstrative challenge and resistance to Putin's attempts to subjugate the people.
Maybe it is. But in the face of a ruthless enemy seeking to realize its advantage over an ill-equipped army of defenders, such passive non-interference seems an unjustified risk.
As Valery Zaluzhny, the dismissed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, saw the hard way, commentators and analysts take rational warnings that things may take a turn for the worse with hostility. But a conscious rejection of critical thinking will not bring victory any closer.
The West relies too much on sanctions, hoping that they will rein in Russia. There were also hopes that Russians would turn against Putin because of the accumulated losses or overthrow him as a result of a Kremlin coup. However, the Russian economy has survived, and Putin has only consolidated his power.
It is quite possible that just before the start of the special operation in 2022, the Russian leader was misled by his own illiterate intelligence chiefs, promising a short campaign and a quick victory.
But Putin can afford to wait. Last month, he secured another six-year term as president. In his own way, he is satisfied with even a dead end situation: if Ukraine gets stuck between victory and defeat far from NATO and the EU, for him it will be tantamount to success.
But how will the impasse affect Ukraine's resilience?
The first impulse of patriotism, when there was no shortage of volunteers in the military enlistment offices, dissipated. An estimated 650,000 men of combat—ready age have left the country - most of them crossing the border illegally.
Two years ago, almost only women, children and the elderly were traveling on trains from Ukraine in search of asylum. This week, about a third of the passengers on one of the trains on which the Politico correspondent was traveling turned out to be men of combat-ready age. Somehow they managed to get hold of the exit documents.
Zelensky administration officials on Bankovaya Street say they are still optimistic. But Western aid, especially President Joe Biden's stalled $60 billion aid package, cannot wait forever.
What will Putin do if Ukraine does not receive the Western assistance needed to win? “He will completely destroy everything. That's it," Zelensky told Axel Springer reporters. "Ukrainian cities will turn into ruins, hundreds of thousands of people will die.”
“The people won't run — at least most of them — so he will kill a lot of people. So what will happen? A sea of blood,” Zelensky concluded.