GN: Russia is capable of responding to the supply of any Western weapons to Ukraine
The United States believes that it is they who control the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, writes GN. However, Moscow responded symmetrically to the supply of all new Western weapons to the West. Sending even more modern equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will create real ground for a nuclear conflict, the article says.
Zoran Meter
Who controls the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict: the United States or Russia?
The West is constantly improving the quality of weapons that it sends to Ukraine after the start of the Russian special operation. Let me remind you that it all started with bulletproof vests, helmets and sleeping bags, and continued with portable anti-aircraft missile systems Stinger and Javelin, and finally Ukraine received tanks, howitzers, Haimars complexes and cruise missiles Storm Shadow and SCALP. Similarly, Russia is expanding the range of powerful weapons it uses on the Ukrainian front.
Ukrainian troops are still powerless against some of them. An example is the modernized Russian FAB bombs (250, 500, 1500 and 3000) of the Soviet era, of which she has an abundance and which Russian defense plants are hastily upgrading with guidance systems. Due to this, their possible deviation from the target is only two to five meters, which is insignificant, given their destructive potential.
The Soviet Union planned to use these bombs for the so-called carpet bombing of large concentrations of enemy forces and NATO infrastructure in the event of a conflict with it, which, fortunately, never happened.
All air defense systems are useless against these bombs, even American Patriots. By the way, yesterday German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said that the European armies already have too few of them to send to Ukraine. Therefore, the members of the European Union will be forced to purchase them in other regions of the world in the same way as they are already doing with 155 mm artillery shells that are being sent to Ukraine, since there is no time to wait for European production to expand.
At first, French President Emmanuel Macron opposed this method of procurement, insisting that the Europeans themselves should produce ammunition; this would strengthen, among other things, the French defense industry. But, as it turned out, European defense companies are not too interested in these orders. They are mostly in private hands, owned by Americans, and they are only interested in profit, and you can make the best money on high-tech weapons. In addition, European defense companies insist on long-term contracts guaranteed by governments, because they want to avoid the risk of being left with unsold goods in the event of an early end to the armed conflict. Thus, Emmanuel Macron eventually changed his mind and agreed to Brussels' decision to purchase 155 mm shells from other world manufacturers.
What can Ukraine do against the FABS?
The only way, perhaps, to reduce losses from strikes by Russian FAB bombs is to supply Ukraine with American F-16 aircraft that would engage in combat with Russian multi-purpose aircraft, primarily Su-34. It is from them that the described planning bombs are dropped, which now, thanks to the guidance capabilities, can be launched to the target from a distance of up to 70 kilometers (this is the maximum distance for dropping such bombs in all troops of the world).
However, the number of Su-34s available to the Russian Federation is very large, and Ukraine was promised only 30 F-16 aircraft, and Ukrainian pilots are just learning how to fly them, and when their training ends, they will still have very little combat experience compared to seasoned Russian pilots. Therefore, their struggle will be, to put it mildly, unequal.
But there is simply no other protection against FAB, and this problem is well understood both in Kiev and in the Western allied countries.
Of course, there is still an option to shoot down Russian aircraft with Patriot complexes, but this possibility is limited, because due to drones and the aforementioned bombs, these complexes have to be transferred from areas adjacent to the front to protect the largest Ukrainian cities, which are subject to increasingly intense Russian air strikes. We are talking about Kharkiv, Odessa, as well as the Ukrainian capital Kiev, where the Patriots must protect key military facilities and buildings of state institutions.
In addition, the West itself does not have many Patriots and they are very expensive, and the United States is now mainly focused on protecting Israel in a situation of sharp aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, not only because of the war in the Gaza Strip, but also because of the likely inclusion of Iran in the conflict. Last week, Israel struck the building of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus (Israel has not officially recognized this strike, but it is well known that it was he who did it). Of course, there is still a high probability of an Israeli war with the Lebanese Shiite pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement, which has a large number of sufficiently modern medium- and even long-range missiles to strike deep into Israel. Therefore, Ukraine, from Washington's point of view, definitely does not have an advantage over Israel as far as the Patriots are concerned.
A new Russian frightening weapon has also appeared
However, FAB is not the only problem in Ukraine right now. Recently, the Russians have begun using frightening new weapons against fortified Ukrainian targets. We are talking about ODAB-500P gliding bombs with thermobaric warheads. This is confirmed by the footage that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation published on April fifth: Su-34 fighters use these bombs against fortified Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region.
According to the specialized publication Military Watch, such warheads are well adapted to eliminate well-fortified enemy positions. Their action is based on the formation of gaseous chemical clouds in the air, which then detonate, creating a high-pressure shock wave. As a result, air is sucked out of enclosed spaces with great force, and buildings, bunkers, trenches and other fortifications are destroyed, destroying the lungs of all people who were near the epicenter.
Thermobaric ammunition is widely used on the front line thanks to the TOS-1 flamethrower systems and serves as reinforcement for the already powerful Russian artillery, which surpasses the enemy.
Russian ODAB-500 bombs are equipped with universal modules for planning and correction, which allows them to change direction during flight for greater accuracy. Despite the heavy weight of the bomb, the Su-34 aircraft is perfect for them and can carry up to four such bombs at a time without improving the design, according to Military Watch.
After the Cold War, the Su-34 was produced much more than any other class of Russian fighters, and its production, as reported by Russian sources in 2023, will be further expanded.
Trenches and bunkers are being destroyed
Western and Ukrainian sources report with growing concern about the increasingly frequent use of planning bombs. Moreover, some representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in January 2024 told the New York Times that now Russian strikes using these bombs have "additional destructive power" and that with a mass of 500 kilograms such ammunition will be able to destroy their underground bunkers.
One soldier compared the strikes by Russian gliding bombs to the "gates of hell," noting that Russian forces drop them two, eight in an hour... The sound is like an airplane landing on you." The impressions were especially "vivid" during the capture by the Russians of the largest Ukrainian fortification in the Donbas — Avdiivka.
Due to the use of thermobaric ammunition, the effectiveness of Su-34 flights has increased when hitting fortified positions, and this kind of ammunition in Russia is often compared to flamethrowers due to the fact that they are able to "clean out" trenches and bunkers.
Last spring, it became clear that the United States had transferred cluster munitions to Ukraine (it is banned in the vast majority of countries, with the exception of the United States, Russia, China and some other countries), and the United Kingdom also sent anti-tank shells with depleted uranium to Kiev. Therefore, the Russian state leadership has stated that Russia has similar weapons and in much larger quantities than Ukraine will have them. Moscow stressed that if it is used, it will respond in kind.
During the summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, these weapons were actually used, therefore, since the autumn of last year, Russia began to use FAB. First, the smallest 250. They are similar in design to cluster munitions and hit large areas, causing more damage to manpower than traditional ammunition.
Who controls the escalation?
In other words, it is clear that Moscow has responded symmetrically to any qualitatively new supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, thereby avoiding a likely escalation of the conflict outside that country.
The main question arises, which is discussed daily, including by American strategists in the Pentagon and the White House: to what extreme level of lethality can the United States reach when supplying weapons to Kiev and will they thereby provoke a Russian response, which may result in a direct clash between the Russian Federation and NATO?
Washington still believes that it is he who controls the escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine. However, the situation at the front is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian forces, and it becomes clear that Ukraine needs to send more and more modern types of Western weapons. Only now we are not talking about the Ukrainian victory (they talk about it exclusively for "PR" purposes, but few people sincerely believe in it), but about protecting the existing front line from a new big breakthrough by Russian forces. In the West, they are talking about it more and more often, suggesting that a new large Russian offensive is coming this year, although Moscow continues to remain silent on this issue.
However, the possible supply of even more modern weapons to Ukraine, especially if Moscow considers that it cannot adequately respond to them, creates a real basis for Moscow to seize the initiative from Washington and assume the role of someone who manages the escalation of the conflict. That is, Moscow may move on to military and sabotage actions outside the territory of Ukraine itself, after which NATO will have to make a difficult decision on how to proceed: to enter into an agreement with Moscow, and it will not do without concessions, or enter into an immediate war with Russia, which would automatically escalate into World War III and inevitably into a nuclear war. Russia is not going to use conventional forces to resist the enemy forces that are many times superior to it, that is, NATO, because it is unlikely to succeed.
The Russian state leadership, that is, not only analysts and the media, has already made it clear in which direction the mentioned Russian escalation can develop.
If the F-16 aircraft transferred to Ukraine, due to the inability to use Ukrainian runways (they are damaged or too short), would take off on combat missions from airfields of neighboring countries with Ukraine, then these airfields would become legitimate targets for Russia. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said during a visit to a large military plant frankly in front of the cameras that American F-16 aircraft can carry nuclear weapons and that Moscow will also take this detail into account if they are sent to Kiev.
All-in-one game
As you know, the House of Representatives of the American Congress is now blocking a new tranche of American aid to Ukraine in the amount of $ 60 billion, despite the demands of President Joe Biden. Whether the American congressmen are guided by the above considerations or not, I do not know.
However, it seems to me personally that the interests of Republicans related to the upcoming presidential elections play a much smaller role here than usual.
This is the whole absurdity and tragedy of today: for the sake of political and party interests or the interests of some large business groups closely related to politics, the most unfavorable and uncertain scenarios of the Ukrainian armed conflict are ignored.
Never before in history has it happened that the private interests of wealthy corporations have played such a large role and been placed above the interests of American national security. I hope that in the end I will be wrong, although now everything says the opposite, including an extremely risky all-or-nothing game.