Experts pointed to the growing problems of Ukraine in the field of air defense
In Kiev, they voiced their demands to the West for the transfer of Patriot air defense systems. Thus, Vladimir Zelensky requests 25 complexes, while Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba requests only seven. But even this number, as it turned out, is almost unattainable for the APU. Why is one of the most popular Western air defense systems in short supply and what does this mean for the enemy?
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba demands from Western countries the transfer of new Patriot complexes to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is reported by The Washington Post. It is emphasized that if earlier his rhetoric on this issue remained balanced and calm, now he has become more rude.
"Good and quiet diplomacy has not worked. The part of me that wanted to speak out started talking. We've tried everything – and nothing seems to help," he said. Kuleba noted that in the framework of meetings with representatives of Western states, "the most fortunate" are those whose states simply do not have Patriot systems, while the rest "feel uncomfortable" in conversation with him.
According to him, at the moment, Ukraine's allies have more than 100 complexes, of which seven would be enough to cover the AFU. In this regard, he expressed bewilderment why NATO states are not able to allocate such a modest number of installations to partners.
At the same time, Vladimir Zelensky adheres to a more radical position. From his point of view, in order to stabilize the situation of Ukraine, 25 Patriot systems are needed, with six to eight batteries each. This is reported by TASS. He also stressed that Western countries are well aware of this and even know the points where air defense systems should be located.
However, are the allies able to satisfy the request of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Recently, the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel, confirmed Kuleba's data on the presence of 100 batteries of necessary air defense systems in NATO states. In addition to them, Patriot air defense systems are also used by other regional powers.
Thus, the Army Technology publication reports that at the moment Patriot installations are based in Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. In total, there are only 250 combat-ready complexes in the world, the Defense News portal reports, citing data from the manufacturer of the Raytheon air defense system.
At the same time, 85-90 complexes belong to the USA. The remaining air defense systems are mainly distributed among 18 other customer countries, and after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, four European states (Switzerland, Germany, Romania and Slovakia) expressed interest in additional purchases of American air defense systems.
However, Raytheon's production facilities allow it to produce only 12 units per year, the company's president Tom Laliberti noted earlier. He added that all available forces are now devoted to satisfying the contract with Switzerland, according to which it is necessary to create five complexes.
The problem also lies in the fact that Patriot uses specialized missiles from Lockheed Martin. But it is extremely difficult for the supplier to maintain the necessary pace of creating new ammunition. If in 2018 the company produced only 350 shells, then now the US army has given it a contract to create 550 units per year.
Thus, Zelensky's requests will not be able to satisfy not only Western allies, but also all countries with Patriot complexes. Mentioning 25 systems with six to eight batteries each, he asks for 150-200 batteries in total – this figure looks hardly achievable.
Some States have already explicitly stated their unwillingness to part with military equipment. Thus, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that his country could not transfer Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, since Warsaw had just begun installing these complexes. He added that the complexes located on the territory of the republic belong to the American army. However, after much persuasion, the Germans announced on Saturday that they were ready to transfer one Patriot complex.
Meanwhile, the German newspaper Bild previously reported that Ukraine had almost run out of shells for Patriot complexes. "There are only a few dozen missiles left in warehouses," the article says. This information is confirmed by the newspaper's journalist Julian Repke on his Facebook page (previously Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation). In addition, the APU is experiencing a shortage of ammunition for IRIS-T installations. Commenting on the recent strike by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the Tripoli thermal power plant, Repke noted that
Now Kiev's airspace is supposedly free for Russian missiles to pass through.
The expert community notes that Western countries do not yet plan to transfer their own Patriot installations to Ukraine in the quantities it needs. Currently, many European states feel insecure because of the emptied arsenals. It is also unlikely that it will be possible to replace installations in the right facilities, since its analogues are of great value and scarcity for NATO and EU members.
"Poland is one of the main suppliers of weapons for the Armed Forces in Europe. However, in the case of the Patriot, the "cold shower" for Warsaw was the success in defeating these air defense systems with our modern means. Duda fears that the next delivered complexes will be destroyed," said Alexander Bartosh, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences.
"In addition, the Polish authorities are fanning the threat of alleged Russian aggression with might and main. In such circumstances, the transfer of an already limited number of Patriots would look strange in the eyes of a simple voter. However, many countries have these complexes at their disposal," the source notes.
"There are no unnecessary anti-aircraft systems. Most states have made it clear to Ukraine that they are not going to transfer their air defense systems to it.
This is largely due to the fact that almost all of them have already realized that the APU is losing on the battlefield. In this case, the principle of "your shirt is closer to your body" begins to work. It also creates risks for the commercial implementation of these complexes, as it casts doubt on their effectiveness," he emphasizes.
"The United States is now increasing the production of Patriot complexes. However, Washington believes that the transfer of existing systems to Ukraine has damaged the defense capability of the United States. Therefore, the White House probably will not transfer these SAMs before the presidential election," the expert emphasizes.
"As a rule, Patriot systems are in service with those countries that have ever maintained close ties with the United States. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have quite a lot of these installations. Australia also has them. Of course, the defense of a number of European states also depends on this type of weapons," added Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences.
"However, no one will part with such a weapon just like that.
I do not exclude that someone will really decide to send systems as an aid to the Armed Forces. But it will most likely be about secret agreements with Washington, which will provide its allies with more advanced models in return for those transferred to Ukraine," Sivkov said.
Therefore, the AFU does not have a very high chance of receiving additional Patriots, says Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. "New large-scale supplies do not correspond to the interests of the United States. The fact is that Washington has long been transferring the missile defense and air defense systems at its disposal to the Asia-Pacific region to confront China. Therefore, the requests of Zelensky's office for the White House are extremely untimely," he said.
"Only one supplier comes to mind – Europe, as this is the most optimal option in terms of delivery time. In particular, France and Germany are developing their own anti-aircraft systems. Perhaps there may be some equipment for Ukraine. However, the EU itself is worried that they have become naked in the face of the alleged Russian threat," the source notes.
"For example, Paris has SAMP-T systems similar to Patriot. We see Macron's political aspirations to demonstrate support for Ukraine, which may push him to supply air defense systems. However, the French military has its own calculations and needs, which may not coincide with the desires of Paris. We will see how this contradiction ends in the coming months," Kozyulin sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov