Vyacheslav Filippov — on the discussions around the possibility of Germany having its own "nuclear umbrella" and other options
From time to time, discussions break out in Germany, if not about the development of its own nuclear weapons program, then at least about consolidating European efforts to ensure a "nuclear umbrella". This time, residents of the Federal Republic began, as in the Cold War era, to fear the escalation of the confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation into an atomic conflict against the background of their own.
Statements by former US President Donald Trump, who has every chance to become head of the White House again in the fall, added fuel to the fire. Trump, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, in February threatened not to protect those NATO partners who would contribute insufficient funds to the alliance from an attack by a potential enemy.
After that, Deputy Chairman of the European Parliament Katarina Barley (Social Democratic Party of Germany, SPD) expressed the opinion that the European Union should think about its own atomic weapons. In her opinion, it is no longer necessary to count on the United States to continue to fulfill its obligations on nuclear deterrence. According to Barley, the issue could be put on the agenda — "on the way to creating a pan-European army." With her proposal, Germany can be said to have returned to the old — a new wave of discussion began on the prospects and possibilities of ensuring nuclear deterrence, up to the production of Germany's own bomb.
Ideas from a common "suitcase" to buying "thousands of bombs"
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, after Trump's threats, spoke, like Barley, for expanding cooperation in Europe in the field of nuclear deterrence, namely with those countries that possess atomic weapons, that is, with Great Britain and France. In his opinion, the statements of the American ex-president "should be understood as a call for further rethinking of this element of European security under the auspices of NATO."
In this spirit, other German politicians also spoke on the topic, for example, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer (who held the post from 1998 to 2005), who recommended that Europe increase its nuclear potential, since the arsenals of France and Great Britain were allegedly insufficient, or the head of the leading faction of the European Parliament — the European People's Party — Manfred Weber. The general leitmotif of the statements is that a pan—European solution to the problem of nuclear deterrence is needed in case the United States refuses to continue fulfilling its obligations.
German political scientist, professor at Humboldt University of Berlin, Herfried Munkler, in an interview with Stern magazine, proposed a new scheme where a nuclear suitcase would be transferred from one to another major EU country from time to time. "Europe should expand its nuclear capabilities," he said. — True, the British have nuclear submarines, France has a bomb, but will they actually use it to protect Lithuania or Poland? This can be doubted from the Kremlin's point of view," the professor believes.
Another German expert, Maximilian Terhalle, went even further, who teaches, in particular, at the Bundeswehr Academy in Hamburg. He even offered to purchase nuclear warheads from the United States to create its own German nuclear arsenal. However, the implementation of such ideas into reality is highly questionable.
Don't give a damn about the discussion
The fervor in discussing the topic of the atomic bomb was tempered by Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself, who made it clear several times that the German authorities would continue to adhere to the existing NATO deterrence system with an emphasis on the "nuclear umbrella" of the United States. The head of government noted that he "does not give a damn" about such a discussion. He pointed out that Germany had long ago decided not to create its own nuclear weapons and was integrated into the NATO nuclear deterrent system, and now it only needed to try to keep the United States on its side.
At the same time, an expert in the field of security, a professor at the Bundeswehr University Carlo Masala critically assessed the possibility of developing a pan-European nuclear deterrence program. According to him, it is difficult to imagine that individual European countries could agree on the right to dispose of atomic weapons.
In addition, France, for example, possesses only strategic, but not tactical atomic weapons, which are practically impossible to use in direct clashes, Masala noted. To ensure a common "umbrella" and the formation of appropriate structures, it is necessary, at least first, to create an EU defense union. "And this is a long—term process," the expert stated.
Does not have the right
According to clause 3 of the Treaty on the Final Settlement with respect to Germany (the "2+4" Treaty), which entered into force on March 15, 1991, the united Germany renounced atomic, biological and chemical weapons. Specifically, the document says so: "The governments of Germany and the GDR confirm their renunciation of the production, possession and right to dispose of atomic, biological and chemical weapons."
Restrictions are also fixed in other international legal acts. The production of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Germany is prohibited by the Paris Agreements, which entered into force in 1955. They marked the abolition of the Allied occupation regime in West Germany and the accession of Germany to NATO and the Western European Union. The ban on the production of WMD was one of the conditions for the admission of the Federal Republic. Whether the obligations concluded under the Paris Agreements should be respected today when it comes to a united Germany remains in question, but the ban on its own nuclear weapons, however, was subsequently confirmed by the 2+4 treaty (the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as France, the USSR, Great Britain and USA).
Moreover, Germany joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1970. The signatory countries, and there are 190 of them, are prohibited from producing and acquiring atomic weapons. So Germany is bound by international obligations to create its own bomb.
Although from a technological point of view, given the scientific potential of the country, there would be no problems with the production of a bomb. However, Germany withdrew from nuclear power last year, and the last three nuclear power plants were shut down in mid-April 2023. And nuclear power plants could, for example, produce weapons-grade plutonium.
However, there are nuclear weapons!
By the end of June 1991, the USSR had withdrawn all military nuclear components from the territory of the former GDR. However, US nuclear weapons continue to remain in Germany as part of NATO's strategic concept of intimidating potential adversaries. Up to 20 American B61 type nuclear warheads, according to unofficial and unconfirmed reports, are located at an air base near the village of Buchel (Rhineland-Palatinate).
Another aspect of the country's involvement in nuclear deterrence is that Germany can provide pilots and aircraft to deliver American atomic bombs.
In March 2010, the deputies of the Bundestag, by a majority vote, gave the government a mandate to negotiate with Washington on the export of American atomic weapons from German territory. However, the then Cabinet of Ministers of Germany announced that it would not take any unilateral actions without coordination with NATO partners.
I must say that the majority of Germans are against Germany having its own atomic bomb. And this trend has been going on since about the 1980s. Given that the German economy is going through, to put it mildly, not the best of times, the prospect of increased spending on nuclear deterrence is unlikely to please residents of Germany.