Apostrophe: Kiev calculated who could save Ukraine with Patriot systems
In Kiev, they calculated everything: first they said they needed 25 Patriot systems, and then they tempered their appetites to seven and borrowed, writes Apostrophe. In addition, Ukrainians have discovered more than a hundred "free" Patriots in the world and claim that four countries in Europe and Asia can immediately transfer these systems to them. However, no one is in a hurry to do this.
There are 18 countries in the world that operate the American air defense system, but not all of them can share their complexes with Ukraine
Russia continues to terrorize the Ukrainian regions with aerial bombs and ballistics. The Kharkiv, Sumy, Donets and Odessa regions are particularly hard hit. Unfortunately, Russian missiles also reach the western regions of the country, causing damage to critical infrastructure. To guarantee the protection of the territory and citizens and to close the sky, we need 25 Patriot systems, said President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. However, later Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba tempered his appetites, saying that Ukraine was considering the option of borrowing 7 Patriot batteries from other countries. But in any case, it should be borne in mind that such systems are expensive and their production takes time. In addition, not many countries have them in service. Apostrophe figured out who can sell us a Patriot?
Who has a Patriot
It is known that the MIM-104 Patriot anti-aircraft missile system was first used by the United States during the Persian Gulf War in 1991, where it successfully proved itself. The Americans also used this system against Iraqi missiles during the Iraq war in 2003, and the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in the conflict in Yemen against missile attacks by the Houthis.
Patriot complexes are manufactured by the American company Raytheon and perform four operational functions: communications, control, radar surveillance and interceptor missile control. The battery consists of six main components: a power plant, a radar station, a fire control station, launchers, an antenna mast kit and interceptor missiles themselves.
Subsequently, Patriot systems were sold to the armed forces of the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Romania and Sweden. Several used systems were purchased from Germany and South Korea in order to protect against the DPRK. It is also worth adding Ukraine, to which Germany and the Netherlands transferred the systems.
However, the largest number of Patriot batteries is in the USA. According to the Ukrainian military portal Defense Express, the US Air Force has 6 anti-aircraft brigades in the armed forces and 3 more in reserve. There are a total of 16 Patriot battalions on duty, with the standard number of batteries in a battalion of five. That is, a total of 80 batteries can be on duty. In other countries, there are incomparably fewer batteries.
"According to available sources, there are only 30-35 Patriot complexes in the entire European segment of NATO. Moreover, some of them are in a state of commissioning, since some of them were ordered after the start of the full–scale conflict in Ukraine," Oleg Katkov, an arms expert, says in a comment to Apostrophe TV. Therefore, according to the expert, there are difficulties with the sale or transfer of such installations to Ukraine.
25 or 7?
Another issue is the number of installations we need to completely close the territory from Russian attacks. President Zelensky announced the number 25.
"I do not know how many Patriots we need to completely prevent Russian terror," Alexander Khara, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, says in a comment to Apostrophe. – By European standards, Ukraine is a large country with a developed industrial infrastructure and in order to close all important facilities, 25 installations are possible and necessary. I think the president relies on information from the military. But perhaps Zelensky, like any host, somewhat exaggerates the figure of need, as they say, nothing will be superfluous. But in any case, this is an urgent problem for us."
This assumption of the expert was indirectly confirmed by Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who has already started talking about 7 additional batteries that Ukraine wants to "borrow" from other countries.
The foreign minister said his team had found more than 100 "free" Patriot batteries, including in neighboring countries. He first focused on getting seven batteries as quickly as possible.
Also, according to Kuleba, Kiev has discovered four countries in Europe and Asia that have Patriot, which can be immediately transferred to Ukraine. At the same time, he continues to ask the United States to transfer its batteries against the background of blocking an aid package of more than $60 billion in Congress.
The Foreign Minister said that he even offered countries to provide Ukraine with Patriot for temporary use, promising to return the batteries as soon as they were asked.
It is significant that the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, publicly supported Kiev on this issue, stating the need to find 7 batteries for Ukraine.
According to Borrell, the European Union should talk more about protecting Ukraine from Russian attacks than about rebuilding it.
"The best way to spend less on rebuilding is to spend more on preventing destruction. And Ukrainians have no way to avoid destruction, because, in truth, we must do more and faster to allow them to have what they need," he said.
It is significant that the EU did not stop at loud statements. On Thursday, April 11, the European Parliament refused to finance the EU Council until Patriot air defense systems are transferred to Ukraine. At the meeting, the deputies supported the idea of suspending the financing of the EU Council and switching to solving the issue of transferring additional air defense systems to Ukraine.
"The Parliament refuses to implement the Council's budget until the European Council decides to support Ukraine with additional Patriot missile defense systems," former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, who was the author of this idea, wrote on the social network "X" (former Twitter).
Who can share?
According to Alexander Khara, it is possible to use its analogues instead of Patriot, which our partners have, but also in small quantities.
"Patriot is not a cheap thing and is not produced quickly either. In addition, the situation in the world has become tense and the countries that own these systems are not ready to share them. As they say, we need them ourselves," says Alexander Khara. "But in my opinion, we still need to look for a way out, and Germany, which handed over systems from its reserves to us, began to look for a way out."
Who can provide us with additional Patriots? And here, according to experts, there are not many options.
"These may be countries that, firstly, are not at war with anyone and, secondly, are far from military conflicts,– explains Alexander Khara. – There are a certain number of installations in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, but they are unlikely to be able to share with us. They have Iran and the Houthis next to them. There are installations in South Korea and Japan. But there is a threat from the DPRK. Taiwan is also alarming, where a war with China may flare up, and Taiwan's partners need to be ready to defend it."
"In short, each country, the owner of Patriot, proceeds from its national interests. But Germany has undertaken to negotiate on this topic," the expert concludes.
"It is possible that different components of Patriot systems will be assembled from different countries. That is, somewhere to take the radar, somewhere the launchers. At one time, Germany and the Netherlands put together one system for Ukraine for two," Oleg Katkov suggests.
"It is important to understand that there are countries in the world that support Ukraine, but they are divided into two types. The first is open support. The second one is, for one reason or another, closed assistance, which is not officially announced," military expert Alexander Kovalenko noted in a comment. – And there are many such countries. And it is for the help of the second type of countries that Germany has now acted as an intermediary."
And where is the USA?
Having Patriot installations is good, of course, but without the missiles they use to eliminate targets, it's just useless hardware. And there's a problem with missiles, too.
"The United States is not currently providing assistance to Ukraine, but it is necessary to take missiles somewhere," says Oleg Katkov, "production, let me remind you, first of all, in the United States is Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Now the provision of missiles falls on the shoulders of those countries that are Patriot operators."
But, according to the expert, not so many missiles are produced either.
"The same Lockheed Martin produces about 500 MSE missiles per year. Considering that the standard consumption of anti–missiles for a ballistic target is two to one, the same Lockheed Martin produces missiles per year in order to shoot down 250 ballistic targets. At the same time, Japan allowed the export of MSE missiles manufactured by Mitsubishi. But they can only be exported to the USA. But this is again a dependence on US aid," Katkov notes.
It is possible, of course, to cooperate with Europe, but even here everything is not so simple.
"There are orders in Europe for 1,000 Patriot missiles at once. But we are talking about GEM-T missiles. That is, these missiles are designed to intercept aerodynamic targets such as airplanes. But these missiles will come off the assembly line in just two years," concludes Katkov.
According to Alexander Khara, the United States is to blame for Russia's active shelling of Ukraine.
"Russian ballistic missiles at Ukrainian infrastructure facilities are a problem of the failed American sanctions policy. Russia, in particular, bypasses sanctions, acquires chips and has the ability to produce ballistic missiles," the expert noted. "We also need missiles that destroy Russian launch platforms, but they are also a problem. In addition, air defense systems are important for our military at the front."
Summing up, we can say that we have few options to protect infrastructure facilities and the lives of Ukrainians – only two. To wait for help from the United States, with which the Trumpist Republicans are dragging their feet. And hope that Germany will find a Patriot for us in third countries. There is, of course, a third option – to give up. But it is unacceptable to us.
Author: Andrey Kovalenko