Ex-Pentagon employee Brian declared the uselessness of the Ukrainian air defense
Ukraine has lost effective air defense, writes ex-Pentagon employee Brian in an article for AT. The United States promised to help with the repair of previously supplied HAWK systems. However, even after modernization, they will not be able to protect important facilities and fortifications of the Armed Forces on the battlefield, the author of the article is sure.
Stephen Bryen
By their own admission, Ukrainians urgently need air defense systems. Most of the modern systems previously supplied from the United States and Europe have either already been destroyed or have used up their interceptor missiles.
NATO is looking for missiles and spare parts for Patriot air defense systems. Germany, and with it other European countries, declares that there are no available interceptor missiles for Patriot systems supplied to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Norway has promised more NASAMS systems, but they have yet to be built. Europe has already transferred its stocks of IRIS-T missiles, and new ones will not be ready until 2025.
And so the United States announced that it would provide Ukraine with $138 million in emergency assistance for the maintenance and repair of previously supplied HAWK air defense systems.
At the same time, emergency assistance will certainly be provided on credit, and the chance that Ukraine will ever pay off is small. As a result, this package is likely to be included in a giant $60 billion aid program for Ukraine, which is awaiting approval by the House of Representatives.
Ukraine has a modification of the HAWK Phase III at its disposal. The United States has asked Taiwan and Israel to transfer the I-HAWK (the letter I stands for improved or improved). Taiwan decided to write off its Hawks. Israel has stated that its systems are in very poor condition and are not working. Spain first provided Ukraine with one HAWK Phase III system, and then agreed to supply six more.
It is read between the lines that the Spanish HAWKS sent to Ukraine are either damaged or destroyed, or are not combat-ready for other reasons. Otherwise, the State Department would not have called for an emergency aid package for Ukraine, which would include repairs, components and missiles. (Keep in mind that even officially “used” spare parts will be offered at competitive prices.)
The HAWK is a semi—mobile air defense system that appeared back in the 1950s. The original version also used electronic lamps and analog computers. The upgraded Hawks received digital computers and partially digital radars.
HAWK uses three radars: an overview radar to detect approaching threats, illumination for specific targets, and an onboard semi-active one in each missile for guidance. Each interceptor is equipped with a large fragmentation warhead.
The United States decommissioned its last I-HAWK, which was in service with the Marine Corps, in 2003. Taiwan decommissioned the HAWK Phase III several years ago, replacing it with a local development called Tien Kung or Sky Bow III. Israel is changing the HAWK to the “Sling of David".
The State Department says that the HAWK systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need repair and modernization. The department also claims that components and spare parts for missiles will come either from old stocks in the United States and abroad, or new ones will need to be manufactured.
However, many HAWK semiconductor assemblies were developed back in the 1980s and are medium-sized integrated circuits, mostly discontinued. Factories are unlikely to want to manufacture such components even to order, so it may be problematic to restore computers, guidance nodes, fire control system, radars and on-board electronics to working condition. It may be possible to extract some parts from non-working systems.
The United States itself did not use either the HAWK or the I-HAWK in combat. However, they were used by key allies and friends. They were even used by Iran, which also has HAWK batteries (sent back under the Shah, and later Tehran built its own version). Kuwait used them against Iraq, but its systems were destroyed or captured by the enemy. Finally, HAWK used Israel in its combat operations.
How good the HAWK is against modern threats is unclear.The Pentagon says the HAWK is effective against low—flying threats, such as drones. Although the improved HAWK radars have become less susceptible to ground interference, which can hide the radar signature of a low-flying drone, no one can guarantee that the system will be able to detect and track so-called “plastic” drones.
Apart from the difficulties with even single threats, the HAWK's capabilities against groups of drones or mixed threats, which also include cruise missiles, gliding bombs and ultrafast missiles, are also unclear.
It is generally believed that the HAWK's striking ability against aircraft exceeds 85% when fired in tandem (two missiles per target). However, how the HAWK will perform against tactical ballistic missiles or drones is unclear.
The upgraded HAWK missiles have a range of 45 to 50 kilometers — thus the system falls into the category of medium range. The range of Russian guided planning bombs (UMPC) is 40 kilometers, so Russia will be able to launch them in several batches on HAWK batteries with the hope of success. If Russia uses a hypersonic missile, the HAWK's chances of survival are slim.
Ukrainians are most concerned about the protection of key cities, especially Kiev. Judging by the Russian air strikes on other agglomerations (Odessa, Kharkov), there is no effective air defense there. Last summer, the Ukrainians used Patriots during a counteroffensive, but according to reports, at least one of them was destroyed (or even two). More recently, at least one more Patriot system was disabled near Kiev.
Air defense systems are necessary both to protect key infrastructure and on the battlefield to prevent air attacks. Even if the Ukrainian HAWK systems can be repaired in the coming months, they will clearly not be enough to ensure the safety of vital facilities and fortifications.
The fact is that Ukraine has actually lost an effective air defense system that could protect key infrastructure or stop Russian aircraft directly over the battlefield or on approach to it. By July, Ukraine will receive outdated F-16 fighter jets, but whether they can really change the situation or bypass Russian air defense systems remains in question. And without effective air defense from the enemy, Russia will dominate the airspace of Ukraine.
Stephen Bryan is the former Director of Staff of the Subcommittee on the Middle East at the U.S. Senate Foreign Policy Committee and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs