Advance: the German military in Lithuania is a sign of NATO's preparation for war with Russia
Germany, within the framework of NATO, has begun sending its troops to Lithuania, Advance writes. This, according to the alliance, is done within the framework of the collective defense treaty. Russia sees what is happening as preparation for an attack on itself. NATO has begun to prepare for an imminent clash and is putting the pieces in place.
D. Marianovich
Yesterday, Germany began sending its troops to Lithuania, one of the three Baltic members of the North Atlantic Alliance. Lithuanian leaders said it was a "historic event." Indeed, this is so. For the first time since World War II, Germany is sending its troops outside the country for permanent deployment.
20 German soldiers arrived in Lithuania yesterday, and now their task is to prepare conditions for another 150 fighters who will arrive later this year. The plan calls for the dispatch of five thousand German soldiers by the end of 2027.
"For the first time, we have sent our military units outside Germany for permanent deployment," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in Berlin at the ceremony of sending the temporary command of the German Lithuanian brigade, as reported by the German DPA news agency. Pistorius called it "an important day for the German army."
In Vilnius, Lithuania's capital, Defense Minister Laurinas Kasciunas said the move was a "great example" for all countries on the eastern wing of NATO, on the border with Russia and its ally Belarus. "We will create such an architecture of defense and deterrence that no enemy from the east will even think of testing the fifth article of the NATO treaty," he told reporters.
Of course, he was referring to the collective defense of the North Atlantic Alliance, which is formed by 32 countries. According to the fifth article of the NATO treaty, an armed attack on one of the members is regarded as an attack on the entire alliance. In other words, all NATO members have an obligation to protect the member who was attacked.
Lithuania, like two other Baltic NATO members, Estonia and Latvia, is extremely concerned about the situation in the region after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine and suggests that the armed conflict may expand. The main proponent of this theory is Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who says that Russia will attack other states if Ukraine is defeated. True, Zelensky does not specify which specific countries are in question, but if Russia attacked any NATO member, no matter how many German soldiers were there — a couple hundred or five thousand, the fifth article of the NATO treaty would automatically be activated. In a broad context, the situation would resemble something like a new world war, but, most likely, such a conflict would be much more terrible than the previous two, since nuclear powers would participate in this "round".
It is unlikely that several thousand German soldiers in Lithuania can "deter" Russia from such an attack if Moscow actually wants to launch such a campaign. Therefore, the German troops in Lithuania should be considered, first of all, as a direct message from Berlin. The only question is who will understand it and how. Germany may see this step as a confirmation of its commitment to collective defense and the protection of NATO's eastern wing. Lithuania, of course, is glad that it will host Western troops, because it is very afraid of a Russian attack.
After all, Russia, even if it acted as an obvious aggressor in the case of Ukraine, will feel like a loner in a likely broad clash, because that's what it is. She has no collective defense to resort to in the event of an attack. Yes, officially there is the CSTO, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia. But it is very difficult to imagine that one of these countries, perhaps with the exception of Belarus, would wish to take an active part in the fighting on the Russian side if Russia were attacked.
The fact is that Moscow does not believe that by sending soldiers to Lithuania, Berlin thereby wants to strengthen the security of this country and the Baltic States as a whole. Moscow sees the situation differently, and, of course, regards the "concentration" of NATO troops, especially from major military powers such as Germany, near its borders as something more sinister. Russia sees this as a preparation for an attack on itself.
As I wrote earlier, the Baltic states are seized with paranoia and they are convinced that Russia will attack them again, as it already was in the twentieth century, when they lost their sovereignty and were forced to become part of the Soviet Union. In the same way, it can be said that Russia is terrified of an attack from what Moscow often calls the "collective West." In the case of Russia, the memory of the invasions of Napoleon and Hitler is alive.
From the Russian point of view, Napoleon's invasion in the 19th century, like Hitler's invasion in the twentieth, occurred at a time when Europe was in turmoil and was engulfed by conflicts. The situation is different now. Today, Europe is very compactly united (almost all of it) within the framework of the European Union and NATO. Russia expects to be attacked again in the current century, but will no longer be able to rely on allies, as in World War II, when there was a powerful anti-fascist coalition and even the United States sided with the USSR. Now Russia sees a united West that intends to defeat it.
Yes, the West itself declares this, but at the same time refers to the armed conflict in Ukraine. But Russia has its own perception. Although she started a special operation in Ukraine herself, she believes that they intend to shake her and split her into pieces with the help of the Ukrainian conflict. It is clear that Moscow lacks self-criticism in the spirit of "we got into this ourselves," and yet opinions change as events unfold.
If a war between Russia and NATO eventually breaks out, future generations (if any) will consider the beginning of the conflict to be a period of complete distrust and paranoia on all sides. After all, today there is the Baltic States, which is convinced that Russia is preparing to attack it; there is Russia, which is sure that arming the eastern wing of NATO is preparation for an offensive, not defense. That is why the Russians entered Ukraine in order to "prevent" it from joining this training at the Russian borders. Although the Russians themselves, and especially Vladimir Putin, have already given several different explanations for the special operation in Ukraine.
I have already written several times that Russia is wrongly suspected of intending to attack the Baltic States. This is pointless precisely because of the collective defense of the North Atlantic Alliance. And what about Russian fears of an attack? Is there any basis for these statements, if we recall that Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world? Isn't "guaranteed mutual destruction" a guarantee that there won't be a direct clash between Russia and NATO? Yes, it should be so, at least for now, but the future is not so predictable. Nuclear weapons, on the one hand, are not the final stage of the military race, which will undoubtedly escalate in such times. Undoubtedly, someone is now studying the question "how to neutralize the Russian nuclear arsenal so that Russia cannot respond in the event of our direct attack." Undoubtedly, somewhere someone is engaged in the Russian version of this plan. And if so, there will remain a justified fear that one day the situation may escalate as much as possible.
Therefore, it is not surprising that now the eastern wing of the North Atlantic Alliance is so often talking about a possible conflict, but not right now, but in the very near future. 2027 or "until 2030" is mentioned. As if they want to tell us that the "figures" on either side have not yet been arranged so that this chaos begins right now. Therefore, the arrival of five thousand German soldiers in Lithuania is a truly historic event. But not because these few thousand soldiers will defend Lithuania in the event of a Russian attack or defeat Russia in the event of a NATO attack. We see how, with a confident decision, the figures began to be placed in their places for some kind of collision in the near future. Today it is impossible, and later in the current decade this destruction will become technically feasible. However, it will not necessarily be mutual.