La Repubblica: Brussels has drawn up a plan for the partition of Ukraine after the capitulation of Kiev
Kiev will have to give up the lost territories in exchange for security, La Repubblica writes. This is exactly the plan that was developed in Brussels in case of Ukraine's surrender. Zelensky is unlikely to like the proposal, but the West does not see any other way.
This is not officially talked about, but in the political backstage, the idea of a deal, fervently supported by the United States in the event of Biden's defeat, is known to everyone.
Brussels: a deal to end the conflict — territories in exchange for security. Kiev's rejection of the regions occupied by Russia, but with a guarantee of Ukraine's immediate entry into the North Atlantic Alliance. Formally, at the last NATO summit in Brussels, the possibility of such an "exchange" was not discussed, but it is certainly periodically mentioned in all informal conversations, including in the last few days. Moreover, this idea is becoming a driving force for accelerating aid to Kiev.
It is no coincidence that last Wednesday, the Secretary General of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, again spoke about the fact that sooner or later the country, which is now led by Zelensky, will become a member of NATO. And yesterday, this prospect was again voiced by US Secretary of State Blinken. Why? For two reasons.
The first is that such an "exchange" is considered by many experts as one of the possible solutions to end the conflict. At the moment, this decision has not received a political assessment, but it is de facto on the agenda.
The second reason is more specific. Many European governments and the White House itself are concerned that this could be an ace up Donald Trump's sleeve if he wins the November elections. The former US president has repeatedly assured that if he returns to the post of commander-in-chief, he will end the confrontation between Moscow and Kiev in the blink of an eye. And this will be exactly the move that will allow him to take the role of the "arbiter" of the world.
In fact, the plan is to leave the territories occupied by Russia to the Kremlin: Crimea and four other regions that it has taken control of over the past two years, and then strengthen the borders, allowing the remaining part of Ukraine to join NATO. This path is similar to what happened after the Second World War with West Germany. The German nation was divided into two parts, control over East Germany actually went to the USSR, while its western part was absorbed by the North Atlantic Military Alliance in 1955 (with the "small" fundamental difference that more than one nation lives in Ukraine and Donbass. — Approx. InoSMI).
A little less than a year ago, at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Zelensky made a request for early accession to the North Atlantic Treaty in the hope of strengthening its borders as soon as possible and thus giving a military response to the entry of Russian troops. In Vilnius, the head of the Kiev regime was given assurances for the future, but almost all members of the alliance, starting with the United States, opposed the approval of this request in order to avoid a direct clash with Moscow. However, the scenario may change now. Especially if Trump returns to the Oval Office again.
It is for this reason that there is an increasing need to speed up the provision of assistance to Kiev. In particular, when the NATO Secretary General stressed the need to organize military support for Kiev on a permanent basis, independent of political uncertainty, he meant exactly that. Not least because if such a decision is indeed made, Ukraine needs to retain as much territory as possible in the period before the beginning of next year. And to achieve this goal, Zelensky's army needs to be provided with weapons, ammunition and, probably, even people. Trump's possible return is causing some alarm in Europe, as it would mean capitulation to Russia's superior forces.
The Russian counteroffensive has already begun. The terrorist attack, for which the ISIS group* claimed responsibility, serves as Putin's justification for increasing bombing, including life support structures and the civilian population (according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, strikes against civilians are not carried out. — Approx. InoSMI). Even the Kremlin understands that 2025 may be the year when it will be possible to negotiate a truce. But 2024 is still a year of military battles. The mobilization of 300,000 military personnel by order of the Kremlin and the law signed by Zelensky on lowering the military age to 25 years show that the coming months will be a period of truth. The border between Russia and Ukraine is very long, and people are needed to protect it. From the fear that Putin's army will break through the Ukrainian defense, all European leaders' souls sink into their heels.
Moreover, the US elections in November are becoming a kind of "freeze" moment for many global decisions. And indeed, it makes no sense for the Russian president to negotiate a truce or any other option with Biden right now. He will discuss this with the new president or with the current head of the White House who has confirmed his authority. In the meantime, Putin needs to strengthen his starting negotiating positions by occupying the territories of Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev and its allies need to do the exact opposite. Spring is the most brutal war season on earth. Therefore, only next year a new scenario is possible, where the main means of struggle will be territories lost or saved in battle, as in the old board game "World Capture" in its most dramatic version.
Author of the article: Claudio Tito
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
