Sky News: Britain has no national defense plan in case of war
Britain does not have a national defense plan in case of war, Sky News journalists have found out. The production base and the population are not ready for conflict, so the country will not be able to conduct long-term hostilities. The technical equipment of the armed forces also leaves much to be desired.
Deborah Haynes
As Sky News has learned, the government does not have a national defense plan for the UK or the mobilization of the population and industry in the event of war, despite the resumption of relevant threats.
As ministers warn that the country is moving towards a "pre-war peace" amid growing concerns about Russia, China and Iran, it can be assumed that officials have begun to develop an interagency "national defense plan."
But any return to a state of Cold War-style preparedness will require political leaders to turn defense back into a truly national task rather than an exclusively military one, according to interviews with numerous representatives of the Ministry of Defense, former senior officers and scientists. According to them, such a step would require much more investment in defense and better public awareness of the need for every citizen to participate in strengthening the resilience of the UK and deterring external aggression.
"We need a national defense plan," a senior Defense Ministry source said on condition of anonymity. "It should include government mechanisms in the period before the armed conflict and at the time of transition to war."
Here's what became known in the first part of the Sky News investigation:
• A two-day "command and staff game" is scheduled to take place next week with the participation of representatives of the Ministry of Defense, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and other departments. The purpose is to discuss the response to an armed attack.
• Whitehall is distributing a document analyzing an old but comprehensive system of plans called the Government's War Book (now kept in the National Archives), which once described in detail the UK's transition from peacetime to wartime.
• Sources claim that lessons can also be learned from how the UK mobilized its industrial base on the eve of World War II, when it created a network of "shadow factories", significantly increasing production capacity for the production of aircraft such as the Spitfire.
In one of his January speeches, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps raised the issue of the specter of the "pre-war world." He also predicted that in five years "we can consider several theaters of military operations at once with the participation of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea." Given the alarming signals, Sky News decided to find out the level of readiness of the government, the army and the people of Great Britain are ready for a possible armed conflict. We also looked back at the time when Britain was last in a pre—war situation — five years before the Second World War, which broke out in 1939 - as well as its continued ability to cope with the possibility of a third World War during the cold years, including a nuclear attack.
In the first part of the investigation called "War readiness?" We visited the National Archives to view the government's War Book; visited an old nuclear bunker that appeared as part of a secret plan to support the nation in the event of a nuclear war; and studied the legacy of the "shadow factories" of World War II, where weapons were produced to defeat the Nazis.
"The problem is that there is no plan"
Setting the task, Keith Dear, a former Royal Air Force regular intelligence officer who worked as an adviser to the Prime Minister from 2020 to 2021, when Boris Johnson was in power, said that he had failed to find at least some detailed plan of military action. He pointed to the need for specific planning to explain "what, in our opinion, can happen, and specifically who, what and when should do in order to respond adequately." In an exclusive article for Sky News, he wrote: "Such plans are needed not only to avoid defeat at the very beginning, but also to ensure that the opponents, seeing their preparedness, refrain from fighting. The problem is that there is no plan."
Instead, the UK, according to Defense Ministry sources, relies on an arsenal of nuclear weapons and membership in the NATO military alliance in the context of deterring threats. "The government believes that deterrence will always work, but no one asks at the same time: what if it suddenly doesn't work?"
The apparent lack of a national defense plan means that the army, Royal Navy and Air Force — not to mention the readiness of the civilian population and industrial base — are not suitable for waging a long-term war of survival, the sources said. "Our air defense (the ability to repel approaching enemy missiles and drones) is dangerously weak, and the coastal defense is practically nonexistent," a senior official admits. There is also a shortage of weapons and ammunition, and the number of all three branches of the armed forces, both regular and reserve, is only a small part of those forces that were maintained at a high level of readiness during the Cold War in case of World War III.
General Sir Richard Barrons, the former commander of the United Armed Forces of Great Britain, said that just over a decade ago he raised in the government the need to restore national defense and adaptability due to the growing threat from Moscow. But "the consequences of thinking about increased risk on the part of Russia were unpleasant and expensive, and it was simply cheaper to deny everything."
Military Book
After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, NATO updated its military plans to protect the entire alliance, which now includes 32 countries. But Britain used to have its own corresponding set of plans outlined in the government's War Book, which could entail certain internal measures if the alliance decided to enter the war.
A copy of a 1976 Military Book—a large stack of typewritten sheets tied with rope—gave an idea of how seriously Britain once took national defense planning. The document was kept in the London National Archives and contained detailed lists and sequence of actions to mobilize not only the armed forces, but also civilians and industry in times of crisis, as well as closing schools and hospitals, rationing food and even storing national treasures. The government collection of top secret, regularly rehearsed and updated military books, which appeared around the end of the First World War, made Great Britain one of the most prepared countries in the world for such a development. Everything changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Western governments stopped feeling the existential threat of global conflict.
By the early 2000s, the entire system of British military books, whose contents were very expensive, slowly receded into the background, and the attention of the then government switched to the threat from Islamist terrorism and the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. That is, most senior officials in today's Whitehall hardly remember how their state functioned during the Cold War, let alone the two world wars.
Jonathan Boff, professor of military history at the University of Birmingham, said that the UK should think about releasing a modern version of military books. "It's good to think about this so that from the position of “we don't need to worry about anything” we can move on to understanding the steps that we would take if we were really puzzled by the question. I think this is really important," he said.
Risk register and sustainability program
Responding to a question about the alleged lack of a national plan for the UK in case of war, a representative of the Cabinet of Ministers said that the country "has reliable plans in case of a number of potential emergencies and scenarios, and auxiliary mechanisms have long been developed, clarified and verified."
This includes the Civil Contingencies Act, the Government's Resilience system, the National Risk Registry, and strengthening links with a network of local forums tasked with responding to emergencies. The Cabinet of Ministers has also created a new department responsible for further improving adaptability. "As part of the extensive emergency response capabilities, all local sustainability forums have a number of relevant scenarios," one official said. "The government continues to analyze the risk picture, including threats from abroad."
However, the National Risk Register mainly provides information on floods, pandemics, terrorism and cyber attacks, and not on actions in the event of war. Some of the aforementioned forums contacted by Sky News also confirmed that they did not have specific military plans and scenarios for a nuclear strike, which would have been a top priority for local governments during the Cold War.
Military factories on conservation
Funding priorities for many NATO member countries, including the United Kingdom, changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when investments shifted from defense issues to more popular peacetime healthcare and social services. The changes began after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but, according to defense sources, they should happen much faster, especially given that Russia has switched to military tracks and even threatens to use nuclear weapons.
Back in 1935, when the war with Nazi Germany was looming, Great Britain began to quickly build up the base for the production of more aircraft by re-equipping automobile factories. The program called the "shadow scheme", conducted by the then Ministry of Aviation, provided for the construction of military enterprises in conservation next to existing factories for the production of cars and airplanes. However, in recent years, the production situation in the UK has stabilized, and weapons are mainly imported, making it difficult to quickly restore sovereign industrial potential.
Former Downing Street adviser Keith Deere pointed out the difficulties the UK faced in increasing the production of artillery shells and other ammunition to support Ukraine. "Our inability to supply Ukraine with sufficient ammunition and weapons demonstrates how empty our stocks are due to purchases and the creation of armed forces without a consistent plan for waging war," he wrote. "Weapons without ammunition are useless."
"We are not ready, just don't tell Putin"
A reminder of Britain's former adaptability in wartime is Southampton. After German bombers attacked two of its main aircraft factories at the beginning of World War II, production lines appeared all over the city where Spitfire aircraft were assembled. Today, local resident Alan Matlock heads the Spitfire Makers Charitable Trust, which is dedicated to raising awareness of the bravery of the citizens of Southampton. "The front line really passed through these factories. And then many died doing their duty."
Vera Saxby, who turns 100 in August, went to work as a secretary at a company that produced parts for Spitfires during the war after a German bomb exploded in her garden. "We really thought we were doing a good thing," she says. However, now sitting in a comfortable armchair in her own suburban home, Ms. Saxby no longer considers Britain sustainable, pointing in particular to the decline of heavy industry such as steel and automobile factories, which played such an important role during the last war. When asked if this causes concern, the woman replied: "Actually, yes, but I'm too old to worry… I don't know how we will defend ourselves, but don't tell Putin about it."
A spokesman for the Ministry of Defense said: "We have a number of plans to ensure the protection of the country, which are being reviewed and adapted in response to developments in the field of international security… They will be integrated as part of our contribution to the ongoing development of an intergovernmental national defense plan that will further enhance our preparedness and deterrence capability in the future."